AGORA tá COMPROVADO: O MUNDO dos GAMES NUNCA MAIS será o MESMO

Summary

The panel discusses whether the rising budgets of AAA games are sustainable, using Gears of War: E-Day as its main example.

Gears of War: E-Day and its reported budget

The speakers cite an estimated $500 million development budget, excluding marketing. They also mention estimates of around 300,000 sales and $37 million in revenue during the first few days. Game Pass players do not count as individual sales. One speaker suggests that even an optimistic total of $50 million in sales would fall far short of the game’s costs.

The panel describes E-Day as polished, technically advanced, attractive, and well received by critics and players. But they question whether a roughly 15-hour game needed to cost so much, and worry that Xbox could later call it a financial failure despite its positive reception.

Other blockbuster budgets

The discussion compares Gears’ reported cost with estimates of $1.5 billion for GTA 6 and nearly $400 million for Marvel’s Wolverine. The panel considers GTA 6 an exceptional case because its expected sales may justify the expense. Call of Duty is also cited as a costly franchise that can recoup investment through strong sales and ongoing service revenue.

Making excellent games more efficiently

The speakers argue that Western studios need to make excellent games more efficiently. They suggest that very large budgets can encourage wasteful decisions, while tighter constraints may spur creativity. Examples of comparatively modest budgets include:

• Black Myth: Wukong: estimated at $40 million for production, or about $70 million overall
• Phantom Blade Zero: about $50 million
• Expedition: under $10 million
• Control: reportedly about $55 million

The panel also mentions Stardew Valley, Minecraft, and Balatro as standout games created with limited resources. The Witcher 3, said to have cost around $80 million, is cited as a highly successful game made for much less than today’s biggest productions.

Cost-cutting and layoffs

The speakers push back against the idea that reducing costs simply means firing staff. They say companies should first examine duplication, inefficient processes, technology choices, outside services, and expensive production decisions. Layoffs may sometimes be necessary, but they should not be the first or only response.

Xbox management and platform strategy

The panel places responsibility on Xbox management to control project budgets and oversee studios. It discusses the decision to keep Gears off PlayStation, while noting that a leaked official poster reportedly showed a PlayStation 5 version. The speakers speculate that the platform decision may have been made to appeal to the Xbox community, and that a PlayStation release could still happen later.

Why budgets balloon

The speakers suggest that large companies may spend more simply because the budget is available. Managers may also use their full allocation to avoid having it reduced the following year. They criticize projects that prioritize visual realism over game design, mechanics, and world quality.

Gamers and sources mentioned

People named: Davy/Dave, Vini, Thaís, Caik, Will, Lairon, Phil Spencer, Sarah Bond, Matt Booty, and Asha Sharma.

Sources cited: The New York Times, an Xbox podcast, and estimates and reports discussed by the panel.