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Мы стоим на пороге нового конфликта! Что нас ждет дальше? Андрей Безруков про США, Россию и кризис

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Summary

This document summarizes the main points from Andrey Bezrukov’s analysis on the changing global order, Russia’s strategic position, military-technical developments, economic risks, policy prescriptions, and investment views.

The world is entering a new phase of geopolitical and technological redistribution: the post–WWII globalized order and U.S. hegemony are eroding as competing techno‑economic macroregions form around the United States, China, and regional coalitions, driven by a new technological cycle (AI, genetics, microelectronics, directed‑energy systems, advanced drones).

Big-picture diagnosis

  • A new technological cycle (AI, genetics, microelectronics, directed‑energy systems, advanced drones) will reshape economies, societies, and power balances.
  • The post–World War II globalized order and U.S. hegemonic position are eroding.
  • Competing techno‑economic macroregions (blocs) are forming around the United States, China, and regional coalitions.

Russia’s strategic situation and options

  • Bezrukov’s 2016 forecast (Russia and the World in 2020) anticipated a global redistribution; if the West failed to stop Russia’s path to sovereignty, the global order would evolve differently — a process he argues is now underway.
  • Russia cannot economically match the U.S. or China but remains a military great power.
  • Realistic strategy: build a larger integrated economic space with complementary partners (India, Iran, Southeast Asian states, and other states seeking to preserve sovereignty) to create scale for investment in defense, science, and industry.
  • The declared aim of the “special military operation” is to remove long‑term security threats on Russia’s western borders by ensuring any remaining Ukrainian territory cannot become a future military threat (no large industrial base, no seaport access, no political will to rearm).
  • Negotiated security guarantees acceptable to Russia are presented as the condition for stopping the operation.

War and military technology

  • A revolution in military affairs: war increasingly spans information warfare, network interdiction, swarms of drones, remote delivery of small but highly destructive devices, experiments with subcritical nuclear techniques, and directed-energy weapons.
  • These developments complicate nuclear deterrence and lower thresholds for new kinds of strategic attacks.
  • Nations are learning to exploit communications and commercial technology to monitor and disable systems (examples cited: incidents in Iran, Venezuela, and attacks similar to Operation Spider Web).
  • New methods create asymmetric vulnerabilities across states and systems.

Scenarios for the conflict’s end

  1. Protracted attrition / slow advance with drawn‑out negotiations
    • Western aim may be to prolong fighting to exhaust Russian resources.
  2. Breakthrough / failure at the Ukrainian front and quicker resolution
    • Possible if Ukrainian human and Western economic support collapses.
  3. A negotiated settlement on Western terms
    • Considered unlikely politically and socially within Russia.

Economic outlook and risks

  • Bezrukov warns of an overheated global asset bubble (AI hype compared to the dot‑com bubble); a major correction could trigger a deep global crisis that would hit resource exporters hard.
  • Russia has partial insulation from global capital-market volatility due to financial disconnection since sanctions, but long‑term vulnerabilities include deindustrialization and overreliance on the resource economy.
  • Priorities for resilience and development:
    • Rebuild production and manufacturing base
    • Develop microelectronics and advanced technologies
    • Restore logistics capabilities (aviation, engines, rail, shipping)
    • Strengthen energy sector, engineering, and scientific base
    • Create a middle class and social stability through industrial development

Policy criticism and prescriptions

  • Critique of current monetary policy:
    • The Central Bank’s tight, high key‑rate, anti‑inflation stance is judged counterproductive for industrial development and financing innovation; Bezrukov describes this as near‑sabotage of national development.
    • He grades the financial/economic bloc negatively for insufficient creativity and adaptability.
  • Calls for proactive state policy:
    • Long‑term strategic planning (infrastructure, industrial priorities, human capital)
    • Targeted monetary and fiscal measures, including targeted issuance to finance growth (as used by other rapid developers)
    • A sovereign‑oriented monetary and financial framework (stronger sovereign ruble, domestic investment instruments)
  • The state must create predictable, long‑horizon frameworks so businesses can plan (example: Rosatom’s 100‑year horizon).
  • Major infrastructure and industrial projects will require state leadership and patient finance.

Technology, entrepreneurship, and capital allocation

  • Microelectronics is foundational for AI, information systems, and economic sovereignty.
  • Russia possesses a strong scientific and mathematical education base and engineering competence; technological reconstruction is feasible with appropriate policies and market scale.
  • Entrepreneurship requires:
    • Clear state direction and a sufficient market scale
    • The state to build legal, infrastructure, and planning conditions (but not act as the entrepreneur)
  • Bezrukov is cautiously optimistic that economic reformatting can occur in 5–10 years if effective levers and policy changes are implemented.

Investment advice and views on assets

  • Personal capital preservation (conservative approach):
    • Preference for real assets: real estate, land, gold, commodities
    • Domestic bonds of large companies/state and bank deposits
    • Skepticism toward speculative markets and crypto in a contested information/technology environment
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Skeptical view: as information‑system products they remain vulnerable to state control and technical suppression
    • May be useful as transactional tools but not a reliable refuge in systemic turmoil
  • Stock market investing:
    • Requires clear understanding of a company’s technology and future prospects; otherwise it is speculative

Closing assessment

  • Bezrukov expects a difficult near future but believes Russia can adapt and reindustrialize if it:
    • Pursues targeted policies
    • Builds broader economic ties with like‑minded partners
    • Mobilizes creativity and engineering capabilities
  • He expresses guarded optimism that current pressure can spur accelerated development.

Presenters / contributors

  • Andrey Olegovich Bezrukov — Professor, Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems at GIMO; political scientist; retired colonel of foreign intelligence (guest)
  • Podcast host / interviewer — name not provided in subtitles

Original video