Bitcoin Extreme Uncertainty

Core View

Benjamin Cowen describes Bitcoin as being at an unusually uncertain technical and macroeconomic decision point. The technical picture supports the bulls, while interest rates, inflation, liquidity, and recession risk support the bears.

His main point is to stay conditional rather than make a confident, one-way prediction: the next weekly closes could clarify whether Bitcoin’s recent breakout holds or fails.

Bitcoin: Bull and Bear Cases

Bull Case

• Bitcoin broke above $87,000, corrected, and is still holding above its 50-day moving average. Bulls can interpret the pullback as a normal retest of the prior breakout level.
• The golden cross, RSI, MACD, and Bitcoin’s position above the 50-week moving average are cited as supportive technical signals.
• In past post-halving-year bear markets, moving back above the 50-week average has often coincided with the bear market ending. Cowen also sees similarities to 2019, when Bitcoin recovered after a roughly nine-month downturn.
• Bitcoin is approaching the timing of prior midterm-year lows: it is around day 1,425, compared with prior lows near days 1,432 and 1,436. If no low occurs by the end of October, Cowen says that could strengthen the bullish argument.

Bear Case

• Several on-chain measures, including the MVRV Z-score, have not reset as they typically have at prior cycle lows. Bears argue that a deeper, price-based capitulation may still be needed.
• The 2019 comparison has limits: that recovery was followed by the pandemic and major monetary stimulus. Cowen argues that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is not currently expanding in the same way.
• Historically, Bitcoin has sometimes risen briefly after a rate hike and then fallen. In examples from 2015 and 2022, the post-hike move included declines; the 2015 example involved a drop of roughly 20%.
• If Bitcoin loses about $83,000 on a weekly closing basis, Cowen would give more weight to a failed-breakout scenario. He says a failed move could unwind quickly rather than take months.

Levels, Timing, and Scenarios to Watch

Bitcoin is described as being in the low-$80,000s. Cowen expects a decision soon rather than an extended stay at those levels.

• If support holds: He expects Bitcoin to test new local highs, potentially before the end of the month.
• If support fails: He expects a quick move toward the bottom of the range. In the failed-breakout examples he discusses, declines unfolded over roughly 10 days to two or three weeks.

Cowen compares the current setup with prior bear-market timing:

• Current downturn: about 38 weeks at the time of the video
• 2019 downturn: about 37 weeks
• Two more recent bear markets: about 52–54 weeks
• 2013–14 bear market: about 59 weeks

His three broad outcomes are a rebound from current levels, a new low followed by a rebound, or a breakdown that makes a higher low before recovering. He considers the third scenario the least favorable, as it could leave more overhead selling pressure and contribute to a longer downturn.

Rates, Liquidity, and Broader Markets

• Cowen discusses a possible Federal Reserve rate hike and says market pricing implied an 85% chance of an October hike. He notes that, in prior episodes, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have often held up for a time after the first hike before weakness appeared.
• Across the S&P examples he reviews, the average post-hike pattern is a decline, with an initial low around day 45 and a possible retest around day 70. He emphasizes that individual episodes vary and that this is an historical tendency, not a rule.
• He contrasts the current rate environment with 2019, when the Fed was cutting rates. He argues that today’s inflation concerns and possible rate increases are significant differences.
• He sees hot CPI and PPI readings, rising oil prices, and the possibility of further rate hikes as headwinds for crypto. If policy becomes more restrictive, he expects the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin dominance could strengthen.
• The 10-year Treasury yield has recently fallen despite hot inflation data. Cowen says that could reflect growing concern about economic growth rather than simply easing inflation pressure. He also discusses the possibility that yields rebound around the midterms before declining later.
• He notes weakness in the Russell 2000 and some weakness in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 is near prior all-time highs and the Dow Jones has shown strength.
• Recession signals are mixed: initial jobless claims remain relatively low, and Cowen’s recession-risk dashboard is not yet indicating high risk. However, the 10-year/3-month yield spread has been rising. He cautions that asset prices can fall before recession indicators deteriorate, and that market weakness can help initiate a downturn.
• Cowen considers possible support for stocks from the anticipated Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, but also raises the risk that an eventual AI-related market decline could weigh on Bitcoin. He does not claim that a dot-com-style bubble is already in place: the S&P-to-gold ratio is described as around 1–2, versus roughly 5–6 during the dot-com era.
• He says uncertainty measures have been elevated amid policy and tariff headlines, even while markets have remained near highs.

Relative Valuations and Other Assets

• Cowen thinks Bitcoin may have bottomed relative to silver, but is less certain it has bottomed relative to gold. His rationale is that silver could consolidate while gold makes new highs, as he says occurred in 1974.
• He highlights a Bitcoin-to-gold ratio near 10 as a possible level to watch. At that ratio, his illustrative comparisons are:
  • Gold at $4,000–$7,000 would imply Bitcoin at $40,000–$70,000.
• He also discusses ETH/BTC and Solana relative-value charts, arguing that ratios can eventually revisit range lows. He acknowledges, however, that timing is uncertain and that he could be wrong.

Framework and Portfolio Approach

• Respect weekly closes: Treat a weekly close below key Bitcoin levels—especially around $83,000—as a warning that the breakout may have failed.
• Use conditional scenarios: A sustained hold favors a move toward new local highs; a breakdown favors a quick retest of lower range levels.
• Consider both technical and macro evidence: Technical indicators are bullish, but incomplete on-chain resets, rate-hike risk, and growth concerns remain relevant.
• Avoid overconfidence: Cowen says historical averages can help frame probabilities but do not predict every market outcome.
• Accumulation approach: Cowen says his Bitcoin strategy is to dollar-cost average through the second half of a midterm year, as he says he did in 2018 and 2022 and planned to do in 2026. He says he had previously estimated a 65% chance that the low was still ahead and a 35% chance it was already in, while acknowledging that his base case might be wrong.

Assets and Indicators Mentioned

• Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), altcoins, total crypto-market capitalization, and Total2/Total3 market-cap measures.
• Other assets and markets: Silver, gold, oil, the U.S. dollar, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, and U.S. Treasury yields.
• Indicators and measures: RSI, MACD, golden cross, 50-day and 50-week moving averages, MVRV Z-score, supply in profit/loss, realized price, Federal Reserve balance sheet, global net liquidity, M2, and the 10-year/3-month yield spread.
• Bitcoin realized price: Cited at roughly $53,000 as a level Cowen had expected could be tested in a deeper correction.

Disclosures and Cautions

Cowen repeatedly cautions that markets are uncertain, historical patterns can fail, and he is not always right. He advises watching price closes and being willing to revise a view if the setup changes.

The video description includes the disclaimer: “The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.”

Presenter/source: Benjamin Cowen, Into the Cryptoverse.