Et si on appliquait le programme de Jean-Marc Jancovici ?

A Hypothetical Jancovici Presidency

The video imagines a hypothetical Jean-Marc Jancovici presidency beginning in 2027, after ecological disasters trigger a public mobilization. It is a scenario, not a report of actual events. The narrator considers what might happen if Jancovici implemented the Shift Project’s economic transformation plan.

Energy

The plan would extend the life of existing nuclear plants and build 14 new reactors by 2050, largely to replace retiring capacity. Most additional electricity would come from renewables, with substantial increases in wind and solar supported by batteries. The intended result is an electricity mix divided roughly equally between nuclear and renewables.

Transport

The programme would expand cycling and other forms of light mobility, increase rail travel, and reduce car use, while still leaving cars responsible for about half of all travel. Cars would become smaller and more efficient, and electrification would also help lower emissions.

Because aviation is harder to decarbonize, the plan would rely partly on research and partly on sharply higher taxes to reduce air traffic.

Economic Effects and Growth

The narrator argues that many proposed investments—especially in rail, energy, and other useful infrastructure—could create jobs and deliver strong short-term economic returns.

This creates a tension with Jancovici’s public claims that reducing emissions requires falling GDP. The narrator says the Shift Project plan contains few measures that would directly reduce GDP and could instead support growth. The discussion of limiting data centres, for example, acknowledges that restricting them in France could shift activity abroad rather than reduce it.

Financing

The narrator estimates that implementing much of the plan could require around €100 billion in additional annual spending, although the plan is framed in terms of physical resources rather than a detailed monetary budget.

The Shift Project’s preferred approaches include forms of money creation, but European treaties restrict direct central-bank financing. In this hypothetical scenario, Germany and other fiscally conservative countries resist treaty changes. Other possible funding sources include:

• Redirecting private savings toward eligible investments
• Compulsory borrowing
• Environmentally differentiated VAT
• Freezing or restraining spending unrelated to climate action

Limits to the Climate Outcome

Even if the plan were implemented successfully, meeting territorial emissions targets would not necessarily mean that France had achieved genuine carbon neutrality. A large share of France’s consumption-related emissions occurs abroad through imports, and the plan is said to give limited attention to reducing that footprint or rebuilding low-carbon industrial production in France.

The video also questions whether measures such as expanding cycle paths would be sufficient to achieve the plan’s highly ambitious behavioural targets.

Global Responsibility

The narrator’s central criticism is that a national transition is not enough to address a global problem. France accounts for only a small share of global emissions, while future emissions and development needs will be heavily shaped by countries such as India and Pakistan.

The video argues that France should do more than meet its own territorial targets: it should help decarbonize production, develop and export green technologies, and support infrastructure and investment abroad. Otherwise, the plan’s hope that other countries will follow France’s example may be inadequate.

Presenter and Subject

• Crésus is the video’s narrator; no individual presenter is identified in the subtitles.
• Jean-Marc Jancovici is the subject of the hypothetical scenario, not a presenter.