The PSA Backlog Is Changing The Lorcana Market

Finance / Market-Focused Summary (PSA Backlog → “Market Liquidity” + Pricing Risk)

The presenter argues that PSA’s growing backlog (as more cards get graded, including via fast/express services) will increase graded populations (“pop counts”). In turn, this should pressure PSA 10 prices and raw-near-mint prices downward for newer sets—especially for top chase cards that are currently being bid up aggressively.

Key market dynamic claimed

• Current behavior: New cards (PSA 10s) are “given no time on the market,” with prices running ahead of expected future supply.
• Backlog effect: More submissions → more slabs entering the market over time → higher pop counts → lower scarcity premium → price declines.
• Price spillover mechanism: As PSA 10 prices fall, the presenter expects raw/near-mint prices to drift down too, because the price gap between grades narrows and buyers arbitrage.

Instruments / Assets Mentioned

• No traditional financial tickers/ETFs/bonds/commodities mentioned.
• Instrument type: Graded trading cards (PSA slabs) in the Disney Lorcana ecosystem.

Sets / Series Referenced

• Fabled
• Wild Zone
• Attack of the Divine
• First Chapter
• Aenor (?) / “AAN means family” (unclear exact set naming)
• Winter Spell
• “Buzz” set (name not fully specified, tied to newer releases)
• Iconics (Lilo & Stitch, Belle & Beast mentioned)

Cards / Population and Price Claims (PSA 10 unless noted)

Winnie the Pooh & Piglet (newer card)

• PSA 10 pop: 55
• Gem rate implied: ~90% (55/60 total graded)
• Last sale: ~$2,600
• Expectation: total PSA 10 pop could rise to ~450 (or closer to 500, as quoted)
• Presenter’s caution: believes the current price won’t sustain

Winnie the Pooh (from Fabled)

• PSA 10 pop: 254
• Total graded: 399
• PSA 10 gem rate: a little over 60% (254/399 implied)
• Expected ceiling: could rise to ~300 (not much higher)

Mickey Mouse (from Fabled)

• PSA 10 pop: 633
• Note: “pretty much everybody” has graded; raw copies are rarely seen.

Buzz (newer counterpart mentioned)

• PSA 10 pop: 557
• Timing: came out about 2–3 months ago vs Mickey about ~1 year
• Claim: Buzz pop likely higher than Mickey once fully processed.

Lilo & Stitch (Iconic)

• PSA 10 pop: 83 (currently graded)
• Last sale: ~$1,900s
• Expectation: could rise to ~800 (discussion ranged up to ~830 “possible”; “close to 10x” discussed)
• Expected PSA 10 price path: could drop to ~$1,000 after backlog supply hits
• Mechanism emphasized: auctions + express submissions could reset near-mint/raw prices lower as PSA 10 supply increases.

Mickey Mouse Trumpeter (different Mickey card)

• PSA 10 pop: “right under 300” (exact number unclear)
• Expectation: only 5–10 more copies by end of year

Genie Double Sword

• PSA 10 pop: around 1,000
• Claim: first chapter pop has stayed “steady”; fewer new submissions now.
• Personal context disclosed: presenter paid ~$400 over a year ago (grading fee context also mentioned).

Enchanted / “Winter Spell” card (Honey Wizard mentioned)

• PSA 10 copies: “about 100” for the described card
• Comparison: will “double” vs Honey Wizard
• Current price estimate: about $700 in a PSA 10
• Expectation: 100–150 more copies arriving could pressure prices (or at least prevent further appreciation)

Key Numbers & Price / Risk Points

• PSA backlog: as of Aug 25, backlog is 10.9 million cards.
• Winnie the Pooh & Piglet:
  • PSA 10 pop: 55
  • Fabled Winnie Pooh PSA 10: 254 (total graded 399)
  • Expected PSA 10 pop for new card: ~450–500
  • Last sale: ~$2,600
  • Presenter belief: won’t sustain
• Lilo & Stitch:
  • PSA 10 pop: 83
  • Last sale: ~$1,900s
  • Expected future PSA 10 pop: ~800 (up to ~830 “possible” in discussion)
  • Expected PSA 10 price decline target: ~$1,000
• Older vs newer risk framing:
  • Older cards (first chapter / older baseline) may see only ~10–20% pop raise at most (presenter estimates closer to ~10%)—viewed as manageable.
  • Newer chases (e.g., Attack of the Vine / Wilds Unknown, etc.) are where pop increases could be large enough to “mess up” pricing trajectory.

Methodology / Framework Used (Step-by-Step Logic)

1. Compare current PSA 10 pop counts between:
   • a newer chase card vs its older counterpart
   • and use stated/estimated gem-rate behavior to forecast future PSA 10 supply.
2. Infer future supply increase from:
   • higher pool rates implied for newer sets
   • expectation that PSA backlog will keep processing submissions
   • belief that gem rate/quality may remain higher initially, even if total PSA 10 still grows substantially.
3. Translate higher pop into market outcomes:
   • more graded supply → reduced scarcity premium → PSA 10 price falls
   • PSA 10 price falls → raw/near-mint prices also fall due to narrowing price differences.
4. Time horizon considered:
   • new cards are still early; price runs today may be invalidated once backlog-cleared submissions hit auctions.

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions

• Caution against buying new PSA 10 slabs at current hype prices (framed as “wasting money”).
• Prefer “safer” exposure by targeting older sets with more stable grading / low incremental submissions
  • example given: First Chapter cards like Genie Double Sword.
• Be careful with newer sets/chases such as:
  • Attack of the Vine / Wilds Unknown
  • Lilo & Stitch (warned could drop materially)
  • “Winter Spell” / certain enchanted-style card described as potentially risky around ~$700 PSA 10

Personal disclosure affecting stance

• Presenter says they already bought a Lilo & Stitch for about $1,600, calls it a “mistake,” but intends long-term holding (not selling in the near term).

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• Ends with: “This is not financial advice.”
• Emphasizes that the remarks are opinions and viewers should do their own thinking.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Jet (main presenter)
• “Team Rocket Joey” / Joey McScrooge (source of the motivating Instagram post; also praised as a creator)