Промомед - обзор отчетности компании за 1п 2026 год

Overview / thesis

The presenter reviews ProMomed’s financial results for the first half of 2026 and argues that the company is benefiting from the booming demand for anti-obesity / anti-diabetes drugs. These drugs are described as a “pharmaceutical revolution” that reduces appetite (including formulations that are now taken as tablets).

The core investment appeal, in the presenter’s view, is very strong revenue and profit growth. The main uncertainty is whether that growth can continue without a sharp slowdown.

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Company & market context

• ProMomed is positioned as a Russian pharma company increasingly known for obesity/excess-weight drugs.
• The presenter emphasizes that demand is rising rapidly due to:
  • the abundance of calorie/carbohydrate food and resulting health issues (obesity),
  • the effectiveness of appetite-suppressing medication,
  • increasing adoption through word-of-mouth, supported by revenue dynamics.
• He notes that Russian companies received the right to produce and sell the active ingredient under their own brands. This creates room for multiple players, but also hints that competition could increase later.

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Financial performance (1H 2026)

Key reported highlights

• Revenue increased by ~75% year-on-year (referred to as rising from roughly 12.9–13 to 22.7 for the half-year period).
• Gross profit and operating profit roughly doubled.
• Net profit is described as “almost doubling” and still strong, despite some declines mentioned in passing.
• The presenter stresses that growth remains around ~70%+ even from a larger base.

Concentration

• Approximately 71% of sales are linked to drugs for diabetes and obesity, indicating heavy dependence on a dominant product/segment.

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Cash flow concern

• Despite strong revenue and profit, cash flow from operating activities is negative.
• The presenter interprets this as typical for a rapid growth phase, driven by active investment and growth-related working capital needs—e.g., higher inventories to support scaling production and distribution.

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Share price / market reaction

• The presenter claims the stock price has stalled and does not reflect the strong financial growth.
• He attributes this to market factors such as liquidity (noting the security is not very liquid for larger funds).
• He contrasts private investor behavior with a “wait until it moves” pattern.

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Main risks and investment dilemma

Primary risks

1. Growth slowdown or market saturation Since the company is highly dependent on one major drug, saturation could cause growth to drop sharply.

2. Competition catching up Competitors may trigger price competition and margin compression, potentially turning high growth into a “bang—everything stops” scenario.

3. Gradual vs. abrupt deceleration The presenter notes that growth slowing (e.g., 70% → 50% → 30%) can be normal, but the worst case is a sudden stop.

Valuation / conclusion

• The presenter argues the valuation still looks attractive, citing a low earnings-to-price ratio (mentioned as around “ENAP 10”).
• He suggests that even with less optimistic growth assumptions (e.g., not 7–8 but 11–12), the market-implied outcome could still support a higher valuation scenario.
• Final takeaway: a simple dilemma—invest if you believe growth slows gradually rather than abruptly. Otherwise, he recommends focusing on alternatives such as dividend stocks.

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Presenters / contributors

• Only the presenter/host (name not provided), identified as “M.”