Poverty and Inflation Crush Americans as Trump Sends Billions to War and Israel

Summary

Tucker Carlson interviews defense-spending analyst Stephen Semler about the unpopularity and cost of the US war with Iran, the size of the military budget, US support for Israel, and the domestic economic consequences of those priorities.

• Public opposition to the Iran war: Semler says polling by The Economist and YouGov showed that the war began with net public opposition—unlike major US wars after World War II—and became more unpopular over time. He cites a net-support figure of minus 35 in the latest survey discussed. Even among supporters, he says, many want the war to end quickly.

• Congress and war funding: Semler argues that Congress has not effectively checked the president’s authority to wage war. He criticizes Democrats for opposing the war rhetorically while supporting budgets that fund military operations, and says lawmakers in both parties have little incentive to challenge the spending.

• The scale and purpose of military spending: Semler puts the fiscal-year 2026 military budget at about $1.1 trillion, including roughly $150 billion from a recent budget law, and says a later proposal would raise it to $1.5 trillion. He argues that spending has grown for years while the US has failed to meet stated objectives in Iran and other conflicts. Adjusted for inflation, he says current annual spending exceeds average annual military spending during 1942–45, although it represents a smaller share of today’s economy.

• Contractors, lobbying, and oversight: Semler says more than half of annual military spending goes to private contractors, whose executives and shareholders benefit from government contracts. He describes a cycle in which contractors also fund lobbying, political campaigns, and think tanks that help legitimize higher spending. Drawing on his own research, he says members of Congress who receive more defense-industry donations are more likely to support larger military budgets. He also criticizes the Pentagon for failing to pass a clean audit and says Congress has not used its oversight powers effectively.

• The war’s financial costs: Semler estimates direct US costs of the Iran war at about $72 billion in its first 60 days and roughly $100 billion by around 120 days. These estimates include operations, replacement munitions, damage to bases, and aid to Israel. He challenges a Congressional Budget Office estimate of $38 billion, arguing that it relied on outdated equipment-loss figures and treated some war spending as part of the Pentagon’s existing baseline. He says the estimates omit wider costs, including damage to facilities and long-term veterans’ care. The discussion also cites an estimate that the war had added around $2,000 to the average family’s costs, largely through fuel prices and inflation.

• US aid and military support for Israel: Semler estimates that US assistance to Israel since its founding totals about $352 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars through 2025, excluding subsequent appropriations. He describes annual military financing as a grant that Israel largely uses to buy US weapons, and says the US has also expended hundreds of missile interceptors defending Israel. He argues that American involvement in the Iran war was closely tied to Israel’s influence, citing public statements by US officials. Carlson and Semler question whether this support serves US interests.

• Economic priorities and voters: The speakers argue that the cost of living and economic security are more immediate concerns for many Americans than conventional national-security claims. Semler says inflation and prices have been the leading public concern in polling since 2022 and predicts that voters may punish whichever party is in power. He also disputes the claim that higher military spending reliably creates jobs, citing a decline in defense-industry employment from about 3.1 million in 1985 to 1.1 million in 2021, despite a substantial real increase in the military budget.

• Israel, Gaza, and public opinion: Semler says opposition to US aid to Israel has grown, including among people who did not vote in 2024. He attributes this partly to public reaction to Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and argues that the issue intersects with the financial burden of war and falling living standards. Carlson discusses his own shift in attention to the issue, including his concerns about attacks on Christian communities and churches. The conversation ends as Semler begins discussing how to assess reported death tolls in Gaza.

Presenters and Contributors

• Tucker Carlson — Presenter and interviewer
• Stephen Semler — Guest analyst and defense-spending researcher associated with the Polygraph newsletter