Ciclo de conferencias: Grandes protagonistas de las Ciencias Políticas y Sociales

Central Argument

Dr. Leonel Fernández argues that global economic conditions strongly influence electoral outcomes in Latin America, often by shaping voters’ judgments of the government in power. Economic performance is not the only factor: corruption, public safety, distrust in institutions, weak party systems, polarization, and unmet social needs also matter. But when living costs rise, jobs disappear, or public services deteriorate, voters often punish incumbents—regardless of whether the opposition is left- or right-wing.

Theories of Voting Behavior

Fernández reviews several approaches to explaining how people vote:

• Columbia School: Voting is shaped largely by social structure, group identity, and family or party traditions. Research associated with this school found that campaigns often reinforce existing preferences rather than change them.
• Michigan School: Voting is explained through voters’ psychological and personal attachments, including party identification and social relationships.
• Economic theory of democracy: Anthony Downs views voters as rational actors who choose according to their interests; economic conditions can therefore become central to electoral decisions.
• Latin American party-brand research: Noam Lupu emphasizes how weakened party identities, clientelism, and populism can shape voting.

Fernández stresses that no single theory or factor explains every election.

Economic and Political Turning Points

Democratization

Fernández presents the Dominican Republic’s 1978 transition as an early marker of Latin America’s democratic “third wave.” He places it alongside transitions in Southern Europe, including Portugal, Greece, and Spain.

In Latin America, the shift from dictatorship to electoral democracy took place amid economic crisis and human-rights abuses. He contrasts this with the comparatively prosperous transitions he describes in parts of East Asia.

The 1980s Debt Crisis and the Washington Consensus

High interest rates, debt, deficits, inflation, and currency devaluation contributed to the region’s “lost decade.” Fernández views some reforms—such as reducing unsustainable deficits and improving tax systems—as necessary, but criticizes austerity measures that cut health care, education, and social assistance.

He also argues that trade liberalization can be damaging when countries face unequal competition. As an example, he cites Dominican rice production competing with subsidized U.S. imports.

The 2003–2013 “Golden Decade”

Latin American economies grew rapidly, helped by China’s demand for commodities and high commodity prices. Fernández links this favorable environment to the electoral strength of progressive governments across the region.

The Slowdown After 2013

As growth and government revenues fell, social programs became harder to sustain and protests increased. Fernández interprets the subsequent electoral shift toward conservative candidates largely as a punishment of incumbents, rather than proof of a uniform ideological turn.

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Fernández argues that the crisis and ensuing recession weakened trust in institutions and contributed to political upheaval. He contrasts expansionary responses in the United States with austerity in Europe, which he says intensified social discontent and helped create space for protest movements and new political parties.

COVID-19 and Incumbent Turnover

The pandemic caused another major economic shock. Fernández connects it to further turnover in Latin American governments, including changes in political direction in several countries.

As a broad summary of the recent period, he says that 28 of 38 presidential elections in Latin America between 2018 and 2026 resulted in the governing party losing to the opposition. He uses this figure to reinforce his claim that volatility is often driven by dissatisfaction with government performance, rather than by a consistent regional swing to the left or right.

New Pressures on Elections

Fernández says electoral politics is increasingly shaped by a changing communications environment:

• Social media, digital platforms, algorithms, bots, and targeted political messaging can shape public opinion and voter behavior.
• The Cambridge Analytica case illustrates how personal data and microtargeting can be used to send tailored messages to undecided voters.
• Artificial intelligence and deepfakes make it easier to circulate fabricated images, voices, or statements.
• Electronic voting requires reliable verification. Fernández suggests checking electronic records against physical ballots.
• Political consultants and international campaign firms increasingly influence campaign strategy, sometimes displacing party leadership.
• Political-science education should include practical and ethical training in campaign communication and digital platforms.

Audience Questions and Responses

• Haiti: Fernández describes Haiti as a collapsed state facing chronic instability and gang violence. He says multilateral efforts have been ineffective and that the Dominican Republic has repeatedly called for international attention, but action has been limited.
• Baseball and social mobility: Major League Baseball can offer young Dominicans valuable, high-income opportunities. However, some sign while young, leave school, and never reach the major leagues, leaving them without the education or preparation to pursue other careers.
• Digital manipulation and democratic resilience: Fernández reiterates that digital manipulation is important but interacts with deeper economic and institutional forces. He emphasizes transparency, verification, and ethical campaign practices.

Speakers and Sources Featured

Speakers

• Unnamed event host/announcer: Introduces the event.
• Dr. Alejandro Chanona Burguete: Director of the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences; gives the welcome address and presents the commemorative medal.
• Dr. Leonel Fernández Reyna: Keynote speaker and former president of the Dominican Republic.
• Ambassador Pablo Mariñez Álvarez: Faculty professor who moderates the question-and-answer session.
• Audience questioners: Students and attendees, including people identified in the subtitles as Ariana Fed, Alexander Fernández, Mariana Escobedo, Víctor González, Lian Tomás Osí, Ana Artiniega, Monserrat Silva, Sofía Alcántara, Santiago (surname unclear), and Joseline Martínez Padilla. Some names may be inaccurate because the subtitles are auto-generated.
• Ambassador Juan Bolívar Díaz Santana: Present and acknowledged during the event; the subtitles do not include a substantive speech from him.

Key Intellectual Sources and Works Cited

• Samuel Huntington, on waves of democratization.
• Paul Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet, The People’s Choice.
• The University of Michigan research tradition, including The American Voter.
• Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy.
• Noam Lupu, Party Brands in Crisis.
• James Carville, associated with the campaign phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.”