IISS Manama Dialogue 2026 | The Eastern Mediterranean: Continental Crossroads and Bridge to the Gulf

Summary

The session examined how security and economic ties connect the Eastern Mediterranean, the Levant, the Gulf and Europe. Speakers argued that maritime routes, trade, energy and infrastructure make these regions interdependent, while emphasizing that stronger cooperation depends on political stability and effective state institutions.

Lebanon’s position

Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi condemned attacks on Gulf states and warned that armed groups operating outside state authority threaten both national sovereignty and regional security. He described the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Eastern Mediterranean as interconnected arteries for trade and energy.

Raggi said Lebanon is seeking to restore state authority, including by banning Hezbollah’s military and security activities and requiring it to disarm. He described these steps as a Lebanese choice, not an external demand. He added that restoring sovereignty also requires an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, an end to Israeli attacks and implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

He called for Gulf support for Lebanon’s army and security institutions, renewed investment and a stronger political partnership.

Turkey’s regional approach

Deputy Foreign Minister Musa Kulaklıkaya described the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential zone of shared prosperity. He advocated negotiations over maritime issues and the equitable sharing of natural-resource revenues. He reiterated Turkey’s proposal for an inclusive Eastern Mediterranean conference, including Turkish Cypriots, and welcomed the Libyan parliament’s approval of the 2019 Turkey–Libya memorandum.

Kulaklıkaya argued for regionally led diplomacy and cited several cooperation initiatives:

• A Turkey–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan defense agreement
• The R4 diplomatic forum involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan
• Regional coordination on Gaza
• A defense-industry memorandum involving Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia

He called for de-escalation around Iran and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He also supported a Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian access, reconstruction and a political path to Palestinian statehood, while criticizing Israeli actions in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

Economic connectivity and development

UNDP Assistant Secretary-General Abdullah al-Dardari argued that the region’s infrastructure links are far weaker than its potential. He cited the Arab region’s roughly 3.8% share of global economic output, compared with about 7% of the world’s population.

Better connections between the Gulf, the Levant and Europe could support growth, jobs and stability, he said, but should complement rather than simply replace the Strait of Hormuz. He stressed the need for regulatory alignment, capable public institutions and private-sector investment supported by effective risk-sharing and financial structures.

Infrastructure, he argued, should create regional value chains and local production, rather than merely move raw materials and finished goods through the Levant. In response to questions about sequencing, he said governance reforms and connectivity planning should proceed together.

Al-Dardari estimated regional rebuilding and sustainable-development needs at $1.4 trillion. He argued that the main constraint is not a lack of money—citing $4 trillion in Arab commercial-bank deposits—but the ability to channel funds into well-managed projects.

Questions and responses

Audience questions highlighted the difficulty of resolving the Lebanon–Israel standoff. Hezbollah has linked disarmament to Israeli withdrawal, while Israel has made withdrawal conditional on disarmament. Raggi said the US-sponsored framework was a starting point for a lengthy process, noted that direct negotiations with Israel had begun, and said the government had formally called on Hezbollah to disarm.

Other questions raised the future of security arrangements if UNIFIL winds down, the role of Gulf partners in supporting Lebanon, the viability and financing of proposed infrastructure corridors, and concerns that Turkey’s regional influence may be viewed as hegemonic.

Kulaklıkaya described Turkey’s diplomatic forums as flexible platforms intended to promote regional ownership, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and opposition to the use of proxies. Several specific questions—including those on gas deals, a drone agreement, and the Western Mediterranean and Sahel—were not directly answered during the session.

Presenters and contributors

• Moderator: Lord Sedwill
• Panel presenters: Youssef Raggi, Musa Kulaklıkaya, Abdullah al-Dardari
• Audience contributors: Sam Lavery-Cobbold, Maria Luisa Fontanpieri, Alaa Khaddour, Zubin Minwalla, Islam El Halawani, Akram Zoui, Rakan Al Ghannam