Błąd, który niszczy inwestorów. Przypadek CD Projektu był brutalną lekcją II Paweł Malik #58

Finance-focused summary (markets / investing / portfolio / risk)

Core mistakes and behavioral traps

• Chasing optimism from short-term results: Investors may see a company’s profits rising (e.g., 10–20%) and assume it will continue “forever,” when the improvement may be a one-off event rather than a durable operating trend.

• Failing to manage winners/losers (portfolio management mistake):

  • The speaker describes closing positions when they were going up (“because a correction will come”).
  • Then doing nothing during the downturn, leading to major drawdowns (e.g., around “-70% or something”).

• “Falling in love” with a company: Emotional attachment can bias judgment positively and increase the risk of ignoring deteriorating fundamentals.

• Overreliance on headlines / trendy sectors: Popularity (“everyone talks about it”) can mean the market has already priced in the expected growth.

How to evaluate companies (fundamental framework)

The discussion emphasizes fundamental analysis and ongoing portfolio monitoring, largely rejecting technical analysis.

Step-by-step screening and evaluation approach

• 1) Screen for “do not buy” red flags (avoid by default):
  • New/trendy business models with no proven operating history (e.g., business pivots like “changed business to produce drones”).
  • Management credibility issues: past promises that did not materialize.
  • Financial statement quality checks, especially:
    • Artificial revenue inflation using accounting items (e.g., “change in inventory” booked as income despite weak real operating cash flow).
    • Comparing P&L (revenue/profit) vs operating cash flow—is the firm actually generating cash?
  • Debt and financing risk:
    • Excessive leverage where debt grows faster than the business can support.
    • Refinancing/raising new financing difficulties and higher financing costs (a major warning sign).
• 2) Verify whether growth is real and sustainable:
  • Ask: Why are revenues increasing? Will that hold in the coming months/quarters?
  • Determine whether growth comes from core operations vs temporary effects.
• 3) Use a forecasting/verification loop (quarterly cadence):
  • Forecast the next quarter and full year using historical performance as the base.
  • Keep the forecast set small (speaker suggests ~4–5 key items), then track whether reality matches expectations.
  • Use periodic reports as checkpoint updates (reports four times a year).
• 4) Apply valuation discipline / exit rules:
  • Compare business performance vs what valuation implies.
  • Use a P/E-style intuition example: if a company earns 100m and trades at 1b (implied 10×), then 120m profits might justify a higher valuation—but only if expectations are not already fully priced in.
  • Close positions when:
    • The investment thesis breaks (e.g., bad report or worsening fundamentals), regardless of valuation.
    • Valuation outruns achievable fundamentals (example includes a multiple moving from P/E 10 to 20 when expectations become too high).

One-off events and “adjusted” earnings

• The speaker repeatedly warns that headline profits can look strong due to non-recurring settlements or accounting effects.
• Investors should mentally adjust and pay attention to how companies present “adjusted” results.

Concrete example (Poland)

• Vasco (IT company):
  • Profits were attributed to a settlement involving PKP PLK.
  • Treated as a one-off rather than repeatable recurring profit.

Company examples of hype vs fundamentals

• CCC (retail):
  • Described as a “star” of 2024.
  • Later hit in a sell-off when it emerged that revenue mix depended more on wholesale than on predictable “core” retail dynamics—suggesting forecasts were too optimistic.
• CD Projekt (gaming bubble reference):
  • Expectations became extremely high relative to valuation.
  • The speaker references the pattern of a run-up at the peak followed by a collapse (an anecdote mentions a small gaming company down about “-90%”).
• Arms industry:
  • Discussed as potentially overheated/fully priced in parts.
  • However, growth can still continue, so blanket “avoid” calls can be wrong if valuations keep rising.

Overheating / valuation risk (bubbles)

• Bubbles form when there are real reasons for growth and excessive expectations about future results (e.g., gaming, breakthrough tech, defense spending narratives).
• Even when a sector has genuine tailwinds, investors still must ask whether valuation fits fundamentals, not only whether the trend is real.

Portfolio construction and holding period logic

• Portfolio size: about 25 (±) positions.
• Holding period: roughly ~1 year on average (often assessed quarterly; can range from ~1 quarter to ~3 years depending on thesis).
• Monitoring: if held, the speaker stresses active monitoring; “buy and forget” for single stocks is discouraged.
• Index preference for long horizons: For a 10-year horizon, the speaker suggests leaning toward index funds rather than single stocks, because stock-specific business risk must be continuously supervised.

Polish market context and instruments mentioned

Warsaw Stock Exchange (development / framing)

• The speaker contrasts earlier concerns with current “record indices,” positioning Warsaw as a more recognized/improved market.
• Mentions:
  • WIG 20 and WIG (large-company exposure).
  • The market is still viewed like an emerging market, but shifting toward “developing +” and lower risk.
  • April 16, 1991 as the 35th anniversary of the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

State influence / governance risk

• Argues that politicians / State Treasury influence can distort economic outcomes in state-influenced listed firms, affecting margins and harming minority shareholders.
• Orlen cited as an example of politically determined margins, including price manipulation dynamics (periods of artificially inflated prices vs lowered prices; “mandated price reductions”).

Retirement / tax-advantaged vehicles

• PPK (Polish employee capital plans): strongly endorsed.
  • Claimed ability to withdraw money at any time (as described).
  • Emphasis on large employer and state subsidies, framed as making it one of the most profitable retirement allocations.
• Mentions OFE for comparison.
• Mentions other tax/retirement instruments: IKE and XZA.
• Notes ZUS alone may be insufficient for comfortable retirement.

Indices for smaller companies (growth focus)

• Core reference: sWIG80 (small caps).
• Strategy: rotate attention across small/mid caps as they climb into higher indices, targeting higher “dynamics” (tens of percent growth potential rather than just 5–10%).

Examples of Polish large/steady growers (candidates)

• LPP, Kruk, Kęty (described as continuously developing companies).

Moving outside Poland: US investing approach

• The speaker began investing abroad (US) in a style similar to Polish small-cap / fundamental screening, not “mega-cap AI” trends.
• Encore Capital (US):
  • Framed as a turnaround.
  • A debt collection firm with losses in 2024, but improving recoveries and large upside (discussed as roughly “plus 100%”).
• Emphasis on comfort with local/regulatory understanding:
  • If they don’t understand a market, they exit rather than “wait at all costs.”

Explicit caution/disclaimer

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles provided.

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Tickers / entities / instruments mentioned

Stocks / companies

• CD Projekt, Vasco, PKP PLK (settlement counterparty), CCC, Orlen
• LPP, Kruk, Kęty, Allegro, InPost, MLP
• Encore Capital

Indices / market benchmarks

• WIG, WIG20, sWIG80, MWIG40 / mWIG40 (mentioned as ranges)

Retirement / tax instruments

• PPK, OFE, ZUS, IKE, XZA

Other references

• Artificial intelligence companies (sector reference)
• Arms industry (sector reference)
• Railway modernizations tied to “KPO money” (theme, not a specific ticker)

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Presenters / sources

• Paweł Malik — licensed investment advisor (investor/analyst)
• Patrycjusz Wyżga — host (“Good morning…”)
• Segment/program name referenced: Investment horizons (Horizons studio)