テスタさんが「需給の読み方」大公開！実際に取引したチャートで解説してくれました

Summary

The discussion centers on reading supply and demand in real time, especially around earnings announcements, and managing losses. Testa describes a short-term approach based on price action, order flow, and trader behavior rather than interpreting reported financial figures. Tabata contrasts this with his own approach, which uses fundamentals to select stocks and charts to time entries and exits.

Intraday supply-and-demand framework

Testa’s example involves Japanese stock 7003, described in the subtitles as a shipping-related stock. Around an earnings release at approximately 2:30 p.m., he says he focused on how the stock reacted rather than analyzing the report itself:

• Watch the initial reaction: A quick rise followed by an immediate drop may indicate that sellers judged the results negatively. If the stock holds briefly before falling, buyers may initially have viewed the results favorably, but demand may have been insufficient or expectations may already have been priced in.
• Read the pace and scale of the move: The same price change can mean different things depending on whether it happens within seconds or over roughly a minute.
• Track prior breakeven levels: A break below a level where many holders were near breakeven can prompt selling from trapped holders, alongside new short selling.
• Observe the rebound: Selling near breakeven can cap a recovery. If the price passes that level easily, it may indicate that selling pressure has been absorbed.
• Watch the first spike high: A move above it can pressure short sellers to cover, potentially accelerating the rise.
• Interpret order-book behavior cautiously: Repeated large orders or persistent supply may suggest a large seller, but the emphasis is on what the price actually does—not on assuming a particular participant’s motives.

In this example, Testa says the stock fell about 10% from high to low, then rebounded. He describes making roughly ¥10 million in about 30 minutes. These are his account of a particular trade, not a general performance claim.

Investing styles and fundamentals

• Testa says he has made most of his money through day trading and argues that trading can be approached as a game of reading market participants’ reactions.
• He says he may deliberately avoid looking at earnings figures immediately after release, because valuation judgments can bias a trader’s read of the price reaction.
• Tabata says he uses fundamentals to decide which stocks to consider, then charts to help determine when to enter, exit, or cut a position.
• Both speakers stress that there is no single style that suits everyone. The appropriate balance between technical and fundamental analysis depends on the investor and time horizon.
• They discuss changing an analysis mix from approximately 3:7 to 7:3, but the subtitles do not make clear which side of the ratio is listed first.
• Longer holding periods make company fundamentals more relevant. The speakers also note that a company moving from persistent losses to profitability can attract a strong share-price reaction.

Risk management and portfolio discipline

The speakers’ main portfolio and risk-management points are:

• Set a loss limit or exit rule in advance; one speaker mentions 10% or 20% as possible loss thresholds, depending on the situation.
• Cut a position when the reason for holding it no longer supports buying it today. Ask: “If I did not own this stock, would I buy it now?”
• Avoid rationalizing a losing position by assuming that a problem will be resolved and the stock must then recover. A reason for a decline disappearing does not guarantee a rebound.
• Consider the downside case as well as the upside case, including whether a company may need to raise capital or face further deterioration.
• The speakers favor cutting losing positions and letting successful positions run, while acknowledging that this runs against common emotional instincts.
• Holding long-term positions without a stop can leave an investor exposed to continuing losses. Day trading is not automatically safe either: controlling losses is essential.
• Tabata describes a portfolio with 10 holdings, all showing unrealized losses, as an example of how investors can become stuck in losing positions.
• Testa says losses are a routine part of trading: he presents successful trades publicly but says many other trades may end in small losses.

Assets, companies, and instruments mentioned

• Japanese equities: stock 7003 (company identification is unclear in the subtitles); Nintendo; Mercari; Fuji TV; JFE; Nippon Steel; Tokyo Metro; and MetaPla (name or transcription uncertain).
• Market participant: Murakami Fund, discussed in relation to selling Fuji TV shares.
• Other instruments or approaches: index investing, FX, cryptocurrency, and mid-term futures.
• Metrics discussed: EPS, P/E (rendered as “PR” in the subtitles), P/B (PBR), ROE, and cash flow. The speakers note that detailed knowledge of these metrics is not necessary for every trading approach.

Key figures and examples

• Earnings announcement in the 7003 example: approximately 2:30 p.m.
• Reported intraday move: about 10% from high to low; roughly ¥10 million profit over around 30 minutes, according to Testa.
• Nintendo example: Testa says he bought approximately ¥100 million worth of shares. He distinguishes this from a day trade, emphasizing that a long-term position of that size requires accepting the possibility of a correspondingly large loss.
• Illustrative growth example: 100% annual EPS growth is discussed alongside a hypothetical P/E of 100. The exact arithmetic in the subtitles is garbled, so it should not be treated as a precise valuation calculation.
• An example of a stock falling from ¥1,000 to ¥300 is used to discuss the cost of delaying a loss-taking decision.
• Testa refers to building wealth from roughly ¥1–2 million to ¥500 million or ¥1 billion as an illustration of the appeal of active stock trading; this is not presented as a typical outcome.

Disclosures and caveats

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The trading profits and figures are presented as personal examples; they do not establish that the methods will work for other investors. The subtitles appear to be auto-generated and contain garbled company names and some unclear figures.

Presenters/sources: Shintaro Tabata and investor Testa; video source: 田端大学 投資学部.