📈 [LIVE] PRE-MARKET LIVE STREAM | The EXACT Rejection We Expected | FOMC DAY!

Finance-focused Summary (Levels + Rejection Around FOMC)

Market Theme

The presenter trades a “levels + rejection/failure” approach into major catalysts—especially FOMC (2:00 / 2:30). He repeatedly emphasizes:

• Chop zones / “no-trade zones”
• Taking directional trades only with clear break + retest confirmation (and rejection legibility)

---

Key Macro Events & Timeline

• FOMC statement: 2:00
• FOMC press conference: 2:30
• Trump speaking at G7: “at open” (additional headline risk)
• Retail sales (pre-market impact): 0.9 vs 0.5 (higher than expected), described as market-supportive

Core idea: major news windows create chop/no-trade conditions, so entries require higher-quality confirmation.

---

Instruments / Tick ers Mentioned

Index Futures & ETFs (level references)

• Nasdaq 100 futures (via QQQ levels)
• S&P 500 futures (via ES levels)
• SPY
• QQQ
• IWM
• SMH
• DRAM / memory charts (sector risk filter)

Equities / Companies

• HOOD
• AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, MU
• AVGO, TSM, MRVL, ARM
• SNDK, INTC, AMZN, META
• Google (Alphabet; ticker not stated)
• DELL
• CRWV, NBIS

Other Reference

• Forex Factory economic calendar (used for event timing; no specific yields/FX levels provided)

---

Step-by-Step Trading Methodology

1. Mark supply and demand zones Use prior highs/lows plus overnight/pre-market levels.

2. Use break + failure / break + retest rejection

   • Avoid shorting the first breakdown wick/sweep.
   • Wait for clear legibility of rejection.
3. Create chop / no-trade zones around major events
   • Especially around FOMC at 2:00.
4. Only trade directional moves outside the chop zone
   • Continuation requires a break beyond the chop zone.
   • Inside the zone: expect mean reversion / ping-pong, not sustained trends.
5. For single stocks: look for reclaim levels
   • Daily 20 SMA, prior highs, or all-time highs
   • Favor setups that show higher-low development

---

Key Numbers, Levels & Recommendations (By Market)

1) Nasdaq / QQQ (Futures + ETF Levels)

Major Levels

• Demand/support (QQQ): 730
• Supply / chop cap: 736–738
• Gap fill reference: failure tied to not holding 730
• Upside targets if reclaim/strength: 742, then 745
• No-trade/chop zone: roughly 737–738 down to 730

Trading Logic / Stance

• If QQQ stays above 730: expect support + bounce
• If QQQ fails under 730 (and fails the gap level):
  • potential move toward Friday highs
  • also tied to daily 20 SMA and the ~724 area
• Best idea (stated): “724 pullback long” if:
  • gap fills, and
  • demand appears at daily 20 / near Friday highs
• Continuation concepts:
  • Short continuation: break below 730 for a gap-fill short
  • Long continuation: reclaim 738 toward 742/745

Nasdaq futures broader chop risk area

• Approx. 30,400 to 30,565 (described as chop/reversion risk)

---

2) S&P 500 / ES (and SPY)

ES Levels

• Overnight/pre-market rejection: 7608–7612
• Support / downside pressure if broken: 7580–7585
• Targets if 7580 breaks: 7560–7550 (gap-related discussion)
• If buyers reclaim 7608–7612: move toward 7630

Warning (execution)

• Don’t front-run—avoid trying to short without break + retest rejection
• Watch for being trapped by breakdown sweeps

SPY Levels

• Breakdown trigger: below 749.50–750
• If rejected and breakdown continues:
  • potential gap-fill downside toward ~745–744
  • also tied to daily 20 / Friday highs

---

3) Nasdaq 100 Futures (Narrative Triggers)

• Emphasis on a rejection point above a prior level that became hard to reclaim
• Chop/focus band (as stated): 565–628

Bullish Pathway (today)

• Hold ~628
• Reclaim above 628 and hold
• Then look to long back toward the 755–800 area (~“150 points” upside mentioned)

Bearish Pathway (today)

• Break below ~381 (subtitles garbled, but this is the next trigger described)
• Then trade toward 282,250 (also appears garbled)

Biggest caution (as stated)

• Don’t go bearish if Friday highs hold
• He frames “beginning of the end” as failure below Friday highs
• If it occurs: expect downside back toward 30,020 and near 29,760–29,800 (these appear aligned with ES/NQ-style levels; subtitles likely garbled)

---

4) IWM (Russell 2000)

• Bullish requirement: reclaim 293.00–293.15 (after pullback to ~291)
• Bearish alternative: break below implies downside toward daily 20 SMA
• Preference: watch for reclaim for longs

---

5) SMH (Semiconductors ETF)

Key Stance

• He implies: don’t short if SMH is above prior day lows / key retest levels.
• Caution: if SMH is above previous day lows, prefer not to short.

Bearish triggers/targets (conceptual)

• If SMH fails: consider shorts toward daily 20
• Mentions:
  • A prior short thesis below 639.25 that worked via a gap fill (“short setup is over now”)
  • Another bearish trigger: breaking below yesterday’s lows with a possible target around 259.9 / daily 20
• Mentions possible higher rejections near 633–630 toward yesterday’s lows

---

Sector “Risk Filter”: Memory / DRAM

• DRAM described as strong, holding/claiming all-time highs
• Warning: if DRAM is holding all-time highs, don’t fight it / don’t short the market
• Levels referenced:
  • all-time highs around 69.50–70
  • reclaim/hold area around ~70 (subtitles include noisy “7069.50/70”-style wording)
  • “72728” all-time high mentioned (likely 72.728 or 72.7x; subtitles appear noisy)

If DRAM breaks

• If DRAM breaks below the all-time-high area, he would consider rejection/downside risk for the broader tape.

---

Individual Equities: Watch Levels & Tactics

HOOD (Robinhood)

• He says he locked profits and is out of the trade
• Possible reload zones:
  • 94, then 88
• Mentions: “102 daily 200 was our target” (target reached)

---

Apple (AAPL)

• Took profits during a squeeze move
• Current idea:
  • Must hold: 297–298
  • Higher low: described as “fantastic”
  • Upside target: 302

---

Tesla (TSLA)

• Not interested; described as a “show” with a tight range and risk of getting trapped.
• No specific numeric levels provided.

---

Nvidia (NVDA)

• “Not interested” overall, but notes:
  • Watch zone: 206–207
  • If strength holds: possible move toward 210
  • Must hold: 206–207

---

AMD

• Bullish trigger:
  • Get back above 530
  • Reclaim Monday’s lows around 527–530
• He prefers reclaim-based aggression (not interested inside the channel)

---

Micron (MU)

• Wait for a tight hold:
  • 10.36–10.40
• Wants a break + retest long from that zone
• Cautious: avoid being long into MU supply without all-time-high reclaim confirmation

---

Broadcom (AVGO)

• Mentions it’s holding his swing trade
• General patience: stay long while above major areas (above the 100, above the 200)
• No clean exact level provided.

---

MRVL

• References “perfect supply rejection”
• Support/structure zone:
  • 272–275 (key demand / higher-low region)
• If structure forms: “matter of time,” biased higher

---

ARM

• Strong bullish tone
• Must hold around 385–387 (otherwise weakens)
• If it holds and breaks above all-time highs: upside expected
• Notes supply rejections above but emphasizes consolidation above the channel

---

SNDK

• Highlights alignment of:
  • Friday highs
  • Monday lows
  • pre-market low
• No clean numeric trigger given.

---

Intel (INTC)

• “Daily 20 SMA pullback” setup
• Watch 114–115 for daily-20 pullback + break/retest structure

---

Amazon (AMZN)

• Looks for a potential higher low
• Reference highs/lows: 244–245

---

Meta (META)

• Needs to break and reclaim daily 20
• Warning: don’t get “zucked” at daily 20 (it failed recently and dropped hard)

---

Google (Alphabet)

• Same as META: must reclaim daily 20

---

Dell (DELL)

• Wants an “explosive move”
• Focus on holding 400–402
• If it holds: move toward 426–430
• Emphasizes behavior at prior weekly lows

---

CRWV

• Best trade ideas:
  • Best: retest long at 110–111
  • Alternative:
    • if pullback to daily 50 holds
    • if holds above 117: could extend to 122

---

NBIS

• He references owning shares purchased at $230 last week
• Current trade idea:
  • retest long around 260
• Upside supply around 275 is described as heavy resistance

---

Cautions / Risk Notes

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• Repeated warnings include:
  • Don’t front-run—wait for break + retest rejection
  • Avoid shorts that can get swept/trapped
  • Expect chop/no-trade into FOMC (2:00)
  • Don’t fight sector leadership—e.g., DRAM/memory holding highs suggests not shorting broadly
  • Maintain patience/self-control; don’t assume trend continuation inside chop zones

---

Presenters / Sources

• Presenter/host: referred to by chat nicknames (no explicit legal name shown)
• Economic calendar source: Forex Factory