Czarny Czwartek na WallStreet. Zakupy za 150 000 PLN. Ogromne przeceny to okazja?

Summary

The presenter says the public portfolio has fallen 15% from its peak, prompting a shift toward a more concentrated, conviction-based portfolio. Around PLN 150,000 was added or redirected into it, alongside other reallocations. He describes these moves as reallocations toward companies he currently prefers—not as decisions driven by panic. The portfolio could eventually hold 15–18 individual companies plus one ETF in a Global Equity Momentum strategy.

Portfolio changes and approach

• Sold an investment-plan ETF allocation covering developed markets, emerging markets, and bonds in a 60:30:10 ratio. The plan had produced about PLN 7,500 in profit; selling it released about PLN 27,000.
• Closed a position apparently in REITs, realizing a loss of about PLN 6,800. He said the decision reflected portfolio concentration, not a negative view of the sector.
• Sold Newag (NWG), citing a wish to reduce exposure to industrials and energy costs and focus more on relatively capital-light businesses.
• He may make further reallocations, but expects changes to be gradual and generally limited to several or perhaps a dozen percent of capital annually.

His stated framework is to:

• Prioritize businesses with the best prospects and avoid letting an investment’s past gains or losses dictate where capital stays.
• Hold while the business thesis remains intact. If it deteriorates, allow time to verify the change, then consider moving the capital.
• Accept that a share price may fall further after an initial purchase; add in stages if the business case remains sound.
• Compare companies over longer periods—often on a trailing 12-month basis—rather than treating one quarter as conclusive.
• Size positions with their risks in mind. For example, XTB’s position is limited by regulatory uncertainty.

He cautions that active investing and concentration are difficult. Investors uncomfortable with selling at a loss or changing positions may be better suited to ETFs.

Purchases and company updates

Digital Network (likely ticker: DIG)

The presenter bought 100 shares at PLN 287. He views the price as fair rather than a bargain and is prepared for further declines. The company’s capitalization was about PLN 1.3 billion; forecasts discussed imply roughly PLN 110–115 million of 2028 profit and a P/E near 11.

Preliminary Q3 earnings were PLN 53 million, up 154% year over year, but below Q2 and market expectations. He expects the new large-format screen to contribute more from Q4 and especially in 2027, which he says will be an important test of the company’s growth prospects.

XTB (XTB)

The presenter bought about PLN 43,000 more. XTB’s capitalization was about PLN 15 billion. He expects approximately PLN 1.5 billion in net profit this year, while saying PLN 1 billion could become a more regular baseline if growth continues and major risks do not materialize. Q3 net profit was estimated at PLN 213 million, above consensus.

XTB added 335,000 customers in Q3 and more than 1 million new customers after three quarters; the presenter estimated it would reach 1.45 million for the year. From 2027, he expects around 2 million new customers annually. He says customer-acquisition costs are declining and sees long-term potential in building the client base before monetizing it more fully.

Key risk: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) is considering changes that could separate equity investors from CFD clients. The outcome and earnings impact are uncertain. XTB represents about 14% of the presenter’s portfolio, and he says this risk limits further buying.

Synektik (SNT)

The presenter added about PLN 33,000, buying at around PLN 315. The company’s financial year is offset by one quarter, and results were due November 18.

He expects a slowdown in Da Vinci robot sales after the end of Poland’s KPO funding programme. mBank forecasts negative year-over-year revenue and profit dynamics, and the next four quarters may be less dynamic. Management nevertheless expects to sell 20–30 Da Vinci robots in the next financial year.

The presenter highlights recurring, higher-margin procedure-related consumables as increasingly important and sees potential support from new EU funding from 2028. Da Vinci 5 received EU certification for adult cardiac surgery.

ASBIS (ASB)

The presenter made his largest purchases here, including with proceeds from selling Newag; he did not specify the purchase amount. ASBIS’s capitalization had fallen to about PLN 8.5 billion.

He views ASBIS as a potential beneficiary of data-centre hardware demand and says its valuation is more grounded than that of some US semiconductor companies. Gartner raised its forecast for global data-centre spending growth in 2027 from 33% to 55%.

ASBIS’s Q3 gross margin fell to 6.16%, below management’s earlier 7% indication. The presenter argued that low-margin bulk server sales can still increase profits through volume and operating leverage. Q3 net profit was up 350% year over year (4.5 times). The company had made about PLN 490 million after three quarters, including nearly PLN 200 million in Q3. Ipopema’s 2026 net-profit forecast was about PLN 640 million.

He said he could gradually take profits, potentially in 2027, if the shares enter a more euphoric growth phase or data-centre spending expectations change. He also mentioned Nebius as a company he believes buys equipment from ASBIS, while describing possible links to hyperscaler projects outside the US as speculation.

Passus (PAS)

Q3 was operationally weaker year over year, which management attributed to a large contract settlement moving into Q4. On an incremental basis, revenue rose 37% and operating profit about 30%.

A reported loss at the profit level was attributed to accounting for an employee incentive programme, which the presenter said did not affect cash. He regards the report as neutral, expects average annual revenue growth above 15% amid favourable cybersecurity conditions, and will reassess the thesis after Q4 and through 2027. If the expected improvement is not apparent by the end of next year, he may sell.

Portfolio performance and risk

• Portfolio value after the changes: about PLN 2.5 million.
• Cumulative profit: under PLN 1.1 million, more than PLN 400,000 below the peak.
• Return over roughly 3.5 years: more than 200%, which the presenter describes as about 37% annualized on average.
• Return for the year: 51%, which he says substantially outperformed the indices.
• He says the portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points and returned about twice as much as the Nasdaq over the period discussed. Its advantage over WIG had narrowed from about 100 to 50 percentage points.
• Five companies make up nearly 90% of the portfolio. He accepts drawdowns of as much as 40% under this strategy and says falling prices could create more attractive buying opportunities, while acknowledging that market recoveries can take years.
• Portfolio performance is tracked using TVR, which measures investment effectiveness rather than the amount of capital contributed. He says transfers do not mechanically increase the reported rate of return.

Assets, sectors, and benchmarks mentioned

Stocks: Digital Network (likely DIG), XTB (XTB), Synektik (SNT), ASBIS (ASB), Passus (PAS), Newag (NWG), and Nebius.

Other holdings and instruments: Developed-market, emerging-market, and bond ETFs; a Global Equity Momentum ETF; apparently REITs; and US semiconductor stocks.

Sectors and themes: Data centres, hyperscalers, semiconductors, digital advertising, online brokerage and CFDs, medical robotics, cybersecurity, industrials, energy costs, metals, and oil.

Benchmarks: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and WIG.

Disclosures and cautions

XTB is identified as the episode’s partner, and the presenter says he uses the platform. He promotes commission-free trading up to €100,000 monthly turnover, subject to the platform’s terms. He also promotes his book and Portal Analiz.

The subtitles contain no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer. The presenter repeatedly flags investment risk, particularly XTB’s regulatory exposure, the possibility of further share-price declines, and the possibility that data-centre-related demand may not persist indefinitely.

Presenter and sources

The presenter is the unnamed host of Zawód Inwestor. Sources and organizations referenced include Gartner, mBank, Ipopema, LNX / Portal Analiz, company management, and the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF).