AKCIE V "KASINO MÓDU". Tohle teď dělám.

Summary

Dominik Kovařík describes the sell-off as “casino mode,” with unusually sharp moves, particularly in technology and AI-related stocks. He says the day’s declines were roughly 6% for the Nasdaq and 4% for the S&P 500. He considers the sell-off a potentially exaggerated shakeout, but stresses that the market could fall further and that the bottom is unknown.

Market context and possible drivers

Kovařík attributes part of the sell-off to investor concerns that Democratic control of Congress could lead to more AI regulation or slow data-center construction.

He cites a UBS estimate that construction delays could affect about 30% of planned U.S. data-center capacity additions by 2028. He presents this as a risk estimate, not a certainty. He argues that a slowdown could affect a broader AI-linked supply chain, including chips, storage, energy, and data centers. His personal view is that political rhetoric may not translate into a major slowdown, given the U.S. strategic and economic incentives to remain competitive with China.

He also notes that the S&P 500 equal-weight ETF (RSP) was down about 2.9%, less than the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, suggesting that larger companies were under greater pressure. Leverage can intensify declines, he says, as margin calls and stop-losses may trigger further selling.

Companies and market instruments mentioned

• Indexes and ETFs: S&P 500, Nasdaq, SMH (semiconductor ETF), RSP (equal-weight S&P 500 ETF)
• Stocks: Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Google/Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Adobe (ADBE), ServiceNow (NOW), AppLovin (APP)
• Options: Put options. Kovařík says he has been writing puts to collect premiums while implied volatility is elevated.

Price action and levels cited

The subtitles report approximate declines of 11% for Tesla, 8.9% for Nvidia, 15.5% for AMD, 4.2% for Meta, 2.6% for Amazon, 2% for Google, and 3% for Microsoft. Apple was described as still near its all-time high. Kovařík also says Micron was roughly 50% below its peak and below its 200-day moving average, while AMD was testing its 200-day moving average.

He describes the S&P 500 as about 6% below its high, with a nearer support area roughly 7% lower and a further level about 10% lower. He says a 10–20% decline is generally considered a correction, and a decline of 20% or more a bear market. Some of the subtitle figures for Nasdaq drawdowns and support levels are unclear.

Historical sell-off statistics cited

Kovařík analyzes historical index returns after large down days, using data going back to around March 1999. These are his calculations, not forecasts.

• For S&P 500 closes down about 3.9% or more, he reports average subsequent returns of approximately +6.3% at three months, +11.7% at six months, and +24.4% at 12 months. About 84.7% of 12-month outcomes were positive. The one-month figure is unclear in the subtitles.
• For Nasdaq declines around 6.44%, he cites 19 instances, with average returns of about +4.5% at one month, +7.5% at three months, +15.2% at six months, and +19.5% at 12 months.
• After excluding the dot-com bust and the 2007–09 financial crisis, he reports average returns of:
  • S&P 500: +3.5% at one month, +11.3% at three months, +17.9% at six months, and +27.5% at 12 months.
  • Nasdaq: nearly +6% at one month, +18% at three months, +32.6% at six months, and +46.8% at 12 months.
• In a broader sample that includes intraday declines that later recovered, he cites 78 S&P 500 instances and 27 Nasdaq instances. Reported 12-month average returns were about +22.5% for the S&P 500 and +11.6% for the Nasdaq, with positive outcomes in 79.5% and 59.3% of cases, respectively.

He emphasizes that crisis periods materially affect the results. For example, he says the dot-com period had weak subsequent annual outcomes, while some other historical samples showed strong rebounds. The subtitles contain apparent transcription errors in some figures and descriptions. Kovařík cautions that historical averages are not predictive guarantees and that a crisis cannot reliably be identified in advance.

Approach and risk management

Kovařík says he added to positions in his investment club during the sell-off. He also says he has been writing put options, seeking premiums from elevated implied volatility and choosing strike prices below the current share price. He notes that options can still carry substantial risk and does not present this as a guaranteed strategy.

He views the downturn as a possible buying opportunity, while warning that prices could continue lower and describing the market as a “falling knife.” He frames trading and investing decisions as matters of probability, not certainty.

For swing trading, he emphasizes position sizing and the relationship between average gains and losses. A strategy can be profitable with a win rate around 50% if gains on winning trades exceed losses on losing ones.

For long-term investing, he says he looks for companies he has researched, estimates their fair value, is willing to hold for several years, and may add at lower prices. He also mentions the historical tendency for stocks to perform well in the fourth quarter after U.S. midterm elections, while noting that the current market action is moving in the opposite direction.

Disclosures

Kovařík says the views are his personal opinions, investing is risky, and the video is not investment advice. He states that he has invested since 2008 and manages just over CZK 40 million in public portfolios through his investment club.

Presenter/source: Dominik Kovařík.