We’ll Never Beat the Houthis

Summary

John Mearsheimer argues that the United States should not open a new war against the Houthis. He distinguishes between two conflicts: the United States and Iran are in a lull in their war, while the Houthis are fighting Saudi Arabia and Saudi-aligned forces in Yemen.

He says the United States tried and failed to defeat the Houthis in 2025, and that the campaign consumed valuable munitions. In his view, the United States has even fewer munitions available after its prolonged conflict with Iran, leaving it unable either to defeat the Houthis or to reliably protect Saudi Arabia from retaliation.

Mearsheimer considers the Houthis strategically significant because they could disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and strike Saudi infrastructure. He refers to reports that the Houthis had again blocked a Saudi oil pipeline, while cautioning that the reports were difficult to verify. He warns that another U.S.-Saudi campaign could prompt further attacks on oil infrastructure and increase risks to global oil supplies.

He also argues that if the Houthis appeared close to defeat, Iran might intervene on their behalf, drawing the United States back into a conflict it cannot win. His broader conclusion is that Washington has no viable strategy for achieving victory in the Gulf or the wider Middle East.

Presenter and Contributor

• John Mearsheimer — presenter and commentator
• Ed Hod App 6465 — channel member who submitted the question