«Группа Астра»: байбэк и падение акций. Что делать с ЮГК, Самолетом и Газпромом? Какие ОФЗ интересны

Main market updates and arguments

1) Macro backdrop: inflation pressures, rate-cut debate, and bond market reaction

• Global “risk” sentiment remains negative, with overseas markets falling; in Russia the main index finished slightly down (about -0.1%).
• Weekly inflation increased again: growth in food and gasoline prices accelerated, while services inflation slowed only in parts (notably tourism’s volatile component).
• The Central Bank’s analysis suggests the recent deceleration in inflation was largely due to:
  • cheaper fruits/vegetables
  • a stronger ruble
  • while underlying/stable inflation is still easing slowly
• In the discussion, the forecast for the key rate cut:
  • Alexander Panfilov and others leaned to ~50 bps for now (not changing the direction), arguing the Central Bank needs to be cautious with money supply after past “mistakes.”
  • They referenced Vladimir Putin’s remark that anti-inflation measures are working and there is reason to lower the key rate.
• Fiscal framing: Russia’s budget planning is moving toward a zero structural primary deficit (targeting by 2029, with debate about earlier assumptions).
  • Panfilov argued this doesn’t necessarily break the rate-cut path because the state can handle borrowing: government debt is small relative to GDP (cautious but manageable).

2) OFZ positioning: long-end supply is limited; curve could steepen normally

• During OFZ auctions, long-dated papers were less in supply than expected (no long issues placed in that segment), and demand was relatively strong for selected maturities.
• Commentators argued that long-term OFZs may not be “overcrowded” and could start trading at a premium to short-term rates if the rate-cut cycle continues.
• Key practical takeaway:
  • If the key rate drops by ~50 bps over the next meetings, 8-year OFZs could become an attractive instrument due to expected curve dynamics.

3) Currency and commodities: ruble strength is a risk factor for forecasts

• Analysts reportedly lowered their ruble expectations (a stronger ruble path), but Panfilov warned that where/when ruble pressure will reappear depends on oil-related dynamics.
• Oil refining economics and petroleum product costs were highlighted as still high, meaning the ruble/oil linkage may remain complex.

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Equities focus

4) “Astra Group” (Астра): weak Q1 results, but management disputes that it reflects the full-year picture

• The CEO Ilya Sivtsev said Astra’s Q1 looked weak mainly due to client budget timing and seasonality rather than a collapse in demand.
• Headline deterioration:
  • Shipments -4% YoY
  • Revenue -15% YoY
• CEO explanation:
  • Shipments are treated as revenue under RAS “as shipped” logic (without VAT), so they can swing with timing of contracts and delivery.
  • A key issue is the difference between shipments and revenue under IFRS, where revenue from prior-period certificates can be recognized differently across reporting periods.
  • Management pointed to improving months afterward (April/May within a broader 5-month view).
• Outlook:
  • Astra expects that H1 and the full year should look better for investors than Q1.
  • Management reiterated a medium-term growth target (motivational program referencing mid-20s to 30% growth range and an average >30% annual rate over a longer horizon), but acknowledged the possibility of missing the “headline” growth this year due to deal timing.
• Margin pressure drivers (CEO):
  • Changes in the Unified Social Tax rate for IT-Russian regimes.
  • Timing of reserves/bonuses and depreciation (including cloud-related projects started in January).
  • Overall expenses rose; the company argued this is partly unavoidable due to maintaining an IT workforce needed for customer delivery quality.

5) Astra stock collapse and “buyback” question: management claims no manipulation, buyback is for employee motivation

• The discussion linked Astra’s share price drop and unusual trading volumes to potential ownership/free-float and lock-up mechanics after major events.
• CEO denied meaningful insider selling and argued the buyback is small (about half of daily turnover), intended mainly for:
  • using quasi-treasury shares to motivate employees
  • past/employment-related share-based programs and subsidiary minority buyouts
• When asked whether management is “upset” and if buybacks are merely to support the price:
  • CEO response: the buyback is not about market manipulation, and management’s role is to execute business and show results.
• Additional market-structure explanation:
  • Possible effects from repo/ownership notifications, lock-up endings, and trading mechanics were raised.
  • Participants noted that similar “lock-up dump” dynamics occur globally after lock-ups end, causing volatility.

6) Broader market “Black Monday” tone: risks from rate/yield curve, geopolitics, and stronger ruble

• Another contributor argued the decline is being priced across the market as investors adjust for:
  • geopolitical uncertainty and stalled “peace talks”
  • a more deficit-heavy budget path
  • higher-than-desired inflation
  • rate forecast increases by banks
  • strong ruble impacting company profits
• Conclusion:
  • It may be safer not to “buy the market broadly” but instead pick specific stories, with attention to medium/long OFZ given yield curve changes.

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Specific stock picks and asset allocation views

7) Sberbank as the “bright spot”

• Finam’s expert emphasized Sberbank:
  • Net profit up (~+21% in the cited 5-month/period figures)
  • interest income growth
  • operating expenses up, but slower than revenue
  • loan portfolio growing, including consumer lending stabilization
• They noted that the stock trades relatively near highs compared with the sector.
• Dividend potential was discussed as high (targeted around double-digit dividend yield in the commentary).

8) Gazprom and “dividend expectations” risk

• The view on Gazprom was cautious:
  • Gazprom is described as dividend-dependent in market pricing, and current dividend visibility is limited.
  • Thus, even with business profitability, the market may discount it differently.

9) Gold and precious metals: trend has turned; future upside questioned

• Gold was criticized as having already lost substantial value (about down several percent on the day, per commentary).
• The expert argued the earlier precious-metals rally was overstated/unjustified, and future growth odds are low.
• Similar skepticism was extended to other metals where dividends/cash yield are not realized.

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New/IPO and auction items

10) “Dutch auction”/buyout and cable manufacturer (Cuppholding)

• The panel discussed pending listings/auctions tied to minority buyouts:
  • auctions might clear only at low acceptable prices, with a “buyers wait for cheapness” dynamic
• They also covered the planned listing of Russian cable manufacturer Cuppholding (30m additional shares; proceeds to reduce debt), but Finam was not convinced it is priority under current conditions—citing small revenue and significant debt.

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Presenters / contributors

• Maxim Orlovsky (studio presenter)
• Alexander Panfilov (studio presenter)
• Marat Rachel (Finam, guest analyst)
• Ilya Sivtsev (General Director, Astra Group)