‫💎 پیش بینی جفت ارز (USDJPY) 11 اسفند 1404 — نوسان USDJPY زیر فشار دلار و ین [تریدینگ فایندر]

Focus

USD/JPY (US dollar vs Japanese yen) — technical and macro analysis with trade guidance.

Instruments / tickers / events referenced

• USD/JPY currency pair (primary focus)
• USD and JPY currency strength comparison
• Macroeconomic events: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD), Bank of Japan Governor speech (JPY)
• Geopolitical context: conflict between Iran and the United States (noted as a macro driver)

Key technical observations & levels

• Recent move into the ~152 area followed by a reaction at the monthly BPR area and a subsequent rebound.
• Early‑2026 price approached the ~159 area and then pulled back after reacting to that area.
• Short‑term low cited: 156.79.
• Analyst expects price to return toward ~159.9–160 on a re‑test; expects intervention and a sharp drop if price reaches that zone.
• 4‑hour timeframe: price trading inside an ascending channel and repeatedly reacting to channel lines.
• 1‑hour timeframe: short correction, liquidity collection, drop to 156.79, then resumed upward movement.
• A daily‑timeframe subtitle referenced “about 80% growth” — appears ambiguous or erroneous and should be treated with caution.

Methodology / framework

1. Top‑down timeframe analysis:
   • Monthly: identify BPR (bias/reaction) area.
   • Weekly: observe reactions around ~159.
   • Daily: trend and candle structure.
   • 4‑hour: ascending channel structure.
   • 1‑hour: liquidity collection and timing of entries.
2. Confirm directional bias using a currency strength chart (USD strength vs JPY weakness).
3. Identify structural technical areas for entries:
   • Monthly BPR (structural bias/reaction area).
   • Ascending channel on the 4‑hour chart.
   • Domestic liquidity areas / Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) for entry zones.
   • Lower‑timeframe liquidity aggregation for precise timing.
4. Trade bias: only look for buy setups while the trend and USD strength persist.
5. Entry approach: wait for liquidity gathering around identified domestic liquidity zones or FVGs for higher‑probability buys.
6. Risk management: strict risk and capital management is emphasized, especially given geopolitical uncertainty.

Macro / fundamental drivers

• USD strength: the dollar is cited as one of the strongest recent currencies; the yen as one of the weakest.
• Geopolitical shock: the Iran–US conflict is noted as having increased dollar demand and supporting USD/JPY upside.
• Intervention risk: verbal or actual intervention by Japanese authorities (and possibly other actors) is expected around the 159.9–160 area, which could trigger sharp declines.
• Near‑term data/events to monitor: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) and Bank of Japan Governor speech (JPY).

Trade recommendations and cautions

• Current bias: favor buying USD/JPY while the uptrend and USD strength continue.
• Use lower‑timeframe liquidity and FVG confirmations to time entries; target higher levels where liquidity accumulates.
• Caution: markets can become emotional and unpredictable during geopolitical conflict — maintain strict risk and capital management.
• Watch for potential intervention around ~159–160; that zone could reverse moves quickly.

Performance metrics & specific levels to watch

• Key levels mentioned:
  • ~152 — recent low / reaction area
  • 156.79 — short correction low
  • ~159 — weekly resistance / reaction area
  • ~159.9–160 — expected intervention zone
• Note: the subtitle claim of “about 80% growth” on the daily timeframe is likely an erroneous or ambiguous figure — verify against live charts before using.

Other notes / disclosures

• No formal “not financial advice” text in the subtitles; presenter repeatedly emphasizes strict risk/capital management.
• Presenter recommended a “Trading Journal app for MetaTrader 4” (free).
• Subtitles contain some unclear or likely erroneous numeric transcriptions (examples: “80% growth”, “1599”) — treat subtitle numbers cautiously and verify on live charts.

Warning: some subtitle figures appear mistranscribed or ambiguous. Always verify levels and metrics on your own charts and apply appropriate risk controls.

Presenter / source

• Trading Finder (video/channel presenter; unnamed analyst in subtitles)