What Are Your Chances Off the Waitlist?

Summary

Mike Spivey explains why it is difficult to calculate an applicant’s chances of getting into law school from a waitlist. His central point is that there is no reliable, universal percentage: outcomes depend on the school, the current admissions cycle, and how the school’s class is taking shape.

Why chances vary

• Each admissions cycle is different. Past-cycle statistics may not predict the current cycle, and current-cycle information is limited and changes as schools receive deposits and make decisions.
• Waitlists are school-specific. Even schools with similar rankings or locations may have very different applicant pools and class needs.
• Schools build a balanced class. They may seek a mix of backgrounds, perspectives, regions, political viewpoints, and work experience. For example, a school with many applicants who have work experience might look for applicants coming directly from college, and vice versa.
• Applicants usually cannot see what a school still needs. Schools do not publicly disclose their current class composition or the kinds of candidates they hope to add.

Waitlist movement and interpreting the numbers

Schools continue to monitor deposited students, and some deposits may fall through even late in the summer or near orientation. As a result, waitlist offers can come late.

Spivey recounts a client who had started orientation at Michigan when Stanford admitted him. The client had contacted Stanford to reaffirm his strong interest and was admitted on Stanford’s first day of orientation.

Spivey says the cycle discussed in the episode had been unusually slow, and admissions deans were preparing to use their waitlists. He expected multiple waves of offers, though applicants might not receive an offer in every wave.

A statement that up to half of a school’s entering class could come from its waitlist does not mean that half of all waitlisted applicants will be admitted—or that any individual has a 50% chance.

• The share of a class that ultimately enrolls from the waitlist depends on how many people are waitlisted, how many receive offers, and how many of those applicants choose to enroll.
• Schools differ considerably: some waitlist many applicants and may admit substantial numbers, while others admit very few from their waitlists.
• Small or incomplete datasets, including self-reported data, cannot establish an individual applicant’s odds.

Practical guidance

• Be cautious of anyone assigning a precise percentage to an individual applicant without access to the school’s current admissions information.
• Applicants can ask the admissions office about their position or the school’s expectations, particularly when they need to make decisions about housing or where to live. Some offices may provide candid guidance, such as whether the applicant is in a higher waitlist tier or whether the school expects to reach that tier.
• A cycle is not necessarily over just because an applicant has received several rejections or waitlist decisions; pending decisions and later waitlist movement can still change the outcome.

Brief comments beyond the waitlist topic

• Spivey encourages people entering demanding legal careers to protect time for rest and balance, rather than treating long hours as something to glorify.
• He cautions applicants against focusing too early on the following admissions cycle. He says forecasts will be more informed in July and August, when more data—such as LSAT registrant numbers and broader demographic trends—becomes available. His early guess was that applications might rise, but he emphasized that the prediction was tentative.

Speakers and sources featured

• Mike Spivey — the episode’s speaker and host.
• Two unnamed admissions deans — referenced by Spivey as discussing plans to use their waitlists; they are not identified by name.
• An unnamed client — featured in Spivey’s anecdote about moving from Michigan to Stanford after a late waitlist admission.
• Reddit and Law School Data — mentioned as places where waitlist claims or limited applicant-reported data may appear; neither is presented as a speaker.