The Stock Market Is About to Catch Everyone Off Guard… My Next Move | SPY

Market Outlook

The presenter describes a sharp selloff in SPY, saying it fell about 4.3%. Their prior bearish setup was based on resistance, lower highs, and repeated bearish 30-minute candle patterns. They say SPY failed near 768.50, broke below 766 and the prior-day lows, and that buying calls during the decline lacked confirmation.

For the next session, described as Friday, the presenter expects opportunities on both sides but leans bullish if SPY opens with a modest gap up or holds support. They caution that a large gap up could reverse, and that a decisive break below 726 would turn the setup bearish. They emphasize elevated volatility and advise using smaller position sizes.

Levels and Scenarios

The transcript’s level references are occasionally unclear. The presenter mentions:

• Prior close / reference levels: Approximately 766.73; the video also identifies 733.13 as the latest close.
• Potential bullish areas: 737–739 as a breakout or gap-and-go area; prior-day lows and 726–728 as potential dip-buying or rebound zones.
• If SPY breaks below 726: Watch 721 and 717 as lower support or bounce areas. The presenter calls this a lower-probability scenario and says they may stay out below 726, waiting for bullish confirmation near 721–717.
• Potential resistance / put areas: Around 744–745, 752, and 766. The presenter says to wait for bearish confirmation at resistance rather than shorting in advance.
• Key decision point: A break above the stated breakout area would favor bulls; a bearish reaction at resistance would favor puts. The presenter also describes 745 as a make-or-break area.

Trading Framework

The presenter recommends using price action and confirmation rather than entering solely because the market appears oversold or overbought.

• Favor calls on confirmed oversold dips or a modest gap-up or gap-and-go; avoid chasing a large opening gap.
• Favor puts at resistance only after bearish confirmation, such as rejection or lower highs; avoid shorting directly at prior-day lows.
• For a countertrend trade on a strongly bearish day, the presenter says to try once and stop if it fails.
• In high volatility, reduce position size and avoid chasing losses.
• The presenter also recommends moving profit stops upward on winning trades and adding only to winning positions.

Trades and Performance Claims

The presenter reports:

• SPY puts described as “759” puts: Bought at $0.46 and later added to at $0.71 and $0.91. They claim the trade produced about a 100% profit. The transcript does not clearly specify the precise exits or quantities.
• SPY 745 calls: Bought at $0.57, reportedly fell as low as $0.27, and later reached $0.94.
• Countertrend call attempt: Reportedly lost 60%; the presenter says they stopped after one attempt.
• Other performance claims: The presenter cites a member’s 10× gain on a trade and a 600% S&P trade gain from the previous day. These are promotional, self-reported figures and are not independently verified in the video.

The presenter promotes Team ROAR’s real-time options alerts and says the strategy’s wins outweigh its losses. Those claims should be treated as marketing rather than audited performance information.

Risks and Disclosures

• The video concerns short-dated, far-out-of-the-money options, which can lose all of their value. The presenter acknowledges that an options position can lose 100%.
• The presenter warns that volatility can cause rapid losses and recommends smaller positions.
• Their risk-management advice is inconsistent: they discuss limiting risk and using profit stops, but also advise viewers to hold trades and say not to use stop-losses. This approach could expose traders to substantial losses.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• SPY options: puts and calls
• S&P / S&P options or futures; the presenter says they trade the S&P after 3:30
• Futures, mentioned as instruments for using the presenter’s levels

Presenter and Sources

The speaker is not named in the subtitles. The video is from Traders Society and promotes Team ROAR; the supplied metadata identifies Geerawr in connection with the alert service.