This Hasn't Happened To Silver Since The 2008 Bottom

Summary

Rafi Farber argues that silver may be nearing a major bottom, based on a pattern in SLV’s silver holdings and the silver price that he says last appeared in 2008. He also sees a potential breakout in gold and silver miners priced in metal, while expecting bond yields to resume rising.

Key Market Observations and Claims

• Gold and silver miners relative to gold: The XAU-to-gold ratio—gold stocks valued in gold ounces—has returned to levels Farber compares with the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. He says the ratio is approaching or has just moved beyond a roughly 20-year resistance area.
• HUI index: A similar chart of the HUI shows comparable levels, with resistance last tested in 2016. Farber expects a break above resistance “sooner rather than later.”
• SLV holdings versus silver: Farber says SLV’s reported silver holdings rose from about 14,850 tonnes in mid-July to roughly 15,700–15,750 tonnes, while silver’s price declined. He interprets rising holdings during falling prices as speculative accumulation.
• He says this sustained divergence between falling silver prices and rising SLV holdings has appeared only once before in SLV’s history: in 2008, ahead of silver’s eventual rally. He compares the current setup with accumulation before the rally that culminated in silver’s 2011 peak near $50.
• Silver price correction: Farber describes a decline from about $120 on January 29 to below $50, followed by a move back above $50—a correction of more than 50%. He believes the correction is nearly over and that a major move may be imminent, though it could take a week or a month.
• Interest rates and inflation: Farber says an above-expectations CPI reading helped reverse a recent decline in yields. The 10-year yield was around 4.89% and near 5%, with his chart indicating resistance or trend levels around 5.03% and an upward trend. He also points to trend lines suggesting yields may rise further.
• 20-year Treasury yield: Farber says the 20-year yield could reach 6% before the 30-year yield, citing a technical-market article that he does not explain in detail. He speculates that this level could trigger a disruptive “waterfall” in the bond market.

Framework and Investment Views

• Compare miners’ value in gold ounces, rather than only in dollars, using the XAU-to-gold ratio and HUI as indicators of relative valuation.
• Track SLV holdings alongside silver’s price. Farber treats rising holdings during falling prices as evidence of accumulation and a possible bottoming signal.
• Monitor Treasury yields against trend lines and moving averages:
  • The 10-year chart includes a 20-day exponential moving average and a 50-day moving average, which Farber says was around 5.03%.
  • He views the recent yield rebound as consistent with a resumed upward trend.

Recommendations and Cautions

Farber says gold and silver stocks may be attractive to investors willing to take the risk, given their low valuations relative to gold and the possibility of a resistance breakout.

He favors physical silver for long-term accumulation and says he is not advocating SLV as a way to prepare for his view of a monetary “endgame.” He mentions SLV options or leverage only as possibilities, not as recommendations.

Farber expects miners to rise first in gold and silver terms, and potentially more in dollar terms if the Federal Reserve resumes money creation. He warns that a move in the 20-year yield to 6% could be associated with serious bond-market stress. His view that higher rates could ultimately force the Fed to print money and undermine the dollar is a forecast, not an established outcome.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• Silver, gold, and physical bullion
• SLV silver ETF
• XAU gold-stock index and HUI gold-miner index
• Gold and silver mining stocks
• U.S. Treasury yields: 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year maturities
• CPI and Federal Reserve policy

Disclosures and Sources

No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. Farber promotes his paid Substack, Patreon, a safe, and Miles Franklin bullion services; the video does not provide a detailed disclosure of any commercial relationships.

Presenter/source: Rafi Farber, The Endgame Investor. Other references include SLV holdings and chart data, as well as an unnamed article about a possible 6% threshold for the 20-year Treasury yield.