Trading Gold with Maciej

Finance-Focused Summary (Gold “Macro + Execution” Framework)

Key Themes / Recommendations

• Don’t predict gold’s next candle. Instead, build scenarios using:

  • Macro context
  • Market structure Then trade only when price is at a specific location and the market provides confirmation.

• Gold is driven by competing forces. Your job is to determine which driver dominates, such as:

  • Rates
  • USD (DXY)
  • Risk / stress
  • Positioning and ETF flows
  • Momentum
• Correlation is a hypothesis, not a trade signal. For entries, require all of:
  • Location (where price is)
  • Price behavior (what it does there)
  • A reversal / confirmation scenario
• Prefer real yields / inflation expectations over nominal yields alone, because the simplistic rule:
  • “10-year up → gold down” can fail when inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields imply real-rate changes.

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Tickers / Instruments / Data References

Gold & Related

• Gold futures: GCZ (also references GC generally)
• Spot gold: “gold” (priced per ounce)
• Gold ETF: GLD
• Silver (related):
  • SLV (ETF)
  • “AGC” (likely silver futures as it appears in subtitles)
  • Mentions silver options / volatility context

Rates / Treasuries

• US 10-year notes / T-bond yields: “10-year” (T-notes / T-bonds)
• US 2-year yields: “2-year” (T-notes / 2-year; also references “2-year bonds”)
• 3-year bonds
• TIPS (used for inflation expectations / real yields)—explicitly recommended over nominal 10-year yields
• Futures references:
  • ZB, ZN (Treasury futures)

Currencies

• DXY (“Dixie”)
• USD/JPY (explicitly mentioned as sometimes important)
• Example USD pairs mentioned:
  • USD/PLN
  • USD/ZAR

Volatility / Options

• GVZ (Gold volatility index) used as a coefficient / risk estimator for GLD
• VIX (context indicator)
• MOVE (rates volatility index; noted as not preferred by the trainer, but mentioned)
• Options / derivatives terms:
  • Gamma
  • Calls / puts
  • Strikes
  • Open interest
  • “Deck(s)” (and “gex” mentioned)

Positioning / Derivatives Data

• COT (CFTC Commitments of Traders): weekly
• CTA data: daily, described as “one day late”
• Mentions COT release timing (“released Friday”)
• Notes central bank demand for safe-haven

Energy / Inflation Proxy

• Crude oil (used as part of the inflation/risk picture)

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Macro Catalysts (Explicit)

• CPI
• PCE
• PPI
• NFP
• FOMC
• “Trump’s tweets” (and broader geopolitical/political shocks)
• Mentions macro 2-year news (2-year rates/news emphasis)

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Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework (A-B-C + Diagnostics)

A) Catalyst Selection (What Can Revalue Gold?)

• Focus on major releases:
  • CPI, PCE, PPI, NFP, FOMC
• Include shocks (e.g., political tweets)

B) Macro Drivers Check

• Rates: prioritize 2-year, 10-year, 3-year, and especially real yields via TIPS
• Dollar index: DXY
• Volatility regime: GVZ, VIX (optionally MOVE)
• Optional inflation proxy: crude oil

C) Execution (Trade Only With Location + Confirmation)

• Trade only with defined market location and confirmation
• Use market structure tools:
  • Volume profile / market profile
  • VWAP and high/low volume zones (VAH/VAL)
  • Order flow / volume-delta / absorption / liquidity
• Risk control:
  • Translate stop distance into real money risk
  • Size appropriately to volatility/regime

Scenario Logic / Decision Tree

• If correlation breaks down, check which other driver is dominating:
  • risk/hedging demand
  • positioning / ETF flows
  • central bank safe-haven demand
  • momentum
• Use Plan A / Plan B / Plan C style decision logic.

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Volatility / Derivatives Framework (How GVZ Is Used)

• GVZ is used primarily as a coefficient to estimate expected movement magnitude in GLD, not direction.
• Example provided:
  • GVZ = 32 ⇒ implies ~±2% daily movement in GLD
  • If GLD ≈ 400, then ±2% ≈ ±8 ⇒ roughly 408 or 392
• VIX is not treated as a direct buy signal; it provides context (e.g., stock volatility rising while gold holds).

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Bond-Yield Rule Clarification (Risk Logic)

• Base mental model often taught:
  • Nominal 10-year yield up → gold usually down (inverse relationship)
• Exception logic:
  • If inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields suggest such that real yields fall, then gold can rise even while nominal yields rise
• Emphasis:
  • Use TIPS / real yields for “real” rate work
• Timing utility:
  • 2-year yields often react faster to shifts in expectations for monetary policy.

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Risk Management / Execution Cautions

• Don’t force trades simply because rates and DXY “should” move inversely with gold.
• ETF data is slower than price:
  • use ETF flows to confirm demand
  • don’t treat them as a fast 5-minute entry trigger
• Trade with defined risk and exit quickly if the setup isn’t worth the risk.
• Use options/market signals (large gaps, open interest, “decks/gamma,” etc.) to avoid impulsive entries.

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Performance / Market Structure Examples & Key Numbers (As Stated)

Live Market Example

• Waiting for gold futures (GCZ) around ~4150, then later “caught it.”

Intraday Levels Referenced

• Mentions “today” levels: 4150, 4200 / 42, 4330
• Mentions “three main levels” phrasing as noisy, but clusters around approximately:
  • ~4150 and low-4200s
• Notes about VWAP:
  • when price is far below/above daily VWAP, that is described as highly informative (“mega-powerful information”).

Options Positioning / Open Interest Examples

• Mentions a “big strike on GC at 4000k” (formatting unclear, but refers to strike-level activity)
• Claims: from that bottom, about +$700 upside
• Another example (subtitle noise; exact metric unclear):
  • “end of the day: it went from 1.4 million to over 2 million”
• Open interest / strike-region mentions:
  • open interest > 1 billion around 4250
  • “almost 5,000 open interest” near 4150

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” or similar disclaimer was found in the provided subtitles.

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Presenter(s) / Sources (Explicitly Mentioned)

• Maciej (main presenter / trainer)
• Fabio (mentioned as receiving the masterclass material)
• World Gold Council (WGC)
• CBOE (referenced as “CBOE GBC…relates to GLD”)
• CME futures website (futures source)
• Mentor Q / Mentor 3.0 (internal platform/documentation reference)
• CFTC (for COT positioning data)