2026 식품외식산업 전망 [1일 차, 식품]

Business-focused summary (Foodservice/Food Industry Outlook & Execution Themes)

1) Macro outlook (why strategy matters now)

The session frames 2016 (and “10 years of change”) as a period that requires foodservice/food businesses to continuously update offerings due to:

• Climate change and high global tariffs
• Tariff/FX uncertainty and rising input costs, including:
  • materials
  • labor
  • logistics
• Demographic shifts, including:
  • low birth rate
  • population aging
  • rapid growth of single-person households

Result: demand shifts toward at-home/solo formats, meaning businesses need data-driven operating decisions.

2) Export strategy redefined (from “selling abroad” to “expanding territory”)

Export is positioned as a mission, not a reactive activity that follows what others do.

Concrete positioning: “Korean food territory”

• Expand global presence through shareable taste/aroma/culture
• Enabled by:
  • technology
  • product development

Execution logic: 3-way value alignment

Export success requires alignment among value created for:

1. The nation
2. Farmers/fishermen
3. The company

Scale examples cited:

• Exports to 208 countries (used as proof of reach)
• “UN-level” comparison: 208 vs 193 (UN member countries)

3) Big-data consumer insight playbook (food culture & trends)

Presenter: Park Hyun-young, Lifestyle Change Observatory

How food culture is analyzed

• Uses AI + profiling
• Compares Korean vs Japanese convenience store media signals
  • signals = social posts with brand tags
• Focuses on what becomes “content” (what people talk about), not only what people eat

Key trend areas (framed for 2016/2026)

• “Eat at home vs eat out” as dining behavior axes
• Dessert content and why Korean items show strong visibility
  • innovation and experience matter more than price
  • emphasis on “contentability”
• During COVID, home-cooked behaviors rose, then stabilized or declined depending on format

Home-meal replacement: meal prep & lunch boxes as a repeatable system

Meal prep adoption persists when it has multiple drivers:

• Economics: rising food prices → cost-saving
• Health: ingredient control
• Time efficiency: prep in advance
• Psychological pride: social media credibility
• Social convenience: a structure/excuse for eating alone

Brand capture challenge (explicitly stated):

“Is there any company that has captured meal prep?”

This implies a first-mover branding opportunity.

Distribution channel shift (where the money moves)

Channels rising for at-home cooking sourcing include:

• Coupang (tied to speed/convenience needs)
• Costco (bulk + portioning logic)
• Daiso (basic cooking tools & containers for non-experts)

Examples:

• Costco growth is explained by:
  • meal-prep/portioning compatibility
  • retailer content loops (e.g., “viral recommendation videos” driving views)
• Daiso enables non-experts via accessible tools and container formats

4) Data-backed dining format growth: “One-hand / one-bowl / one-dish”

Presenter: Prof. Moon Jeong-hoon, FoodBiz Lab (Seoul National University)

Central prediction

• Solo-friendly formats keep winning

Execution interpretation (reduce friction)

• fewer side dishes
• grab-and-go / bowl formats
• compatibility with delivery and convenience shopping

Growth metrics (from lecture charts)

• Rice bowls: intake frequency +8.2% (also noted as a likely future top-5 category)

• Salad bowls: +22.2%

• Bibimbap: +13.7%
• Sandwiches: +7.0%
• Korean noodles (incl. cold noodles): +4.8%
• A “meal formats suitable for solo eating” cluster is the main growth set

5) Ingredient & wellness trend translation (what to build)

Dessert comfort + health contradiction

The lecture frames health anxiety as still driving purchases—even as consumers want comfort.

• Desserts/breads rise because they deliver comfort
• Execution takeaway: build products that bridge:
  • perceived health (e.g., low sugar / low spike)
  • sensory satisfaction (texture/chew/crisp/smell)
  • comfort & socialization (meeting people, emotional easing)

Low-sugar & blood-sugar spike management (experimental direction)

Presenter: Prof. Moon Jeong-hoon includes Kakao-linked monitoring experiments.

Approach:

• pair food inputs with continuous glucose monitoring via an app (“Pasta diet” mentioned)

Illustrative findings (directional):

• some items show higher glucose spikes
• others (e.g., certain salads/seafood salad and pairings) show lower spikes

Example comparisons:

• “Apple + peanut butter” vs apple alone
  • combined can change spike patterns
  • reported as “went up less” in their test
• Plant-based milk varies; oat milk flagged as showing more noticeable spike patterns in cited observations

6) Global product strategy framework (Mintel-style “future nutrition” & innovation)

Presenter: Baek Jong-hyun, Mintel Korea (Global Hourly Wage Trends)

Mintel as a data system

Four data axes:

• shoppers/signal tracking
• analysts’ category reports
• multi-country consumer surveys
• social listening

Three business theses for 2026

1. Diversification from “maxing” Move from single-nutrient focus (protein/fiber) → variety as the new standard

2. Retro reinterpretation Nostalgia/comfort via traditional wisdom adapted to new formats

3. Multi-sensory design (experience-first) Beyond taste: texture, aroma, sound, interaction Also expand to marginalized consumers

Next-gen product playbook examples

• Protein expansion: from “protein as bodybuilder” → diversified protein materials + convenient formats
• Comfort marketing: “Zoo-sleep comfort design”-style campaigns
  • Morinaga Dairy cited as a case where comfort cues drove major sales quickly
• Sensory-led launches: sound/texture/crispiness used as snack/beverage differentiators

7) Company/industry operations & margin pressures (risk and cost mechanics)

Presenter: Kim Sang-hyo, Researcher (Korean rural economy / food industry & consumer economics)

Operational reality checklist for 2026

• Raw material cost dominates
  • raw materials often >60% of costs
  • in some segments 70–80%
• FX/import pass-through is critical
  • import unit price depends on exchange rate
  • even if transaction prices drop, FX can keep import unit prices high

Margin/capacity implications

• Food manufacturing operating profit margin:
  • overall rises to around 4.6% (2024) (segment dependent)
• Beverage margins:
  • example ~9.2% cited

Industry structure and risk

• “Rescue operations” framing:
  • closures exceed openings
  • closures concentrated in late year
• Continued pressure in 2025:
  • projected ~7,800 closures (as cited)

8) Online commerce & distribution: measurable KPIs & direction

Presenter: Kim Sang-hyo

• Online channel is rising, especially for processed foods

Key targets/KPIs mentioned:

• Online share for food purchasing increases over time:
  • online purchasing predicted around ~10%
  • processed foods up to ~15%

Scale cited:

• Processed products: roughly 33 trillion won/month mentioned (online transaction scope; figures vary by slide context)
• Food delivery online:
  • growth continues (emphasis: not declining quickly)

9) Actionable recommendations implied across speakers

• Build solo-first product formats
  • one-bowl/one-hand designs
  • fewer side dependencies
  • portable and delivery-compatible
• Own a habit loop (meal prep)
  • branding + subscription/prep-friendly packaging + social-content assets
• Optimize distribution-channel fit
  • tailor the product story to channel role (e.g., Coupang for speed, Costco for bulk/portioning, Daiso for tools/containers)
• Use sensory differentiation
  • texture/aroma/sound as “reasons to talk/share” (a content engine)
• Treat health as a product-design constraint
  • low-sugar/low-spike designs validated via measurement where possible

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Frameworks / playbooks explicitly or implicitly referenced

• “3-value export alignment” (nation / farmers-fishermen / company)
• Meal-prep behavior sustainability model
  • economics + health + time efficiency + pride/social media + “solo-eating” excuse/support
• Mintel foresight operating system
  • 4 data axes (consumer survey + market release tracking + category analyst reports + social listening)
  • 3 product evolution themes:
    • diversification
    • retro reinterpretation
    • multi-sensory experience
• Trend measurement approach
  • big-data profiling + AI “contentability” signals
  • glucose monitoring experiments for “health-measurable” claims
• Solo dining format growth lens
  • one-hand/one-bowl/one-dish as structural design requirements

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Key metrics & KPIs mentioned (from the lecture)

• Export reach: 208 countries
• Meal-format growth (intake frequency / growth rates):
  • rice bowls: +8.2%
  • salad bowls: +22.2%
  • bibimbap: +13.7%
  • sandwiches: +7.0%
  • Korean noodles (cold noodle variants): +4.8%
  • hamburgers (solo-friendly): +9.8% (noted among solo-grab meal growth)
• Convenience/online direction:
  • online food purchasing share projected around ~10%
  • online for processed foods projected up to ~15%
• Food manufacturing financials:
  • operating profit margin around 4.6% (2024) overall (segment dependent)
  • beverage profit margin example ~9.2%
• Industry risk:
  • food manufacturing closures projected: ~7,800 for 2025
• FX/import uncertainty (macro input):
  • cited scenario bounds including 1,430–1,300 won
• Raw cost structure:
  • raw materials typically ~65% overall; 70–80% in some categories

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Concrete examples / case studies cited

• Costco viral recommendation loop
  • recommendation videos generate millions of views and reinforce portioning/meal-prep purchase logic
• Morinaga Dairy “Comfort Sky”
  • zoo-sleep themed comfort design; reportedly achieved ~20 million units and highest brand sales in history
• Traditional-wisdom export reinterpretation
  • traditional ingredients/fermentation/preservation translated into modern mainstream formats, supporting both anxiety relief and sustainability narratives

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Presenters / sources (as mentioned)

• Lyran (host/introducer; “Adaunseo” and “Lyran” noted as opening/MC roles)
• Hong Mun-pyo, CEO, Korea Agro-Fisheries Food Trade Corporation (opening remarks; export strategy framing)
• Park Hyun-young, Director, Lifestyle Change Observatory (big data food culture trends; meal prep; distribution channels)
• Baek Jong-hyun, General Manager / Mintel Korea (Global Hourly Wage Trends in 2026; Mintel methodology + product themes)
• Moon Jeong-hoon, Professor, Seoul National University (Food Vigil Lab / Food Biz Lab; Food Trends 2026)
• Kim Sang-hyo, Researcher, Korean rural economy (current status/outlook; costs, margins, sales, online distribution trends)