Rassvet Starts Operating West Ukraine Badly Hit Zelensky Rushes To Brussels; Russian Nuclear Warning

Summary

Alexander Mercouris argues that the conflict has entered a more dangerous phase, focusing on a reported wave of Russian drone strikes in western Ukraine and mounting military and financial pressures on Kyiv.

Drone strikes and possible Rassvet guidance

Mercouris says hundreds of jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones struck sites in western Ukraine, including energy facilities, warehouses, and a shopping mall. He argues that their range and apparent accuracy may indicate guidance through Russia’s Rassvet satellite network, which he describes as a Starlink analogue.

He also acknowledges other possible explanations, including autonomous optical guidance or terrain-following navigation. A photograph released by Ukraine allegedly showing a Rassvet receiver on a downed drone could support the theory, but he cautions that it is not conclusive and could encourage confirmation bias.

Mercouris interprets the strikes as possible system tests. If his assessment is correct, Russian drones could operate across Ukraine. He presents this as his analysis, not a confirmed finding.

Ukraine’s air defences

Citing a CNN report, Mercouris says Ukraine may have used its last Patriot PAC-3 interceptors during a recent Russian strike. He doubts Ukrainian claims about interception rates and says European countries are unlikely to be able to supply enough replacements.

He predicts further attacks and says that the alleged restoration of some U.S. satellite or Starlink-related support would not, in his view, materially improve Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian missiles.

Zelensky’s Brussels visit and the funding dispute

Mercouris says President Volodymyr Zelensky went to Brussels seeking more money and weapons, as well as progress toward EU membership. He reports that Belgium’s prime minister said funds were running out, while EU governments were divided over additional financing. Some were also asking how previous aid had been spent.

He notes opposition to Ukraine’s EU bid, including concerns about competition for French farmers.

Zelensky and Trump

Mercouris describes relations between Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump as worsening, partly over Zelensky’s public criticism of Trump and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

He says a reported U.S. proposal would have offered Ukraine broader access to the Starshield system in exchange for pausing those attacks. According to Mercouris, Zelensky did not accept the proposal.

Mercouris argues that the refinery strikes have not achieved their stated strategic aims and may have increased Ukraine’s costs, while giving Russia grounds to intensify its attacks.

Front-line developments

Mercouris says reports from the front were limited. He speculates that Dobropillia may have fallen to Russian forces, basing this partly on the Russian Defence Ministry’s lack of comment. He presents this as an inference, not confirmation.

He also says Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi appears to have ended without achieving the objectives attributed to it by Ukrainian supporters. He considers further Ukrainian offensives unlikely in the near term because of approaching wet weather and Russian pressure.

Other developments

Mercouris mentions reported attacks in the Black Sea on vessels linked to Western companies, while noting that Russia had not claimed responsibility. He also refers to continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian rail infrastructure and Kyiv’s critical energy situation.

Kaliningrad warning

Mercouris closes with a Russian Foreign Ministry warning that an armed attack on the Kaliningrad region would bring a devastating response using all means available. He connects the warning to remarks by Baltic officials and reports of Polish planning for possible strikes, and warns that dismissing Russia’s nuclear deterrent would be reckless.

Presenter and contributors

Alexander Mercouris is the presenter. Alex Christoforou is mentioned as a co-host of a separate Duran program but does not appear in this video.