Biotech-Aktien bewerten: Worauf es bei Studiendaten und Kapital ankommt

Summary

The discussion examines how to assess biotech companies when promising clinical results may attract investor interest before the commercial opportunity is clear. Its main themes are clinical evidence, market potential, financing runway, execution risk, and pharmaceutical companies’ need to replenish their drug pipelines through acquisitions.

Personalized cancer therapies and valuation

Moderna and Merck reported positive results for an individually tailored cancer therapy. The interviewee described the findings as a major medical advance that could expand the cancer-treatment market.

The therapy was described as producing up to 50% better results or longer survival. The discussion suggested that successful new treatments may support higher drug prices and expand the overall market, but it did not provide specific pricing or sales estimates.

At the time discussed, the treatment was approved only for adjuvant use in melanoma. More evidence was needed to establish whether it works in other cancers, organs, and treatment settings, including after patients have received other therapies.

According to the subtitles, Moderna’s share price rose almost 177% in one day in US trading following news on August 19, 2026. The interviewee cautioned that the market opportunity—and whether potential drug sales would justify the company’s new market capitalization—remained difficult to assess while broader clinical data were outstanding.

Biotech assessment framework

The portfolio manager highlighted several due-diligence considerations:

• Evaluate the clinical data: Distinguish promising results in one indication from evidence that can be replicated across cancers or patient groups.
• Assess the addressable market: Consider the indication, treatment setting, potential patient population, and whether the therapy improves on existing care.
• Check the financing runway: Determine how long cash reserves are expected to last and whether they will carry the company to its next important clinical milestone. The interview cited examples of six or 18 months.
• Review execution and fundraising prospects: Positive milestone results may help a company raise additional capital. Poor data or weak execution can make funding harder and increase the risk of insolvency.
• Do not treat acquisition interest as protection against clinical failure: A large pharmaceutical company can acquire a drug candidate that later misses its study target.

Capital needs and mergers and acquisitions

The interview cited Novartis’s purchase of US drug developer Avidity for about $12 billion in February, followed by the failure of an important drug candidate to meet its study target.

Pharmaceutical companies continue to pursue acquisitions partly because of patent expirations and the need to replenish their product pipelines. The interview said Novartis faced several expirations beginning in 2030, while the wider industry—with more than $200 billion in sales—also faced patent losses in the coming years.

Developing replacement products internally can take many years, so companies may use acquisitions to fill pipeline gaps and replace revenue from drugs losing patent protection.

Acquisition activity reportedly accelerated around October or November of the prior year, with particularly heavy activity in the first half of 2026—at times, two or three companies per week. The interviewee expected acquisition pressure to continue, while emphasizing that deals do not guarantee successful drugs.

Other potential growth areas and risks

• Aging-related medicine: Cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, and Parkinson’s were cited as areas with substantial unmet medical need. A successful new therapy could open a large market, though existing treatments were described as unsatisfactory in some cases.
• Gene therapy and gene editing: These fields may create new markets, but also face setbacks and continuing development challenges.
• Cardiovascular disease: Lipid-lowering drugs and other cardiovascular treatments may address large markets. Some recent studies had promising results but did not succeed, illustrating the risks of clinical development.
• Liquid biopsies: Blood-based tests may help detect tumors earlier and monitor cancer treatment. The discussion described possible checks every six to 12 months to identify recurrence and inform a change in therapy.

Companies, sectors, and instruments mentioned

Companies: Moderna, Merck, Novartis, and Avidity.

Common ticker identifiers (not spoken in the subtitles): Moderna (MRNA); Merck & Co. (MRK, assuming the US company); Novartis (NVS); Avidity Biosciences (RNA).

Sectors and areas: Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, cancer therapies, gene therapy and editing, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s treatments, cardiovascular drugs, and liquid biopsies.

No bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrency were discussed.

Disclosure and sources

The video’s closing disclaimer says that investments involve risk and that the content does not constitute investment advice; it is for product information only.

Presenters/sources: Martin Kerscher, interviewer; Dr. Noushin Irani, Senior Portfolio Manager of DWS ESG Biotech. The discussion was published by comdirect.