Attacking Israel Worked for Democrats. Why not for Vance? Jonathan Tobin/Talkline With Zev Brenner

Summary

Zev Brenner interviewed Jonathan Tobin, editor-in-chief of JNS and a Newsweek columnist, about Tobin’s argument that anti-Israel campaigning may help candidates in Democratic politics but is unlikely to benefit J.D. Vance in a Republican presidential primary.

Tobin argued that Vance is trying to explain recent Republican losses by blaming the Iran war and calling for a change in the U.S.–Israel relationship. In Tobin’s view, this risks alienating Republican voters: he said anti-Israel candidates have gained ground in Democratic primaries, while Republican primary voters have generally favored pro-Israel candidates. He also criticized Vance’s past claim to be neutral in disputes over antisemitism within the conservative movement, saying antisemitism should not be treated as a matter for political compromise.

On the Iran conflict, Tobin said the war’s unpopularity may stem partly from its lack of a decisive outcome, rather than opposition to military action itself. He portrayed Vance as favoring a ceasefire and negotiations that, in his view, resemble the Obama-Biden approach and could amount to appeasement. Tobin said Trump’s next steps were uncertain, but argued that Trump would not want to leave Iran unchallenged. He also questioned a report, raised by Brenner, claiming more than $15 billion in damage to U.S. facilities in the Middle East, saying he was not convinced by the figure.

A caller argued that the election was mainly a referendum on Trump and that many Democratic winners were moderates rather than democratic socialists. Tobin agreed that midterms typically serve as a referendum on the administration and cited tariffs and their economic effects as an important source of declining support. He disputed the idea that the Democratic Party remains broadly moderate, arguing that its center has moved left and that anti-Israel views have spread beyond coastal states. He warned that pro-Israel Democrats could face increasing difficulty in the party, while saying the Republican Party’s internal debate over Israel was still unsettled.

The discussion also considered the 2028 presidential race. Tobin said Vance’s position may have weakened, though midterm results do not determine the next presidential election. He speculated that a left-wing Democrat could win the party’s nomination and argued that a Democratic victory could weaken the U.S.–Israel alliance. He considered Josh Shapiro more favorable to Israel than many potential Democratic contenders, but doubted the party would nominate someone like him.

Tobin said a Jewish candidate could theoretically become president, but argued that a pro-Israel candidate would face a difficult path in today’s Democratic Party. In response to a question about Jewish voters supporting candidates who criticize Israel, he attributed some of that support to strong partisan identity and to voters with limited connection to Jewish religious or communal life. He said Jewish voters with stronger communal ties might vote differently.

Brenner and Tobin also discussed planned boycotts of Jewish businesses in Philadelphia, which Tobin characterized as antisemitic. Tobin said he expected to cover the event. He concluded that Republicans remain more supportive of Israel than Democrats, while cautioning that attitudes—particularly among younger voters—are changing.

Presenters and contributors

• Zev Brenner — host
• Jonathan Tobin — guest
• Stan Fanger — caller