Netanyahu changed Israel fundamentally, the new govt will be a coalition excluding Arab parties

Summary

The commentary argues that Benjamin Netanyahu has reshaped Israeli politics and remains well positioned to form a government, despite not having an outright majority. The speaker says the likely coalition arithmetic now excludes Arab parties: although they hold a substantial bloc of seats, Jewish parties are unwilling to partner with them, in part because they will not describe Hamas as a terrorist organization. The result, the commentary argues, is that Arab voters can win representation but have little influence over who governs.

The speaker attributes Netanyahu’s resilience chiefly to Israelis’ overriding concern about security. The October 7, 2023, attacks are presented as a profound national trauma that strengthened support for the wars that followed and blunted opposition to Netanyahu. In elections, voters may remain divided on many issues, but the question of whom they trust to protect them can outweigh dissatisfaction with the incumbent. The commentary compares this with Donald Trump’s success in appealing to voters through security, immigration, and identity issues, even amid strong opposition to him.

The commentary also traces the decline of Israel’s once-dominant Labor left. Labor governed from the state’s founding until 1977 and returned briefly in later years, but its “land for peace” approach lost public support amid Palestinian attacks, failed negotiations, and the second Intifada. The assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and the failure of the Oslo process further damaged the cause of peace-oriented politics. The speaker adds that Palestinian nationalism has shifted away from its earlier secular and socialist character toward Islamist politics, with Iran wielding influence through allied groups.

Finally, the speaker draws a lesson about minority representation in diverse democracies: proportional representation can secure seats, but seats alone do not guarantee political power. Minorities, the commentary argues, need to build alliances with acceptable mainstream partners and make compromises; otherwise, they risk being represented but politically isolated. The comparison with India is offered as a warning about the limits of representation without coalition-building.

Presenter/contributor: Shekhar Gupta.