Status Update on the Persian Gulf || Peter Zeihan

Summary

Peter Zeihan discusses the current state of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz amid continuing, intermittent violations of a peace arrangement between Iran and the United States. He argues the situation is economically and strategically damaging and that the agreement is heavily favorable to Iran.

Key points he raises include:

• Strait of Hormuz effectively diverged by side: Zeihan says both parties have agreed “to disagree” for now, resulting in the practical outcome that the strait is open for American shipping but closed for Iranian shipping, slowing overall maritime traffic.
• Very slow tanker movement: He estimates that in the past week, only about ~20 tankers per day have been leaving, gradually draining stranded vessels inside the Persian Gulf.
• Substantial but partial oil release already occurred: Zeihan claims roughly 35 million barrels of crude may have been able to get out during the standoff’s period.
• Some Gulf states are restarting exports, but unevenly:
  • Saudi Arabia shows the most progress, with multiple tankers loading successfully. This is helped by a bypass pipeline reportedly expanded above normal capacity, carrying most exports via the Red Sea.
  • UAE continues using Fujairah port (outside the Strait of Hormuz), suggesting limited direct benefit from reopening the Persian Gulf.
  • Qatar is a question mark; Kuwait and Iraq have little clear information or appear not to be moving much.
• Not “back to normal”: Zeihan contrasts current traffic with pre-war levels. Before the conflict, 100–150 ships per way per day transited; now, he says fewer than 15 ships transit into the Persian Gulf, and only about half are tankers.
• Iran is the only country moving through the strait without restriction: He emphasizes that, under the current arrangement, Iran can send ships back and forth, highlighting what he calls the deal’s lopsidedness.
• Iran’s planned toll/fees framework: Zeihan says Iran is openly discussing charging fees/tolls for passage, and that even Oman is talking about coordinating with Iran to implement this—implying a future cost burden on non-Iranians using the waterway.
• Potential US Navy enforcement, but major consequences remain: He notes the arrangement is supposedly enforced by the US Navy, yet still describes the situation as an ongoing catastrophic economic and strategic event, saying regional oil production may not return to full capacity this year.

Presenters / contributors

• Peter Zeihan (L. Peter Zeihan)