Gold & Silver Price Crash: Buying Opportunity or More Downside? | Kunal Shah

Key Takeaways

• Uncertainty and risk: Kishore Naran said geopolitical conflict, crude-oil pressures, and changing interest-rate expectations have made confidence across asset classes unusually low and risk premiums high. He viewed this as a greater challenge for short-term traders than for investors with an 18–24-month horizon.
• Bonds: Naran saw opportunities in bonds, including Indian government securities (G-secs), saying yields were near highs and bond prices near decade lows. Investors able to hold to maturity could consider them, though short-term market volatility remains.
• Equities: Naran said some equity sectors offered favourable valuations but did not name specific sectors or stocks. He cautioned against assuming the worst is over, while noting that history has rewarded long-term investors who bought during difficult periods.
• Commodities: Kunal Shah described commodities as being in a secular bull market, despite the recent pullback. He attributed near-term selling pressure to a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields, but argued that the broader debt and liquidity backdrop could limit how far interest rates rise. He viewed the correction as an opportunity to reallocate toward commodities.

Gold Outlook

• Naran expected gold to trade around US$4,100–US$4,200 over roughly the next six months, with US$3,800 a possible downside level if rates rose by 25 basis points.
• For Indian prices, he cited roughly ₹1.32–₹1.35 lakh as a potential downside or buying area this year; the exact figures in the subtitles are unclear. He said gold could reach ₹2 lakh over the next 18 months in a strong bull-case scenario.
• Naran argued that further rate hikes may be an inappropriate response to inflation driven by external supply shocks and suggested policy could eventually shift toward other measures.

Silver Outlook

• Shah said silver’s sharp rise to about ₹4.2 lakh was followed by a rapid correction. He characterised the move as a bubble bursting after prices became overstretched.
• Solar demand, previously a major driver of silver consumption, was said to be down about 20–22% in 2026. However, Shah said supply had not meaningfully increased from either primary or secondary sources, even after two years of high prices, leaving the market relatively tight.
• He put silver’s downside floor at around US$55–US$56, compared with roughly US$58 at the time of the programme, and said he saw limited further downside from that level.
• As a possible future demand driver, Shah cited Samsung’s battery development and BMW’s testing. He said commercial rollout was expected in Q4 2027, with a claimed 950 km range per charge and fire-resistant properties. He expected the technology could eventually boost silver demand; these were expectations, not established outcomes.

Market Context and Key Figures

• Shah highlighted an unusual combination of rising interest rates and reported US bond-market liquidity injections of about US$6 billion per day, or around US$120 billion over 20 days.
• He cited US debt of roughly US$40 trillion, rising by US$1.5–$2 trillion a year, with interest costs of about US$1–$1.25 trillion. His argument was that debt-servicing costs and economic strain would constrain how far rates could rise.
• He compared US 30-year mortgage rates of about 1.7% in 2022 with roughly 7.6% at the time, warning that a further 100-basis-point rise could severely damage the housing market. Some wording in the subtitles is unclear.
• Japan was also cited as beginning to raise interest rates after roughly 30 years of little movement.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• Gold, silver, aluminium, and commodities broadly
• Bonds, including Indian G-secs
• Equities (no specific sectors, companies, or tickers named)
• The US dollar, US Treasury and bond markets, and interest rates
• Solar demand and battery technology as factors affecting silver

Disclosures and Cautions

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• Several price references and phrases are garbled by auto-captioning. Indian gold price levels and parts of the interest-rate discussion should be treated as approximate.
• The speakers’ commodity and gold views are forecasts, not guarantees. Naran also stressed uncertainty, and Shah’s silver-demand outlook depends partly on future battery commercialisation.

Presenters and sources: The programme was hosted on CNBC Awaaz / Network18; the host’s name is unclear in the subtitles. The finance guests were Kishore Naran (Motilal Oswal) and Kunal Shah (Nirmal Bang). Chef Samil appeared in the later, non-financial segment.