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Macro / Turkey FX & tourism-led FX inflows

• Tourism revenue: last year $65B (presented as a major FX source supporting the Central Bank).
• June tourist arrivals: -4% YoY, 5.5M tourists.
• Q2 tourism revenue: -2.6% YoY to $15.865B.
• Editorial outlook: tourism revenue could re-approach ~$65B for the year, with the expectation that a significant share supports FX management via the Central Bank.

FX flows, carry trades, and “no devaluation” claim

• Carry traders / short-term foreign investors: previously fell during wartime from ~$60B to as low as $33B, then increased again.
• Bloomberg HT balance: $54.9B (as stated).
• Claim mentioned: “No devaluation in Turkey until the election” (presenter’s view).
• Taxes note: institutional foreign investors are alleged not to pay taxes on interest in Turkey (advantage mentioned).

Interest rates, deposit yields, and money-market fund math

Deposit rates and examples cited

• Bank deposit rates: stated as hovering above 40% (presenter mentions roughly ~41–42%, with references like 40.25% and 42–43%; some figures garbled).
• Examples mentioned:
  • İş Bankası share price: 40.50
  • Yapı Kredi Bank: 40.75
  • Akbank: 41.5
  • Tarım Kredi (Agriculture): 41%
  • Halkbank: 41.5
  • Vakıf Bank: monthly return ~41%
• Caution: demand deposit structures may result in investors earning less than the advertised stated rate by the end of the term.

Money-market funds (withholding tax)

• Gross monthly returns: ~4% (best) and ~3.5% (average/typical).
• Withholding tax: 17.5%.
• Net monthly after-tax examples:
  • From 4% gross → ~3.3% net
  • From 3.5% gross → ~2.8% net

Inflation linkage / timing

• Inflation data expected beginning of next week (ENAG / TÜİK referenced).
• Poll expectation: around ~1.90% (Bloomberg HT poll example 1.87%).
• Seasonality caution: if inflation rises again, interest-rate calculations will be revisited in September.
  • Presenter cites earlier monthly inflation >5% and expects September inflation to often rise (back-to-school effect).

Mutual funds / hedge funds regulation & equity fund drawdowns

• Presenter referenced outflows from some hedge funds and noted “another regulation” expected from Capital Markets Board (SPK).
• Specific fund (VPS): “Vega’s portfolio … stock free fund” (title garbled).
  • Performance: lost >30% since last month, with major damage across May–July.
  • Reason given: the fund effectively behaves like an equity fund with concentrated holdings.

Large holdings and portfolio impact

• Ülker Bisküvi: described as >30% holding inside the fund (also mentions “Tezo Paper” >10% but unclear; emphasis on Ülker).
• Ülker Bisküvi stock: -13.5% over the last month.
• Conclusion: as Ülker drops, other holdings in the portfolio also decline, driving fund losses.

Domestic automotive tax angle

• Minimum fixed Special Consumption Tax (ÖTV): 100,000 TL (as stated).
• Presenter view: this won’t affect prices now because the current minimum auto tax is already above that.
  • Autonomous vehicle price floor referenced: ~1.3M TL.

Company financials: Tofaş / Stellantis context

• Tofaş results: presenter says profits and turnover improved significantly.
• Claims:
  • Profit increased by ~200% (last year vs prior year).
  • Turnover also increased vs the same period.
• Context mentioned:
  • Earlier production disruptions (end of “Dobla” and Aegean-related production).
  • Mention of merger with Stellantis; permit eventually granted after competition authority concerns.
  • Interpretation: Tofaş may shift from local production toward an importing/distribution model for brands like Citroën and Peugeot.

Precious metals: gold, inflation expectations, Fed timeline

Gold trend and month performance

• Presenter says gold “ending the month positive” with +0.50% for the month.
• Context:
  • Gold negative during war months.
  • Last positive territory was February.
  • Decline began March; restrictive period referenced for July.
• August path linked to US inflation and Fed data.

Fed policy expectation

• View stated: the Fed “will not raise rates in September”.
• Upcoming catalyst: Non-farm payrolls next Friday.
• Presenter notes the Fed gave no recent guidance, tied to new Fed chairman’s philosophy (no specific forward guidance).

Prices and spreads (as stated)

• Silver: -2.60% today to $57.40
• Gold: ~ -1.5% to $40.45/oz (figure appears inconsistent with typical gold levels—likely subtitle/recognition error, but treated as stated)
• Turkey/gold domestic discount (spread):
  • Typical domestic premium cited: $3,000–$4,000.
  • “Recently dropped below $300,” then presenter says it “dropped below $200” today.
  • Interpretation: domestic gold demand near standstill; bank buy/sell spreads narrowed to stimulate demand.
• Bank spreads: presenter claims digital banks have among the best spreads: <0.50% (specific names garbled: “Support bank and global hardness” — unclear; referenced in the context of “Dijital bankalar”).
• Linkage noted: stronger dollar + yields pressured metals; renewed selling pressure on gold and silver with firmer USD.

US equities / tech earnings momentum

• US markets: “in positive territory,” with tech continuing gains.

Earnings timeline / key moves (August catalyst)

• Presenter suggests profit-taking from June/July may have ended.
• Notable references:
  • Microsoft: stock rose 17% after earnings (single-day record claimed).
  • Amazon: earnings “very well received”; stock up after report (exact % not stated).
  • Apple: sales missed expectations due to chip supply shortage, despite steady iPhone demand; investors punished.
• AI theme: presenter says AI wave benefits other companies (including chip makers).

Dates mentioned and targets

• Nvidia: final act on August 26
• Palantir: earnings “next week”
• SpaceX: earnings “next week”
• SpaceX price shock and targets:
  • “Went from $225 down to ~$115”
  • Still high target prices: Morgan Stanley $300 mentioned
  • Short positions nearing record levels before Tuesday’s earnings (as stated)

Turkey stock market: BIST rebound & sector rotation

• BIST: rose after a 7-day losing streak lasting 6 days (as described), supported by Bank of America (BofA).
• Mechanism described: BofA started buying after 15:30, and the market closed up +1.24% from a low near 13,216 toward a high around 13,458.

Levels mentioned

• Start: around 13,910 (plus early)
• Low: 13,216
• High: 13,458
• Resistance: 13,560 and 13,650

Sector/index moves

• Bank index (8989): +2.89%
• Industry: +0.59%
• Volume: ~240B TL
• Positives mentioned: banks, transportation, petrochemicals (and overlaps with holding/bank subsidiaries).
• Negatives mentioned: electricity, communications, food.

High-volume / inflow stocks (mentioned)

• Yapı Kredi Bankası, İş Bankası (garbled as “İşçe”), Koç Holding, Pegasus, Meten (referred to as MEN / Metgün Enerji).

MEN (Metgün Enerji) liquidity dynamic (as described)

• Despite inflow, it hit the lowest point due to only one buyer while others sold; price fell (order-book / liquidity explanation).

Cross-trade / acquisitions mentioned (bank-broker flows)

• “Akyatırım acquired Yapı Kredi Bankası, Türk Hava Yolları, Akbank, Sabancı Holding”
• “İş Yatırım sold Turkish Airlines (E7), Akbank İşçe, Odin”
• Presenter also lists other net flows; net surplus ~3.9B TL for top transactions (as stated).

Outlook

• Unless negative weekend developments: “slightly bullish opening on Monday” driven by momentum.

Tickers / instruments explicitly mentioned

Turkey / stocks

• İş Bankası, Yapı Kredi Bankası, Akbank, Halkbank, Vakıf Bank
• Tofaş (company name; ticker not provided)
• Ülker Bisküvi, Koç Holding, Pegasus
• Metgün Enerji (MEN)
• Türk Hava Yolları (THY), Sabancı Holding
• Turk Telekom

US stocks (earnings references)

• Amazon, Microsoft, Apple
• Nvidia, Palantir
• SpaceX (private; mentioned as a “stock/asset” reference)
• Morgan Stanley (used for analyst target)

Index / sectors / metals / macro

• “8989 bank index”; BIST / Istanbul Stock Exchange (general)
• Gold, Silver
• TL, Euro, USD

Methodology / frameworks mentioned

Money-market fund net return

• Framework implied:
  • Start with gross monthly return (e.g., 4%, 3.5%)
  • Subtract 17.5% withholding tax
  • Match to stated net monthly returns (about ~3.3% and ~2.8%)

Inflation-rate reset approach

• Use upcoming inflation data to infer/recalculate the expected interest-rate environment.
• Revisit again in September, based on expected seasonal inflation rise.

Key numbers & timelines recap

• Tourism
  • Annual baseline: $65B
  • June arrivals: -4% YoY, 5.5M
  • Q2 tourism revenue: -2.6% YoY to $15.865B
• Carry / reserves
  • Carry: ~$60B → $33B → $54.9B (balance figure cited)
• Rates / returns
  • Deposit range: ~40–42%
  • Money-market fund net: ~2.8% to ~3.3% per month after 17.5% tax
• Inflation / calendar
  • Poll expectation: ~1.90%
  • Check again in September
• Metals & Fed
  • Non-farm payrolls: next Friday
  • Fed view: no September rate hike
  • Gold month: +0.50%
  • Domestic gold spread narrowing to <$200 (as stated)
• US tech
  • Microsoft: +17% (one day)
  • Nvidia: Aug 26
  • Palantir: next week
  • SpaceX: next week; price $225 → ~$115; target $300
• Turkey equities
  • BIST close: +1.24%
  • Resistance: 13,560 / 13,650
  • Volume: ~240B TL
  • Bank index: +2.89%

Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was present in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter: “Uncle Ziya” (with Germany reference).
• Sources/media referenced: Bloomberg HT, SPK (Capital Markets Board), ENAG, TÜİK, Bank of America (BofA), Morgan Stanley.