How to trade crypto with POC and EMAs

Strategy Overview

The presenter outlines a work-in-progress crypto trading framework, tested primarily on Solana (SOL) using the 1-hour chart. It combines the following tools and concepts:

• Volume Profile Point of Control (POC): Mark POCs from recent higher-timeframe and local swing highs and lows. Treat them as potential support or resistance, and watch for reactions, breakouts, and retests.
• 200-period EMA: Use as an additional potential reaction level, especially when it is sloped and aligned with the trend. The presenter cautions against relying on it alone.
• Range rebalancing: After a strong directional move leaves a range unrebalanced, consider a return to that range as a potential take-profit target.
• Fair value gaps (FVGs): Use them as possible targets or as a caution when price is moving toward an opposing imbalance. The presenter suggests tagging trades as FVG-positive or FVG-negative to assess their effect.

Entry Models

1. Protected retest: When a POC and the 200 EMA are close together, enter at the retest of the first level and place the stop beyond the second.
2. Unprotected retest: When only one key level is present, wait for a reaction or confirmation before entering, then place the stop beyond the retest. A more aggressive limit entry may be considered if prior structure or an FVG offers a place to protect the stop.
3. Key-level reclaim: If price breaks through a key level and then strongly reclaims it, enter on the reclaim and use a recent swing point for the stop.

Targets and Trade Management

• Generally aim for at least 2R (reward relative to initial risk).
• Prefer a range-rebalance target when it offers at least 2R; otherwise, look for continuation or an untapped FVG.
• Consider moving the stop to break even after price travels roughly halfway to the take-profit target.
• For entry models 2 and 3, consider closing if price reaches the 200 EMA before the target, as it may act as resistance.
• Second attempts after an initially failed retest may be worth testing, though the presenter says more data is needed.

Market Context and Cautions

The presenter favors the 1-hour timeframe, noting that lower-timeframe crypto trading has often led to being stopped out by wicks. They focus mainly on the New York session and may also trade London, while recommending avoiding low-activity late-Asia periods where possible.

Other cautions include:

• Avoid trading while price is choppy or consolidating between nearby POCs and/or the EMA. Look for a clean breakout and retest.
• Avoid entering just before major U.S. releases such as CPI or FOMC. The presenter says holding an already-protected trade through news may be acceptable, but advises against opening a trade during the event.
• Use a low-spread crypto exchange or platform; the presenter warns that spreads on MetaTrader may be too wide.
• Track opposing FVGs with trade tags, since they may affect results.

Backtest Results Reported

• Approximately 30 trades across the testing sessions; the presenter later cites 29 trades in one breakdown.
• Reported win rate: about 64%, including some break-even trades. Trades generally targeted 2R or more.
• One roughly two-month test period reportedly produced about 11.5R, and another roughly two-month period about 20R.
• Reported profit factor: 4.74. The presenter calls this potentially overfit and expects it may fall after earlier trades are audited.
• Most trades and profits reportedly came during New York hours, but the sample is too small for firm conclusions about session or day-of-week performance.
• Trade frequency was relatively low. Testing multiple crypto assets was suggested to find setups when one asset is consolidating or has no nearby key levels.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• Solana (SOL): Primary asset used for the demonstration and testing.
• Newly available on the platform, as named in the subtitles: Dogecoin (DOGE), Toncoin (TON), Litecoin (LTC), Chainlink (LINK), Uniswap (UNI), TRON (TRX), BNB, and Avalanche (AVAX), along with other unspecified crypto assets.
• Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH): Mentioned as assets used by other traders.
• Indicators and tools: 200 EMA, Volume Profile/POC, and fair value gaps.

Disclosures

The presenter says this strategy has not been tested as extensively as their previously developed 15-minute strategy. They describe it as promising but still a work in progress, encourage viewers to use it as a framework, adapt it, and test it themselves, and warn that the early results may be overfit. No explicit “not financial advice” wording appears in the subtitles.

Presenter/source: FX Replay video presenter, who references other traders RektProof, Tai from PlayBit, and TraderKain as sources of ideas or concepts.