Video summary

The Best Performing Assets AFTER The FED HIKES Rates!

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (post–Fed-hike market view)

Macro / policy expectations (explicit probabilities)

  • The Fed policy rate has already been lifted to 4% (upper end of the referenced target range).
  • Rate-hike odds discussed for later 2024–2026:
    • October meeting: ~50/50 chance of another increase
    • December meeting:
      • 50% chance of an increase
      • 38% chance of a double increase
      • This implies roughly 88–89% probability of at least an increase (per speaker)
  • Belief that rates stay steady into the meeting before midterms
  • “Very high chance” of another increase in 2026 (at least toward 4.4–4.5% referenced)
  • Into 2027: expectations become “choppier”

Market context used for “best performing assets”

  • The day after the announcement is framed as initially volatile.
  • High-impact news (rate decision) typically leads to 24–48 hours of pricing adjustment.
  • Uses chart structure concepts around “50% levels” (buying strength above vs weakness below), plus cycle analogies.

Best-performing / constructive assets (as argued)

1) S&P 500 (index)

  • Reacted “relatively well,” closing higher with focus near 7,600–7,700 (speaker cites ~7,600ish and later references ~7,780).
  • Technical setup:
    • Expects further upside / possible new all-time high “sooner rather than later.”
    • Wants confirmation via a break above ~7,750–7,800.
    • Caution: if price falls below ~7,580, the constructive structure could fail (speaker would address downside if that happens).
  • Performance/structure inference:
    • Professionals appear to be buying the close.
    • Early signs of continued rally (“several 4 hours in”).

2) NASDAQ (index)

  • Considered the “#2 asset” with constructive structure.
  • Key levels mentioned:
    • Testing highs around 29,800–29,850
    • Next upside interest near 30,000
    • Short-term invalidation: break of lows at 28,770
    • Deeper reference: 50% around ~27,000 (farther away)
  • Logic:
    • NASDAQ held the 50% overall when other moves were weaker.
    • Buying of lows observed.

3) Oil (crude)

  • “Not too bad” on the announcement day.
  • Characterized as building strength over weeks.
  • Trend length:
    • Pullbacks after a rise from a low on Aug 26 to higher levels over about 3 weeks
  • Near-term technical zones:
    • Possible retests around mid-90s (speaker cites ~96, 95, 97)
    • If pullbacks hold, expects “higher low” formation then continuation higher.
  • Portfolio/market advice framing:
    • Oil pullbacks may be opportunities to “reload the tank” for further moves (not “end of world” despite cost concerns).

4) Bitcoin

  • “Traded okay” but not the strongest move.
  • Would have preferred strength above ~76,500 (speaker text appears as “above $765,000,” likely a transcription error; context suggests ~$76.5k).
  • Key confirmation levels:
    • Short-term 50% around 78,600
    • Tops around 79,700
  • Expectation:
    • Likely consolidation, then attempt higher if it breaks above the short-term 50% level.

5) “Soft commodities” / agriculture and related inputs

  • Speaker claims some agricultural/food-linked commodities have “been doing very well” and/or held up better despite the Fed event.
  • Tickers/instruments mentioned (with rough level info):
    • Soybeans (strong)
    • Corn: from roughly ~370–380 up to ~530
    • Sugar: “on a good tear”
    • Coffee: down slightly after a huge run
    • Cotton: up and holding gains
    • Cocoa: strong rebound after a “mega bull market” + major correction
  • Drivers suggested:
    • El Niño (drought risk mentioned)
    • Higher oil prices and inflation pass-through to food retail costs

Weak / caution assets

1) Gold

  • Characterized as a “not great day”:
    • Rallied, then “crashed,” closing at the lowest close in the entire move
    • High volume on the move + “low close” noted (bearish read)
  • Technical levels:
    • Needs to close above its 50% area around ~4,520
    • Bearish structure includes a “lower swing high” rejection
  • Macro confirmation condition:
    • Wants evidence that the broader range ~3,900–4,800 is accumulation
    • If it breaks down from ~3,950 low → “distribution” (worse)
  • Time horizon caution:
    • Emphasizes patience; buying too early risks long drawdowns
    • References past regimes where it took many years to recover

2) Silver

  • Also described as “not great” (the day didn’t break major lows).
  • Key level:
    • Needs a break above ~$72 for “major strength”
  • Similar macro sensitivity to dollar/yields implied.

3) US Dollar

  • Rated “not looking too bad,” around 100, strengthening over several days.
  • Notes:
    • Dollar strength can cap gold/silver when those metals are not in a strong demand-driven uptrend
    • Speaker frames the dollar as in a long range similar to ~2015 levels (about 11 years in a similar price regime)
  • Cross-currency mentions:
    • Euro and GBP down on USD strength
    • USD strengthened vs Swiss franc and yen, but off highs

4) Bonds / yields (risk signal)

  • Biggest caution signal: yields
  • Observations:
    • Speaker expects yields might “slow” after the hike
    • If yields don’t slow, it’s concerning (implies bond market wants higher rates)
    • Notes:
      • 10-year bond yield: rallied slightly, then “came crashing down,” closing at lows
      • 30-year bond: trending down since 2020, with reference to earlier peak around March 2020
  • Level cited:
    • 30-year seems headed toward a “lower swing high test” near ~108, which could resolve downside if it fails

Methodology / framework used (step-by-step concepts)

  • Post-Fed “best assets” ranking based on:
    • Short-term chart structure after high-impact news (rate announcement)
    • 50% level logic:
      • Holding above the 50% area = stronger probability of upside
      • Breakdown and retest from underneath = “weak” condition
    • Look for:
      • Late-day strength / “professionals buying the close”
      • Breaks above specified resistance levels for confirmation
      • Break of lows/invalidation levels to mark failure
  • Uses historical cycle analogies:
    • “30-year cycle” comparison to 1996 (dot-com era) and AI euphoria similarities
    • Expects potential breakout/testing around September–October (timing emphasis for indices)
  • Emphasizes macro confirmation before taking aggressive positions in metals:
    • Wait for confirmation that gold’s range is accumulation, not distribution

Explicit recommendations / positioning cues (qualitative)

  • Constructive / bullish bias (conditional):
    • S&P 500: positive structure; needs confirmation above ~7,780
    • NASDAQ: constructive; test ~29,800–29,850 and possibly 30,000; invalidation ~28,770
    • Oil: pullbacks may be constructive to reload; may later consolidate then break out
    • Bitcoin: likely consolidation; break above ~78,600 would strengthen the case
  • Caution / patience:
    • Gold & Silver: “work to do,” wait for accumulation evidence and specific breakout/close levels
    • Bonds/yields: if yields don’t slow, market risk increases

Key instruments/tickers mentioned

  • Indices: S&P 500, NASDAQ
  • Metals: Gold, Silver
  • Crypto: Bitcoin
  • Energy/commodities: Oil (crude), Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Cocoa
  • Rates / macro: US Dollar index/USD (level ~100), 10-year and 30-year bond yields/bonds
  • No specific individual equities/ETFs are named in the subtitles.

Disclosures

  • A clear “not financial advice” disclaimer is not present in the provided subtitles (at least none is explicit).

Presenters / sources

  • Presenter: Jason Pazino (tiainvestor.com)
  • Mentioned third-party source (probabilities/comment context): Walsh (referenced as “according to Walsh”)
  • Video brand: TIA Pro (membership/service referenced)

Original video