1111: Market Score's Most Interesting Projections

Summary of “1111: Market Score’s Most Interesting Projections” (Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast)

The host, JJ Zachariason, explains the Market Score metric and then counts down his 10 most interesting player projections (from 10 to 1). He uses Market Score’s historical comp-based weighted points-per-game approach rather than relying on ADP alone.

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Market Score overview

• Market Score is a 0–100 rating built from a player’s ADP plus previous-season inputs, designed to be more predictive than ADP by incorporating market value.
• The host treats Market Score as one more decision tool, not a “blind truth.”
• A key component is comps:
  • For each player, Market Score finds the most similar historical players.
  • It estimates outcomes using a weighted PPR points-per-game average from those comps.
  • Methodology includes removing the final week of seasons for comps.

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Countdown: 10 most interesting projections

#10 (Ranking mention during intro section)

• The host emphasizes the logic of comps and weighted PPR outcomes, arguing that specific projections can be more useful than generic consensus.
• He frames Market Score as largely a median projection tool (not explicitly focused on floor vs. ceiling).

#9: Brian Thomas & Parker Washington (Jacksonville WRs)

• Market Score prefers Brian Thomas more than Parker Washington, largely due to ADP differences.
• Even so, the host prefers Washington as a value target in managed leagues because his ADP is lower on some platforms.
• Comp result framing:
  • Thomas: about WR20
  • Washington: about WR39
• The host expects the real outcomes could be closer, but values Washington more due to price and potential carryover from efficiency.

#8: Tyler Shuck (QB)

• Market Score has Shuck at QB15 (while some platforms rank him higher or lower).
• The host is bullish because:
  • second-year QBs often outperform ADP,
  • Shuck finished strongly over his last six games,
  • he adds athletic upside,
  • comps include strong year-two/ceiling examples, including:
    • a year-two comp to Carson Wentz (2017),
    • a high-upside Patrick Mahomes (2018) season as a lower-down comp.
• Host takeaway: a late-round option with more excitement than the model suggests.

#7: Quintez Judkins (RB32)

• Market Score’s raw rating suggests RB22, but comp-based projections imply around RB32, making the gap feel harsher than the raw score.
• Concerns raised:
  • Browns offensive line issues last year,
  • pass-catching question marks (low route participation),
  • expected role split based on Todd Monken’s history (the host expects more pass-catching demand from Dylan Sampson).
• Despite “scary” comps (many top comps under 10 PPR points per game), the host says he’s not ready to fade Judkins because:
  • the talent profile still exists,
  • consensus may not fully reflect his situation.

#6: RJ Harvey (RB15 projection)

• A major “surprising” pick: earlier in the offseason the host called Harvey a clear sell due to rushing-profile and situation concerns.
• Now he argues for market overcorrection:
  • Harvey is being priced lower (late drafts, often around/after pick ~100 on some sites),
  • the analysis shifts more toward ceiling than early-down comparisons.
• Comp-based upside: multiple comps suggest outcomes 16+ PPR points per game.
• Host conclusion: at this price, the downside risk is less damaging and the upside is more attractive.

#5: Mike Evans (projection concern)

• Market Score “hates” Evans more than the host personally does.
• Comp-list projection: about WR41.
• The host isn’t calling Evans a fade and does like the fit (Shanahan system + touchdown upside), but the comp-based lens flags:
  • limited comps above high PPR marks,
  • negative context from prior-year efficiency issues (e.g., yards per route run).
• Takeaway: the model suggests Evans is in a worse statistical lane than the host’s personal ranking, driven by age, competition, and recent performance metrics.

#4: Irv Smith Jr. (TE projection shock)

• The host is surprised Irv Smith Jr. is viewed as nearly an afterthought after a 49-catch rookie season with 664 yards and 3 TDs.
• Market Score projection: about TE14.
• Comp notes:
  • One top comp feels like a lower-ceiling outcome: Ladarius Green (2014).
  • There are also meaningful upside comps, including George Kittle (2018, second year) where Kittle scored 15+ PPR.
• Host stance: TE variance is real, but people may be undervaluing Irv Smith Jr. for dart-throw upside.

#3: CeeDee Lamb vs. George Pickens (value comparison)

• Market Score ranks Pickens ahead of Lamb by a small margin based on comp projections:
  • Lamb: Market Score 72
  • Pickens: Market Score 65
  • Projection difference: ~0.7 PPR points per game
• The host still ranks Lamb ahead, but interprets Market Score’s result as a difference in comp floor:
  • Lamb’s floor is dragged down by a comp like Jordy Nelson (2020? year-10) with ~9.2 PPR.
  • Pickens’s worst comp is still around Dez Bryant (~12.1 PPR), while Lamb has multiple comps below that level.
• Host conclusion: Pickens may be better value due to a safer floor relative to cost, even if Lamb ranks higher.

#2: Emeka Egbuka (late WR value + alpha upside)

• The host is higher on Egbuka than some mainstream best-ball platforms:
  • ESPN: WR19
  • Yahoo: WR23
  • Host: WR16
  • Market share projection: WR15
• Comp list is described as especially strong:
  • most comps exceed 15 PPR,
  • worst comp examples are relatively modest (e.g., DJ Chark, year three ~12 PPR; Amari Cooper (2015) ~13.9 PPR).
• Host framing: Egbuka may be a player where market/league type matters, with a profile suggesting a high likelihood of high-end WR production.

#1: Jackson Dart (QB upside at manageable cost)

• Market Score’s top “most interesting” projection is Jackson Dart.
• The host emphasizes that Dart being a QB1 isn’t the whole point—rather, his comps suggest an elite ceiling.
• Comp strength:
  • top similarity doesn’t reach “perfect matches” (no comp similarity above 80%),
  • but the results are driven by comps like:
    • Lamar Jackson (2019) (MVP-level fantasy year),
    • plus other elite rushing/production trajectories similar to:
      • Josh Allen (year 3),
      • Kyler Murray (year 2).
• Main downside caveats:
  • coaching/long-term ambiguity could reduce rushing usage,
  • durability/roster-context concerns (e.g., Malik Nabers injury status),
  • a rare “bad comp” exists (Nick Foles early), tied to regression effects the market hadn’t accounted for back then.
• Historical support from the host:
  • Since 2011, rookie QBs (at least 8 games with rushing points) matching this pattern include:
    • Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, RGIII, Lamar Jackson, Jackson Dart
  • Dart recorded 7.3 rushing PPR points/game last year (not treated as fabricated “extra special”).
• Final stance: if Dart’s draft price doesn’t create significant opportunity cost (around round 8–10), the host says managers should lean into the upside.

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Presenters / Sources

• Presenter/Host: JJ Zachariason (Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast)
• Podcast network: iHeart Podcast
• ADP source referenced: Fantasy Data
• Other referenced brand/product sponsor mentions: Lowe’s (NFL partner), LG/Bosch appliances, Bounty/Swiffer (ad read)