Проблеск надежды на мрачном фоне // Как Путин смотрел д-ра Соловья. Ответы на вопросы. Вып.152

Overview

Valery Solovey (program “Hot Questions Answers”, episode 152) begins by saying he is going live amid a new “spark of hope”: a Telegram post on the SVR channel claims that American–Russian–Ukrainian consultations on a peace treaty may soon resume. He argues that even if negotiations do not fully succeed, they could still delay “Plan B.”

Solovey describes “Plan B” as a “monstrous escalation” scenario that would otherwise trigger further mobilization and harsher measures. He also claims that mobilization is currently “frozen” (temporarily), calling this a positive development.

Audience Q&A: Key Claims and Arguments

“Plan B” likelihood and outcomes

• Solovey says he lacks confidence that “Plan B” will be avoided entirely, citing that Russian foreign policy results over the last four years have largely been failures.
• At the same time, he argues outcomes are not predetermined: resuming trilateral talks keeps some scenarios on the table rather than making “Plan B” a guaranteed disaster.

Transit and timing (“central part of the transit”)

• He claims the transit plan remains broadly in sequence for now because resumed talks are expected.
• He says greater clarity should arrive by mid-summer and that he postpones detailed discussion until early July.

NATO response to a “hybrid operation”

When asked why he repeatedly claims NATO will not respond seriously, Solovey asserts:

• He has sources suggesting key European NATO countries plan to respond with “armed neutrality” rather than armed retaliation.
• He argues politicians’ public statements differ from private concessions (including a reference to material attributed to Stoltenberg memoirs).
• He emphasizes (in his view) that the current U.S. administration will not “open its umbrella” for Europe in such a scenario.
• He further claims the U.S. (including under Trump) would even encourage Russia to carry out such an operation.

Russia’s economy and “collapse” narratives

• He rejects claims that Russia is collapsing, calling economic arguments by “all economists” speculative and manipulative.
• He says many economists acknowledge serious problems but still see a significant margin of safety.
• He claims that if Russia shifts to a quasi-war/mobilization economic posture (one element of “Plan B”), support for operations could last years, not months.

A second mobilization

• He says a second mobilization would be harder and riskier than in 2022.
• Still, he claims the military-political leadership expects it can be implemented smoothly nationwide without unrest.
• He attributes this to elite planning and administrative/police effectiveness.

Elections and political trajectory

• Solovey argues United Russia should win the State Duma in an autumn election.
• He says SVO participants will receive seats.
• He frames the Duma as transitional, lasting about two years.
• He predicts presidential legitimacy during an eventual transition is likely, while immediate outcomes are portrayed as predetermined by the state of society.

Society’s readiness to resist or self-organize

• He says society has not “disappointed” him, but he has lowered his estimate of society’s potential for self-organization and national will.
• He argues change would come primarily from elites, not from mass mobilization.
• He claims elites will act through compromise rather than against each other.

Impact on peace and compromise

• Solovey calls for peace to end “fratricidal slaughter.”
• He describes compromise as something each side can frame as a victory, while conceding it will not match declared maximal goals—using an analogy from divorce proceedings.

Justifications for renewed escalation

He lists purported justifications:

• Allegations that the “Nazi regime / Kyiv junta” inflicts inhumane blows and terrorism.
• Claims that the Baltic states assist Ukrainian drones (including via airspace and guidance/repeaters).

Budget deficit

He claims Russia’s reported budget deficit (in the first months of the year) is connected to undisclosed spending tied to possible escalation preparations.

Telegram “blocking” / digital thaw

• He insists Telegram was not supposed to be blocked earlier.
• He says circumstances changed around “Plan B” pressures, leading to policy shifts.
• He reiterates the idea of a digital “thaw”—restrictions lifted—once politics and context change.

Transnistria / potential recognition

• He suggests that if “Plan B” succeeds, incorporating/recognizing Transnistria is “quite realistic.”

Currency reform (denomination)

He outlines two possible scenarios:

1. A confiscatory-type monetary reform (associated with the Pavlova plan) in a high-inflation “Plan B” context.
2. A “non-threatening” denomination in a later recovery context.

He says both are currently possible and depend on developments not yet knowable.

Closing Remarks

Solovey concludes by reiterating that he has answered most recurring questions and promises more answers in early July (Friday/Saturday for the next batch). He emphasizes the importance of physical and mental health, and encourages viewers to financially support the channel.

Presenters or Contributors

• Valery Solovey — host/presenter