The Conditions Of A Third World War Have Already Been Met | Volodymyr Yelchenko

Ukraine’s Position and Trump’s Comments on the War

The programme examined Ukraine’s worsening position and the implications of Donald Trump’s recent comments about the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was meeting European leaders as the Kremlin called for a “security zone” along Russia’s border with Ukraine. The interviewer said the proposal would require Russia to capture a further 10% of Donetsk and would be non-negotiable in peace talks.

Volodymyr Yelchenko’s Assessment

Former Ukrainian ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko said the Kremlin’s announcement was not new and argued that Russian claims should be treated sceptically. He said Ukraine urgently needs European support, including the release of frozen Russian assets.

Yelchenko warned that further Russian gains could cause millions more Ukrainians to flee to Europe. He also said residents of occupied areas could be mobilised into Russia’s armed forces. He called for a total economic and financial blockade of Russia, arguing that European countries will ultimately pay more to defend themselves if they do not help stop the war now. He also urged Europeans to prepare to defend their own countries.

Yelchenko described the situation as already resembling a third world war, though one very different from the previous two. The use of nuclear weapons, he said, was the key element still absent.

He was alarmed by Trump’s criticism of Zelenskyy and apparent sympathy for Putin. Yelchenko said Trump seemed to have changed since his first term, when he was more willing to hear advice. He warned that Trump might not understand the consequences of his current policy, but said he still hoped the US position could be changed.

Yelchenko rejected the idea that replacing Zelenskyy through an election would produce a Ukrainian leader willing to surrender Crimea or Donbas. Elections cannot be held under the current wartime constitutional arrangements, he said, and no future Ukrainian president would accept those terms.

Yelchenko on Russia and Ukraine’s History

Recalling his final months as Ukraine’s ambassador to Russia in 2014, Yelchenko said tensions had been rising since 2013, when Russia imposed trade restrictions and tried to draw Ukraine into a Russian-led customs or Eurasian union. He believed Russia would have invaded sooner or later, even if the events surrounding Ukraine’s revolution had not occurred.

Daniel Fried’s Assessment

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried agreed that Trump’s actions toward Ukraine had been damaging, but offered a less bleak interpretation. He argued that Trump is primarily acting in his own interests. Recent moves—including attacks on Zelenskyy and restrictions involving Starlink—may reflect short-term calculations around the US midterm elections rather than a settled strategic shift toward Russia.

Fried described competing factions within the administration: supporters of Ukraine and the “free world,” and those more willing to accept spheres of influence and deals with authoritarian leaders.

On Russia’s proposed security zone, Fried said a ceasefire along the current front lines could be workable, but forcing Ukraine to surrender territory Russia cannot conquer would be unacceptable. He stressed that the details matter.

Presenters and Contributors

• Cathy Newman — Presenter
• Volodymyr Yelchenko
• Daniel Fried