2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 10

Main ideas / concepts conveyed

• Economic calendar events strongly impact market volatility and can cause unexpected moves around scheduled news.
• Use an economic calendar (the speaker recommended forexfactory.com) and interpret impact colors:
  • Orange = medium impact
  • Yellow = low impact
  • Red = high impact / major news driver (not shown in the screenshot)
• Trading timing around news is important:
  • 8:30 AM is emphasized as a key reference point because that’s when the news embargo lifts and market movement often begins.
  • The market may behave in either of these ways:
    • A catalyst at release: price jumps up/down immediately
    • A pre-move: price gradually moves before the report, and the “real move” starts at/after release

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Methodology taught

1) Build context with the economic calendar

• Check the day’s economic calendar before trading.
• Be aware that major index-moving events may occur even if you don’t expect them.
• Plan trade execution around likely market behavior near known release times, especially 8:30 AM.

2) Daily chart bias: deciding up-day vs down-day (without “predicting every candle”)

• Core claim: daily bias is determined by how the daily range is likely to form.
• Key reference concepts:
  • Premium vs discount relative to the daily dealing range:
    • Above equilibrium (50%) = premium market
    • Below equilibrium (50%) = discount market
  • Structural range components:
    • Identify the high/low dealing range and equilibrium
    • Note imbalances (related to fair value gaps / fair value imbalance)
  • The market often follows the idea of rebalancing—for example, returning to a fair value gap/imbalance before continuing.

3) “Power Three” (daily candle formation model)

Power Three = Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution, and it corresponds to how a daily candle behaves.

Bearish (down-day bias) pattern

Expected sequence:

• Open → a rally up (often small to moderate)
• Then sell-off
• Then close near/at the low

Interpretation:

• Accumulation of shorts: shorts built near the open / above the open (within the “opening range” area)
• Manipulation: the initial rally that lures buyers / “breakout” traders into the wrong side
• Distribution: selling into the move; price returns down and closes near the low (distribution of short positions at/near lows)

Bullish (up-day bias) pattern (opposite)

Expected mirror behavior:

• Open near low → trade upward → close near high

Interpreted as:

• Accumulation of longs near the open/low
• Manipulation that can trap shorts
• Distribution of longs near the close/high

4) “Opening range” as a key trading area

On a bearish day, the speaker defines an “opening range” where short setups most likely form.

• Use the opening price to the high of the day / rally high to measure a bracket (distance from open to high).
• Project that measured distance down to define where price is expected to move.
• This area is also described as where fair value gaps and optimal short entry zones often reside.

Practical implication:

• If price leaves the predefined area, don’t chase.
• If price breaks beyond the planned zone, wait—the setup is no longer valid.

5) Swing-low / swing-high context for bias likelihood

• You don’t need complex fractal tools (like Williams Fractals).
• Use simple swing structure:
  • A swing low forms by three candles/bars (a low with a higher low on both sides)
  • A swing high is the mirror

Example logic:

• After a swing low forms, subsequent candle behavior often indicates whether price is likely to accumulate and run higher (bullish context) or wash out and run lower (bearish context).

6) Lower timeframes for execution (15-minute “bellwether” + confirmation)

Execution timeframes include:

• 15-minute chart: the primary bellwether for day trades/scalps and “panoramic” understanding
• Additional lower timeframes:
  • 5m / 4m / 3m: if a fair value gap is found here, you don’t need to go lower
  • If not found, check 2m, then 1m if needed

Execution logic repeated:

• If daily bias is bearish and price is at/near an important level (e.g., the daily fair value gap area), then the 15m should show Power Three down-day behavior.
• Often the day includes:
  • A short rally into the defined area (accumulation of shorts / “sucker play”)
  • Then down movement and closure toward lows

7) Fair value gaps + liquidity sweep logic

• Fair value gaps and imbalances act as key structural levels.
• Liquidity sweep ideas:
  • Sell-side liquidity: stops below lows may be cleared first
  • Buy-side liquidity: stops above highs may be taken
• Bias and patterns connect to liquidity events:
  • Sweep → retracement/rebalance → continuation in the direction implied by daily bias

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Risk, discipline, and execution guidance emphasized

• Losing trades are inevitable; the priority is risk management rather than assuming every trade will be a winner.
• The speaker discourages “silver bullet” thinking and warns that:
  • You may miss moves
  • You may be stopped out
• Overleveraging and overtrading can destroy an account.
• Warnings against “discount broker” margin approaches (hypothetical/leveraged trading with smaller initial margin):
  • Fast adverse moves and slippage can exceed risk assumptions.

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Practical checklist-style takeaways (condensed)

Before trading

• Check the economic calendar for the day and note high-impact events (especially around 8:30 AM).
• Decide whether the day is likely premium/discount and how the daily range may form.

Determine daily bias

• Use dealing range + equilibrium.
• Apply Power Three expectation:
  • Bearish: open → rally up → sell-off → close near low
  • Bullish: open near low → rally → close near high

Define the opening range zone (bearish)

• Use the opening-to-high (or opening-to-range) concept to project/identify expected shorting/distribution zones.

On 15-minute (and lower if needed)

• Look for price to move into the daily-defined zone consistent with bias.
• Consider fair value gaps/imbalances and liquidity sweeps.

During/after news

• Distinguish pre-move vs catalyst at release behavior.
• Avoid chasing if price leaves your planned setup area.

Risk management

• Accept losses; manage leverage and stops appropriately.
• Don’t rely on “demo-like” comfort—use real discipline.

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Speakers / sources featured

• Speaker / presenter: Instructor associated with ICT mentorship (name not given in subtitles)
• Website/source recommended: forexfactory.com (economic calendar)