Video summary

[LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – NVDA EARNINGS – The moment we've all been waiting for

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (markets, catalysts, strategies)

Date / Timing

  • Wednesday, Aug 26 (pre-market)
  • 8:30: Economic data cluster
    • PCE, GDP, durable goods, personal income/spending
  • 10:30: Crude oil inventories
  • 11:45: Fed president Tom (Thomas) Barkin speaking
  • After close today: Nvidia (NVDA) earnings
  • NVDA conference call: 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Planned NVDA live watch party: ~3:45 p.m. Eastern

Macro / Rates / Geopolitics (what’s driving the tape)

  • PCE and other data are framed as not the main driver versus:
    • NVDA earnings
    • Jackson Hole / Fed talk Friday
  • Fed watch:
    • Market implied odds shift toward “one hike and then pause”
    • 10-year yields described as sitting toward the lower end of a recent range
  • Rates
    • 10-year yield ~4.637% (down ~2 bps pre-market)
    • Commentary notes a desire to get below 4.5% to help markets
  • Geopolitics / Oil
    • Strait of Hormuz news flow cited as contributing to oil volatility
    • Crude around $80.60/bbl (down about 21.4 bps)
  • Tariffs
    • Canada retaliatory tariffs referenced: roughly $20B
    • Framed as ~5% of exports, not expected to “crunch” markets by itself

Earnings calendar / company-specific focus

Main catalyst

  • Nvidia (NVDA): described as the central theme of the day

Other earnings mentioned

  • Salesforce (CRM) (software cohort)
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD)
  • Okta (OKTA)
  • Palo Alto Networks (cyber context)
  • Elastic (ESTC)
  • SentinelOne (S)
  • Rubrik (RBRK)
  • Workday (WDAY)
  • Marvell (and others) referenced as part of a broader earnings “runway”
  • Tesla (TSLA) mentioned later in the stock-specific section (chart/levels)
  • Intel (INTC) and AMD discussed (pre-NVDA positioning)

Market setup & levels (index futures / ETFs)

Broad market direction

  • ES (S&P 500 futures):
    • 4-hour trend up (higher-low structure)
    • Hourly trend down and stabilizing
  • Emphasis on balance-range trading (limited directional edge in the middle)

Key ES futures numbers (explicit levels)

  • Major lows: ~7655
  • Major highs: ~7720
  • Midpoint / balance center: ~7680–7685
  • Value area framework (for intraday mean reversion)
    • Value area low: ~7680
    • Upper value area / range reference: ~7720
    • (Some transcription noise exists around additional “value area” mentions, but the actionable bounds repeated are ~7680 and ~7720)
  • Caution: “Don’t exchange/fiddle in the center”
    • Trade toward the edges of the range

Intraday “simplified pathing” recommendation (core framework)

  • Base case: mean reversion / two-sided chop inside the balance range ahead of NVDA
  • If hourly trend flips bullish (needs confirmation), then:
    • Either a sustained higher low
    • Or a break to a higher high — explicitly: get over Thursday’s high ~7720
  • If PCE comes in hot (“hotter” inflation prints):
    • Expect downward pressure first
    • Then fade / mean revert back into range

ES options / tape idea

  • Selling options discussed via IV-related tactics:
    • If trading GC futures: “selling puts on GC futures” on pullbacks
    • General idea: “selling calls” on strong up days depending on positioning

NQ / Nasdaq futures (more bearish tone)

  • NQ (Nasdaq-100 futures) described as bearish
    • Hourly trend remains down
    • Buyers not showing “ideal” follow-through

Key NQ levels

  • Value area low / critical: ~29200
  • “Follow-through day low” nearby: ~292 (as transcribed)
  • Gap close level: ~28950
  • Upper resistance area: ~29415

Strategy emphasis for NQ

  • Prefer waiting for a bounce into a failed rally / lower-high setup
    • Rather than shorting directly in the “hole” at lows

QQQ / “Spiders” (cash ETF reference)

  • QQQ chart said to mirror ES balance logic

Key QQQ levels

  • Resistance / key “top-ish” level: ~76750
  • Support / gap fill reversal zone: ~76025 to 75857
  • Additional midpoint references around ~76415

Company + stock trading notes (tactical)

NVDA (earnings trade framing)

  • Expect NVDA implied “measured move” ~ $11.50 (~5%)
  • Watch timing, response, and Jensen commentary (per notes)
  • Options-like decision gate:
    • Over/under level ~212.75

META

  • Large overnight move tied to an agreement / risk resolution
  • Advice: don’t chase
  • Prefer fading near:
    • ~600
    • ~50 SMA failure patterns
  • Note: warns about options spread widening after the first ~15 minutes and IV impacts

AMD / Intel (pre-NVDA cautious stance)

  • AMD:
    • Described as “fat-able” (fade opportunity)
    • But presenter leans that higher lows aren’t confirmed (under/near the 50-day area)
  • Intel (INTC):
    • Described as very weak (“garbage” tone)
    • Prefer not shorting in the support zone
    • Instead short a lower high bounce for better risk/reward

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Pre-market weakness
  • Idea: rallies failing and breaking below:
    • ~34950
    • and also levels around the 3400s
  • Framed as gap-fill reversal shorts

Other names / tape notes

  • Broadcom (AVGO): weak, pulling market down (noted ~2.55% weight)
  • MU (Micron Technology):
    • No strong bias
    • Could mean-revert or close a gap ahead of NVDA
    • Notes memory cost rising likely a Jensen talking point
  • XLF referenced as an ETF context item (financials)

Economic prints (key numbers explicitly stated)

PCE

  • Core PCE MoM: 0.2% (matches expectation)
  • Core PCE YoY: 3.3% (matches expectation)
  • Non-core PCE YoY: 3.7% (same as prior; miss vs 3.6 consensus)
  • Non-core PCE MoM: 0.2% (forecast 0.1; prior -0.1) → “hotter”

GDP / durable / income & spending

  • Real GDP Q2 (second estimate): 1.5% (consensus; prior 2.1% revised down)
  • Durable goods orders: 1.1% (consensus 0.5%)
  • Personal income: 4% (forecast 2%)
  • Personal spending: 0.2% (forecast 0.1%; prior -0.3%)

Explicit methodology / frameworks used

“3.5 questions” process (intraday pathing)

  1. Where are we opening relative to the prior “priorities range”?
    • Range/middle vs edges
  2. Where are we opening relative to the value area?
    • Above/below = directional bias buffer
  3. Where are we opening relative to the overnight range?
    • Upper third vs lower third
  4. Inventory bias:
    • Estimate net long vs net short via time above/below settlement
    • (used as a proxy from prior day settlement behavior)

“Simplified pathing”

  • If balanced inside range: base case = mean reversion / fades (two-sided chop)
  • If value area breaks / rejection patterns occur:
    • Path shifts to testing the opposite edge or deeper into the range
  • Trend change requires confirmation (example):
    • hourly trend flip via higher lows
    • or breaking ~7720 on ES

Risk management / cautions explicitly stated

  • Repeated caution against trading in the middle of the balance range:
    • “don’t exchange/fiddle in the center”
  • “Mean reversion day ahead of Nvidia ER”:
    • Fade lows/fade highs, but don’t seek continuation
    • Mean-reversion setups are susceptible to liquidation-driven breaks if bids disappear ahead of the catalyst
  • For META:
    • Avoid chasing due to options spread widening after the first ~15 minutes and IV impacts

Disclosures

  • No explicit “not financial advice” line appears in the provided subtitles.

Tickers / instruments mentioned

Equities / stocks

  • NVDA, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, S, ESTC, RBRK, WDAY
  • Marvell (ticker not clearly stated)
  • AMD, INTC
  • AVGO
  • META
  • MU
  • TSLA
  • Palo Alto Networks (ticker not stated)
  • AAPL referenced implicitly (“Apple”)
  • XLF referenced as an ETF (not a stock)
  • HPE / HPQ (HPQ referenced)
  • MSFT, AMZN, GOOG (spelled “GooG”)
  • SMCI not mentioned

ETFs

  • QQQ (“Spiders”)
  • XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR)

Index futures

  • ES futures
  • NQ futures

Commodities / rates instruments

  • Crude oil
  • Gold futures (GC futures)
  • 10-year notes / 10-year yield

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Presenter: “Jensen” (NVDA CEO, referenced for expected commentary)
  • Source: CNBC (used for “topline figures courtesy of CNBC”)
  • Fed speakers mentioned:
    • Tom (Thomas) Barkin
    • Michelle Bowman (name referenced to avoid confusion)
    • Waller / “Worsh” (Jay Powell referenced indirectly; “Worsh” and “Worsh on Friday” is the only explicit phrasing)

Original video