Finnlands Präsident Stubb: Warum die Putin-Warnungen falsch sind / Why Putin Warnings Are Wrong

Summary

In an interview with Paul Ronzheimer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb argued that Europe should prepare for Russian threats without exaggerating the likelihood of an imminent attack on NATO.

Finland’s security and border

Stubb said Finns remain calm and prepared. Russian forces near the Finnish border have been reduced because some units were sent to Ukraine, but Russia is expanding military infrastructure in the area, which could support a future buildup.

Finland relies on its military, border guards, surveillance technology, and other defenses. It is also adapting to newer threats, including drones and missiles.

Hybrid threats and responses

Stubb described cyberattacks, sabotage, airspace violations, and other incidents as forms of hybrid warfare, often occurring below NATO’s Article 5 threshold. He said attribution can be difficult and should be made carefully, even when Russian involvement seems likely. If responsibility is established, a diplomatic démarche may be appropriate.

More broadly, he advised responding calmly rather than amplifying Russian provocations.

Risk of a Russian attack on NATO

Stubb said he sees no evidence that Russia is preparing to attack NATO, which he considers protected by powerful conventional and nuclear deterrence. He pointed to Russia’s heavy commitment of forces in Ukraine and its major losses.

He rejected a specific forecast of an attack by 2029 as unsupported by evidence, while stressing that countries should plan for difficult scenarios to deter them. He also said the concerns of the Baltic states are understandable.

Ukraine and the war’s outcome

Stubb called continued support for Ukraine essential, describing the country as a key security guarantee for Europe. He argued that Ukraine’s survival as an independent, sovereign state would constitute victory and said it could eventually join the EU and NATO.

After a recent visit to Ukraine, he said he saw confidence as well as grief. He emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense, including Patriot systems, and highlighted the country’s rapid expansion of drone production.

Negotiations and Russia

Stubb favored a two-stage path to peace: first a ceasefire, then negotiations that include Ukrainian, European, American, and Russian perspectives. He said there should be “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” and “nothing about Europe without Europe.”

He supports maintaining communication with Russia to prevent misunderstandings, although political-level dialogue has not yet resumed. Stubb doubted that economic pressure or Russian battlefield losses alone would end the war. In his view, a perceived threat to the regime or a new mobilization could have greater consequences inside Russia.

Escalation and nuclear weapons

Stubb considered Russian use of nuclear weapons unlikely and said Russia’s remaining options for escalating the war were limited, with mobilization the main one. He warned that Russian information warfare encourages Europeans to dwell on worst-case scenarios and urged vigilance without dramatization.

Stubb also welcomed American-Russian communication through diplomatic and intelligence channels, while saying he had no direct knowledge of the reported Moscow visit by the CIA director. He said the United States appears to understand that Ukraine will not simply lose the war, but that Russia still needs to be persuaded that continuing the conflict is no longer advantageous.

Presenters and contributors

• Paul Ronzheimer — interviewer
• Alexander Stubb — President of Finland, interviewee