Nov 5 premarket

Market Outlook

• Euro: The euro may be forming an intermediate bottom near its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a support/resistance zone. The speaker expects a rally lasting several weeks but warns that it could be temporary. The euro may be near a multi-year cycle top and could eventually break below its 200-week moving average.
• U.S. dollar: The dollar is viewed as being in a secular bear market but a cyclical bull market, following a likely three-year cycle low in January. The speaker expects another leg higher, potentially lasting six months to a year or more—possibly as long as 18 months. The dollar may need to break above its declining 200-day EMA before the advance peaks. The speaker does not expect it to exceed the prior three-year cycle high.
• Gold and precious metals: Gold may have completed a short intermediate decline and could rally for about 5–8 weeks. The speaker characterizes this as a likely countertrend bear-market rally and expects it to struggle below a prior pivot before the dollar’s next advance pressures metals again. The broader outlook remains cautious: metals are considered extended above the 200-day EMA, and lower highs and lower lows suggest a longer-term decline. A later low could either be an unusually stretched half-eight-year-cycle low or be followed by three to four years of sideways trading before an eight-year-cycle low and a possible subsequent “bubble phase.”
• Bitcoin (BTC): The speaker sees a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern but says the right shoulder may not be complete. A decline could continue next week, potentially pushing weekly RSI toward oversold. Alternatively, a move back above the 10-week EMA with follow-through could mark the decline’s end. Once the pattern completes and breaks out, the speaker estimates a move toward roughly $115,000–$120,000, with resistance along the way and a possible retest of the all-time high.

Technical Framework and Trade Considerations

• Euro: The potential bottom is assessed using the 200-day EMA and a support/resistance zone; longer-term risk is judged against the 200-week moving average.
• U.S. dollar: The analysis uses three-year cycle timing, the dollar’s relationship with the declining 200-day EMA, and the distinction between secular and cyclical trends.
• Gold: The speaker tracks intermediate-cycle duration, weekly RSI, the 200-day EMA, and the broader eight-year cycle. A countertrend rally may be tradable, with a possible exit near the top as weekly RSI becomes overbought.
• Bitcoin: The speaker uses the inverse head-and-shoulders setup and a measured-move estimate. A rise from roughly $57,000 to $87,000 is treated as a roughly $30,000 move, projected toward approximately $115,000. Confirmation would include a weekly swing and a move back above the 10-week EMA.

Caution: These are the speaker’s technical-analysis views and forecasts. Several depend on future confirmation and could be wrong. No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Presenter/source: Gary Savage (channel attribution).