Market Crashing - Where is Support

Summary

The presenter described a sharply weaker crypto market, with Bitcoin back near a major monthly support area. The key question is whether that support holds into the monthly close: a strong rebound could restore a bullish setup, while a confirmed breakdown could open a much lower support zone. Altcoins were described as weaker than Bitcoin. The presenter emphasized that short-term price action remains uncertain despite a generally optimistic long-term view of crypto.

Market Levels and Outlook

• Bitcoin (BTC):

  • Trading around $67,000 during the discussion, near monthly support around $60,000–$62,000.
  • The monthly close was described as crucial, with about two weeks remaining. A close below the marked support would lead the presenter to reconsider the bullish thesis; the next major support area discussed was around $45,000.
  • A monthly close above $76,000 would be a strong bullish confirmation and, in the presenter’s view, a reason to add substantially to a position. However, this was considered unlikely in the time available.
  • For near-term strength, the presenter cited a daily close above roughly $66,000. A weak bounce or failure to reclaim support could leave the market vulnerable.
  • A failed range breakdown followed by a return into the range was viewed as bearish. A possible short-term range trade back toward $62,000–$65,000 was mentioned.
  • The presenter expected a bounce from the current support zone but cautioned that it could be only a temporary relief rally.

• Ethereum (ETH):

  • Described as following a similar but weaker pattern than Bitcoin.
  • A daily close above roughly $1,830 was presented as a near-term sign of strength.
  • Around $1,000 was identified as a potentially attractive support or buy area if the price fell further. A close above $2,200 was described as a clearer bullish signal.
  • For leveraged trades, the presenter preferred stronger assets over ETH in the current conditions.

• Other crypto assets:

  • Monad (MON): The presenter described failed breakouts and noted an upcoming token unlock, identified in the discussion as November 24. They planned to hold unlocked tokens while bullish on crypto, but said some might need to be sold for tax reasons and potentially bought back.
  • XRP: The presenter recalled buying around $0.50–$0.60 after Trump’s election and seeing it rise to about $3.30, as an example of the prior altcoin rally.
  • Zcash (ZEC): The presenter cited a move from roughly $40 to $800, but said they did not trade it and were wary of coins driven by narratives they did not fully believe in.
  • Litecoin (LTC): Described as a personal late-cycle indicator. A sharp Litecoin rally can suggest speculative buying is spreading late in a move, prompting the presenter to tighten stops.
  • Dogecoin (DOGE) and meme coins: The presenter compared the meme-coin cycle to NFTs, suggesting the broad speculative phase may have passed, though individual meme coins could still rally.
  • Gold: The presenter noted that gold had first rallied amid concern about the world economy and was then selling off.

Trading Framework and Risk Management

• Use the monthly close to validate or invalidate the broader thesis. The presenter’s Bitcoin plan depended on whether monthly support held; a close below it would prompt reassessment.
• Treat support reactions as conditional, not guaranteed. A support bounce could become a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived relief rally, depending on follow-through.
• Define a stop and target before using leverage. The example discussed was a support-based trade with a stop below the relevant low and targets set according to conviction. A lower-timeframe bounce trade might target roughly $69,000–$71,000.
• Be cautious with leverage and breakout buying. The presenter said they generally prefer buying assets when they are cheaper rather than chasing breakouts, and personally hesitated to use leverage because of the risk and the need to manage positions.
• Expect sharp countertrend bounces after steep declines. The presenter warned that shorts can be squeezed by aggressive relief rallies, even in a bearish trend. Traders should plan how to take profits or re-enter rather than allowing a winning position to turn into a loss.
• Account for token unlocks. The presenter said the most difficult period is often roughly two to six weeks before a large unlock, when holders may hedge. The unlock itself may attract attention without necessarily causing a fresh selloff; the actual price response still depends on broader market conditions.
• Limit exchange exposure after security incidents. Following the discussed Binance hack, the presenter said they would withdraw funds from an affected exchange and wait before considering a return. They did not expect Binance to fail, but said even a perceived 2%–3% risk was not worth taking with funds left on the exchange.

Broader Context and Convictions

The presenter attributed some of the deterioration in market conditions to cryptocurrency hacks and uncertainty around AI and politics. They argued that political and geopolitical unpredictability makes markets harder to assess.

They said crypto trading becomes harder as participants gain experience and markets become more competitive. The presenter remained broadly optimistic about crypto over the long term, but said Bitcoin was the only crypto asset they felt strongly confident about long term. Their view on ETH was more tentative.

Disclosures

No explicit spoken “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Presenters and Sources

• DonAlt appears to provide the chart commentary.
• CryptoCred is discussed as a co-host who was not participating in this episode.
• TechnicalRoundup is the channel and source.