Why Everything is Going Wrong for Saudi Arabia

Overview: Saudi Arabia’s deteriorating strategic and economic position

Saudi Arabia is described as being in a rapidly worsening strategic and economic situation, driven mainly by escalations near key maritime chokepoints and Saudi setbacks in Yemen.

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Red Sea chokepoint threat and Houthi gains

• The Houthis’ sudden offensive in northwestern Yemen is presented as a direct near-term threat to Saudi access to global shipping.
• The video claims the Houthis seized roughly 5,400 square kilometers along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including:
  • Mocha (Moha) (a strategic port city)
  • Hanish Islands
  • Perim Island, about 20 km from Djibouti, which could enable the Houthis to disrupt or potentially block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
• With much of the Red Sea coastline under Houthi control, the argument is that Saudi Arabia could face severe disruptions to:
  • Oil exports
  • International maritime traffic

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Parallel pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi oil logistics

• On Saudi’s eastern flank, the video argues Iran is also pressuring Saudi interests by forcibly blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
• As a workaround, Saudi Arabia reportedly relied more heavily on the East–West pipeline (from the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea), designed to hedge against Hormuz risks.
• The video claims Houthi-aligned or Iranian-backed actors attacked pipeline pumping stations with missiles and drones, forcing Saudi Arabia to shut down the pipeline and face weeks-long restoration timelines—while warning repeated attacks remain likely.
• It further claims:
  • Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb dropped to nearly zero
  • Exports via Hormuz were reduced to a minimum

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Economic fallout: oil production and revenue collapse

The consequences are framed as severe economic contraction:

• Saudi production is said to have been cut to about 6 million barrels/day (described as the lowest in decades).
• By mid-September, exports were claimed to be down about 70% versus early-year levels, from 7.5 mb/d to about 2.1 mb/d.
• Because the Saudi government is portrayed as heavily dependent on oil revenue (about 60% of budget revenues), the video argues Saudi Arabia may need to sell investments (e.g., US Treasuries, private equity/AI investments) and could face unrest if the shortfall deepens.

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Why this happened: Saudi miscalculation and long-running conflict dynamics

• The video argues the Houthis emerged partly in response to Saudi interference in Yemen, and that Saudi intervention produced an enduring stalemate.
• It claims Saudi Arabia chose an approach focused on airstrikes and blockade rather than a large-scale ground campaign, partly to avoid a quagmire against a numerically superior, terrain-fortified opponent.
• After the 2022 ceasefire, the Houthis are portrayed as regrouping, retraining, and rearming, alongside increased arms smuggling from Iran/Hezbollah.

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Escalation cycle involving Iran–Houthi alignment

The video links the timing of the Houthi offensive with Iran’s broader war posture, including pressure on Hormuz, and depicts an escalation spiral beginning mid-July:

• A Houthi delegation allegedly traveled to Iran for a state funeral using Mahan Air.
• Saudi actions described include bombing the runway at Sanaa International Airport to prevent landing and rerouting the plane to Hodeidah.
• The video says this provided the Houthis a pretext to abandon the ceasefire.
• It then describes renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi territory (missiles/drones) and a shift toward blockade/attacks on Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.

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Saudi coalition problems in Yemen

The anti-Houthi camp is portrayed as fractured:

• Multiple groups (Sunni fundamentalists, southern separatists, tribal militias, etc.) share little besides opposition to the Houthis.
• The video claims the UAE backed southern separatists and tried to seize control in December 2025, prompting Saudi crackdown and the withdrawal of Emirati troops—leaving Saudi Arabia managing a patchwork of unreliable allies.
• During the Houthi advance, the video alleges chaos and mutual blame among anti-Houthi commanders, including footage described as militants selling weapons during retreats.

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Limited US involvement and the failure of deterrence

• The video claims Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested US help (airstrikes) and made two calls to President Donald Trump as the Houthis advanced, but Trump declined.
• It attributes Trump’s refusal to:
  • Avoiding an unpopular new Middle East war close to US midterms
  • Constraints on US military posture (including Hormuz and other global commitments)
• It also argues the Houthis signaled restraint toward American and Israeli ships, stating they would focus on Saudi targets in exchange for the US not intervening.

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NATO-style defense pact skepticism

• Saudi Arabia’s mutual defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan (described as having a NATO Article 5-like clause) is cited as a factor expected to strengthen deterrence.
• The video claims that after the Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi territory, Turkey and Pakistan’s responses were minimal (“thoughts and prayers”), raising doubts about the pact’s practical effect.

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Bottom-line conclusion

The core conclusion is that Saudi Arabia faces a convergence of military, logistical, and economic pressures—especially around Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz—at a time when Yemen’s internal political-military dynamics leave Saudi Arabia few workable options.

The video argues Saudi Arabia cannot realistically defeat the Houthis without external support or a large ground commitment (which it lacks the ability and incentives to sustain). As a result, Saudi Arabia may be pushed toward either:

• Negotiation/submission to demands, or
• Waiting out the wider Iran war—both described as uncertain paths.

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Presenters / contributors

• The video’s narrator/host is not explicitly named in the subtitles.
• A sponsor is mentioned: Cover On (with promotional details), but no specific spokesperson name is provided.