Gold Is Above $4,000. Why Aren't Mining Stocks Soaring? | Oliver Dachsel

Finance-focused Summary (Markets + Investing Angle)

Macro / market context (gold-miner linkage)

• The classic pitch—“when gold goes up, miners go up more” (operating leverage)—has been less straightforward in this cycle.
• Even with gold around ~$4,150, many mining stocks are not fully pricing in confidence that the gold price will hold.
• Miners have experienced a whipsaw dynamic: they ran hard, then corrected just as hard.

Core question posed

• The discussion shifts from whether gold is in a bull market to which miners can turn >$4,000 gold into real cash flow, versus companies that are “all a story.”

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Aerys Mining Interview Highlights (Financials + Guidance)

Presenter / source framing

• Host: Jeremy Safford (Kitco News)
• Guest: Oliver Dachsel, Head of Capital Markets, Aerys Mining

Key operating + financial numbers cited

• Q2 production: ~74,000 ounces (+26% YoY)
• First half production: +31% (oz growth stated)
• Average gold sold price (H1): ~$4,445/oz
• Cost to dig: ~$1,500/oz (described as implied cost/opex-like figure)
• Revenue (H1): tops $680 million (according to the company)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $610 million (last 12 months as of Q1)
• Margins: solidly above 50%
• Cash balance (end of Q2): $425 million cash on hand
• Cashflow implication: emphasized exceptionally elevated margins and significant cash generation to support growth

Explicit guidance / production targets

• This year guidance: 300,000–350,000 ounces
• Target: 500,000 ounces (framed as a near-term transformation step)
• Longer-term potential: potentially quadrupling relative to last year within ~5 years (year referenced later: ~2031)

Cash funding / balance-sheet stance

• Claim: no need for external capital
• Plan: self-fund growth based on:
  • strong cash generation
  • a strong balance sheet
  • staged, sequential project development

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Production “Bridge” / Step-by-Step Framework

1) Siglo(i)a expansion (Colombia)

• Current direction: ramp-up toward ~300,000 oz annual
• Mechanism:
  • Debottlenecking the processing plant
    • installed a second “bonal” (subtitle unclear; likely a processing/boiler-related unit) on time and on budget
  • Increase throughput capacity by 50% (done last year)
  • Ramp mining rates and increase “tail/hollage capacity” (subtitle unclear)
• Throughput target: consistently run at 3,000 tons/day starting next year
• Timing: reach ~300,000 oz next year

2) Marmato transformation (Colombia)

• Goal: convert a marginal asset into a second cornerstone
• Components:
  • build a bulk mining zone targeting a porphyry-hosted “metothermal” gold deposit (subtitle wording unclear)
  • mechanize bulk mining via long haul open stoping
  • build a dedicated 5,000 ton/day carbon pulp plant
• Timing / construction targets:
  • first gold pour in Q4 of this year (on track per guest)
  • stage ramp-up throughout 2027
  • first half of next year: 4,000 tons/day at the CIP plant
  • exit 2027: 5,000 tons/day
  • 2028: first full year with consistent 5,000 tons/day operations
• Output implications:
  • enables Marmato production ~200,000 oz
  • combined with Siglo(i)a: ~500,000 oz total

3) Construction risks explicitly called out

• Substation
• “Gold room”
• Guest acknowledges these are tighter on the timeline but says they are well managed and confident in delivering Q4 first pour

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Additional Projects + Permitting Framework (Growth Runway)

So Norte (Colombia)

• Guest expects to build it (no construction decision at time of interview)
• Status:
  • working on a PFS planned for publication in the second half of this year
  • technical work ongoing: geotechnical drilling, detailed engineering, metallurgical test work
• Permitting:
  • environmental license already obtained
  • remaining step: amendment of the mining license
• Government / political engagement:
  • meetings in Georgetown with the president, minister of natural resources, and minister of finance
• Timeline:
  • fully permitted by end of this year
  • construction decision planned for Q1 next year
  • construction timeline: ~2.5 years
  • first gold: late 2029
• Production impact:
  • contributes ~235,000 oz annually
  • production lift: from ~500,000 oz to ~735,000 oz

Toro Peru (spelled “Toro Pararu” in subtitles)

• Discussed under a “Gana and Toro Peru” segment
• Expected construction decision: Q1 after permitting
• First gold: late 2029
• ~235,000 oz annually

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Jurisdiction / Macro Risk Discussion (Colombia Policy Shift)

• Colombia is described as improving for mining under a new government
  • So Norte permit expected this quarter
  • the guest references a president-elect (name appears garbled in subtitles), framed as pro-business / pro-mining / pro-security
• Licensing stance: shift toward constructive and pragmatic permitting
  • base case permitting duration: ~18 months (could be quicker)
• Environmental stance:
  • Aerys is partnering with contract mining partners to formalize an otherwise informal sector
  • positioned as beneficial for biodiversity / environmental protection

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Valuation / Performance Metrics Mentioned (Investor Thesis)

Investment case pillars

• Transformational organic growth
  • double gold production vs. last year to 500,000 oz by 2028
  • potential quadrupling within ~5 years (around 2031 mentioned)
• Self-funding (no external capital claim)
• Experienced leadership and execution track record

Valuation language (multiples + yields)

• “Forward-looking EVA multiples” below 3x
• “PNAF multiple” mentioned as a range (subtitle unclear; appears misread/garbled)
• Free cash flow yields described as significant from next year onwards
• Tone: miners are “inexpensive” vs peers with catalysts to close the valuation gap

Scenario-based framing

• If gold doesn’t rise further and instead stays around $4,000, guest says Aerys remains attractive—implying the thesis does not require an additional gold rally.

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Explicit Cautions / Uncertainties / Disclosures

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• Main cautions are operational/jurisdiction-related:
  • construction elements (e.g., substation, gold room) could be tighter than expected
  • permitting timing uncertainty (base case ~18 months, could be quicker or not)

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Tickers / Instruments / Assets Mentioned

• Gold price references: ~$4,150, $4,000, $4,445, and also $2,600 (used in a government revenue/tax example)
• Silver mentioned as volatile / down from record levels
• No specific stock tickers, ETFs, bonds, or crypto mentioned in the subtitles

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned (End of Segment)

• Jeremy Safford (Kitco News)
• Oliver Dachsel / “Oliver Dashel” (Aerys Mining)