Александр Морозов: Нет ни одного сценария окончания войны

Summary

The war and its possible end

Alexander Morozov says the situation has changed sharply since the previous year. Hopes that Donald Trump’s peace initiative might lead to a ceasefire have faded, while the war has intensified and taken on a broader dimension involving Europe. Although debate over how the war might end continues, Morozov sees no current path to a settlement.

Reactions within Russia

Morozov argues that Russia’s party and economic elites are rallying around Putin because they fear being held responsible for the war and its consequences. Much of the population, by contrast, has little reason to rally behind the government: the war’s duration and consequences have created anxiety and uncertainty.

Repression also constrains political and civic activity. The Kremlin increasingly brands dissenters as extremists or terrorists, including people in cultural and educational fields. Analysts disagree about what this means for Russia’s future: some expect social pressures eventually to produce upheaval rather than organized civic action, while others see the younger generation as a possible source of change. For now, Morozov says, people who oppose the war or Putinism cannot act in a consolidated way, and election results offer little practical political leverage.

A possible post-Putin transition

Drawing on Kirill Rogov’s analysis, Morozov suggests that the first post-Putin coalition would need to preserve some continuity and carefully address the previous regime’s failures in order to retain control. A later coalition could pursue deeper change. He cautions against assuming that change would come through a single revolutionary figure.

Europe’s security challenge

The weakening or uncertainty of US support has pushed Europe to develop defense strategies, fund its own security, and continue supporting Ukraine. Morozov says Europe has also had to recognize Kremlin-backed hybrid operations as part of a broader conflict. He rejects predictions that Europe will simply fall apart and takes a similarly cautious view of claims that US democracy is permanently destroyed.

Artificial intelligence

The discussion focuses not on AI’s creative applications but on its potential use in political control, cyberwarfare, disinformation, and the exploitation of large data sets.

Uncertainty and hope

Morozov resists an entirely apocalyptic view of the present. He acknowledges current anxiety but notes that earlier generations endured immense upheaval, war, and loss. He believes an answer to today’s disorder will eventually emerge.

He names “uncertainty” as his word for the year. Once deliberately cultivated by some Kremlin strategists, uncertainty has become a wider international condition. The central question, he says, is whether political actors—including Trump in the United States—can turn disruption into a new form of stability.

Presenters and contributors

• Vera Ryklina — Host
• Alexander Morozov — Guest, political scientist