Video summary

+969% Return in 1 Year: The Pullback Strategy of a Trading Champion

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Performance / Trading Record & Outcomes

  • Started trading Oct 2020 with about $300 (~HKD 10,000); tripled the account in the first ~4 months.
  • 2024: joined USIC; finished with ~+280% return.
  • 2025: +969% return (per host) / “over 900%”; track record stated:
    • 209 winning trades
    • 731 losing trades
    • Reported win rate: ~20–25% (explicitly mentions it “further decreased to 22%,” but also says it’s not closely watched).
  • 2025 pullback vs prior approach: traded more than 2024, attributing part of the increased trade count to trading pullbacks.

Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

ETFs / Funds / Indices / Leverage

  • Ques / “Q’s” (generally Nasdaq-100 exposure)
  • SQQ (may trade “SQQ,” as stated)
  • TQQ (explicitly used for a parabolic long example; treated as leveraged Q exposure)
  • IWM (used as a market/benchmark and for regime checks)
  • UPs (context suggests UPS)

Crypto / Commodities (Brief)

  • Gold / silver
  • Mentions “commodities” generally (no specific commodity futures tickers captured)

Stocks / Equities (Many Examples; Some Ambiguity)

  • UPS
  • QS
  • Circle (likely C, but not fully clear)
  • Rocket Lab (ticker not clearly stated)
  • SoFi (SOFI)
  • AO (ambiguous in subtitles; likely AO)
  • Futu (FUTU implied)
  • SMR
  • Oklo (OKLO)
  • LTI
  • Quantum/theme names: INQ / IQ (repeated ticker appears clearer as IQ), RGTI, QBTS, AL
  • Tesla (TSLA implied)
  • AMX
  • ACR
  • AMD
  • NVDA / Nvidia
  • SoFi / Solar names (solar tickers include):
    • CSIQ
  • Other mentioned examples (some subtitle ambiguity):
    • AQUO (could be AQUA / AQUO ambiguity)
    • SNDK
    • BBBI
    • BBAI
  • Short example: UU
  • “E” / Echo Fulls (unclear in subtitles)

Energies / Miners / Metals Theme

  • Trades a “gold miners ETF” and references “gold minus the ETF”.
  • The specific ETF ticker is not clearly captured.

Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework (“Pullback Strategy”)

Core Style

  • Swing trader and trend follower
  • Strong emphasis on pullback entries (not purely breakouts)

Risk Framework (Explicit Numbers)

  • Risk per trade: about 0.5% of portfolio (can be less/more depending on cushioning/conditions).
  • Typical position sizing: most positions 25–30% of portfolio.
    • ~20% for small/micro caps due to gap-down risk (sometimes 10–20% or even 30%).
    • Occasionally >35% for very slow names (including gold/silver or index-type setups), still bounded by the 0.5% risk rule.
  • Stops:
    • Generally <3%, often ~2.5% or less
    • Common stop placements:
      • Low of day
      • Sometimes low of the entry candle
    • Mentions a logic that tighter stops can offset a low win rate.

Signal Inputs / Indicators

  • Uses EMAs (explicitly): 9, 21, 50, and also 150.
  • Uses Anchor VWAP heavily:
    • Applied on daily charts as a key level and shown on intraday charts
    • Anchored to swing highs for longs and swing lows for shorts
    • Claims effectiveness ~80–90% of the time when used

Market Regime Checks

  • Monitors Q’s and IWM (also referenced as “breath/improving” context).
  • Trades depend on whether the market is trending vs choppy.

Pullback Entry Structure (Conditions He Looks For)

Pullbacks should align with:

  • Pullback into support where price reacts
  • Specifically:
    • Daily 9 EMA / 21 EMA
    • Rising/falling EMAs
    • Prior swing highs/lows
    • Anchor VWAP
  • Timing preference:
    • On gaps up, stocks often get “slammed” early (first 30–60 minutes), then may reclaim
    • He targets later intraday setups after the early flush/rejection finds support

Intraday “Sniper” Execution (Trigger & Stops)

Trigger Framework

After identifying daily/hourly levels (Anchor VWAP + EMAs), he zooms intraday:

  • Often waits for breakout of the previous bar high
  • Timeframe usage:
    • 1-minute for very early windows
    • then 5-minute for the first ~15 minutes to ~60 minutes after the open (he describes switching timeframes)

Stop Placement

  • Often at:
    • Low of day
    • or low of the breakout bar / entry candle
  • Depends on candle tightness and risk tolerance.

Stop-Tightening Thesis

He argues the edge comes from:

  • tight stops (often 2.5% or less)
  • high-quality entries
  • derisking into strength quickly

Cautions/disclosures:

  • Tight-stop systems can still produce volatile equity curves
  • Drawdowns can worsen due to behavioral slip/random trading during losing streaks, especially in gap-down/choppy conditions.

Sell / Profit-Taking Process

  • No single rigid sell rule; he uses partials:
    • Sell partials into strength on ~3-hour or 5-hour timescales (hourly-based triggers mentioned)
    • Typical first trim: ~15–20%
    • Often trails the remainder using EMAs (especially 9 EMA) when strength continues
  • For shorts:
    • Tends to be more aggressive
    • First profits typically within 2–3 days
    • Prefers “closing into strength” earlier to reduce exposure
    • Mentions different behavior depending on whether he can close into strength vs weakness (risk/math edge discussion)

Key Macro / Market Context

Trending Markets

  • “Clear uptrends / clear downtrends” are easier to participate in.

Choppy Markets (Notably Dec 2025)

  • Strategy got punished because:
    • tight-stop + pullback/breakout setups can fail frequently without follow-through

Indirect Regime Call (Relative Strength)

  • In late 2025, he observed Q’s vs IWM relative strength:
    • used it to infer higher/lower probabilities of deeper pullbacks/corrections
  • Empirical finding being studied:
    • If IWM leads, Q’s have a lower probability of a deeper correction
    • Mentions historical ~15%+ drawdown conditions (numbers somewhat unclear in subtitles), concluding that regime/relative strength matters for shorting frequency.

2025 Drawdown Drivers & Explicit Cautions / Recommendations

  • 2025 goal: minimize drawdown
  • Missed it due to December 2025 drawdown ~26%

He attributes the December drawdown to three main issues:

  1. Overtrading
    • About 770–80 trades in Dec (subtitles suggest “770–80” or similar range)
    • Later says ~46% of trades were “bad trades”
  2. Long/short flipping while losing follow-through
    • switching repeatedly (short → stopped → long → stopped → short again)
    • created compounding losses
  3. Too bearish bias into choppier conditions
    • focused on small/micro cap/speculative names that were declining
    • ignored that broader leadership (e.g., IWM outperforming Q’s) suggested the market wasn’t as weak as shorts assumed

Lesson / recommendation he explicitly states:

  • In choppy conditions, trade less, especially on the short side.
  • Also notes partials were sometimes not taken early enough:
    • he wanted 3-hour or 5-hour partial targets
    • but price only moved about ~4–6% before reversing.

Example Setup: “Parabolic Bottom” (Leveraged Q Exposure)

High-Level Thesis (TQQ example)

  • Context:
    • after ~20% below the 1-hour EMA, the move is described as abnormally stretched and oversold
  • Entry:
    • buy at reversal using 1-minute opening range highs / intraday breakouts
  • Stop:
    • around the low of the breakout bar, roughly ~2%
  • Target logic:
    • near the hourly 9 EMA / 21 EMA
    • also considers a nearby ~5-minute EMA cluster like 150
  • Exit:
    • sell all into strength quickly due to speed of move
    • mentions a very fast intraday move (subtitles suggest something like a “quick 13 hour move in just half an hour,” with timing phrasing inconsistent but meaning: rapid profit)

Position Sizing Math (Explicit Step)

  • Determine stop distance from intraday entry range.
    • Example given: if candle range is ~3%, stop distance might be ~2–2.5%.
  • Risk-based sizing example:
    • If account is $10,000 and risk per trade is 0.5%, risk amount is $50.
    • Position size ≈ $50 / 0.025 = $2,000, about 20% of portfolio.
  • General rule:
    • sizing stays roughly stable as a percentage due to consistent risk-per-trade and consistent stop distances.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

  • Richard Mglin (host)
  • Martin Luke (guest trader; “Top performer in US investing championship”; return numbers cited)
  • Christian Kula / Christian Kulamei (mentor/source; referenced for stop placement and breakout/EPS/parabolic knowledge)
  • Mark Minervini (book author on risk management/stop-setting; referenced)
  • Brian Shannon (credited with introducing Anchor VWAP / anchor VWAP usage approach)
  • Sponsor referenced: public.com (host says episode powered by public.com)

Original video