THEY ARE LYING TO YOU

Summary

The host discusses a sharp selloff in stocks and Bitcoin, arguing that panic may be creating a buying opportunity while acknowledging risks related to AI infrastructure spending and market volatility.

Market Moves and Macro Context

• The host describes the prior session as the stock market’s worst day in six years, with roughly $3 trillion in market value erased.
• NVIDIA fell 9%, Broadcom (AVGO) fell 9.5%, and AMD fell 15.5%. Some smaller AI-focused companies reportedly dropped 20–30%.
• The VIX rose about 70% in one day—a historically large daily move, according to the host—though it remained below peaks associated with the 2025 tariff turmoil, COVID, and 2008.
• The host says the market’s implied probability of a Fed rate hike declined as stocks fell. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected employment data—165,000 new jobs versus 70,000 expected, with unemployment also below expectations—could affect future Fed decisions.
• The host cites reports on X suggesting that the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a peace deal, while noting that the situation could change.

Bitcoin Technical Levels

Bitcoin had retreated to around its 50-week moving average. The host cites a prior low of $74,750 and recent trading and support in roughly the $73,000–$75,000 range, with $74,000 repeatedly acting as a key level.

A weekly close above $75,600 is described as a positive signal that could encourage buying. The host sees a bounce from the 50-week average as potentially bullish. By contrast, falling below it and remaining there could strengthen bearish expectations, including the possibility of new lows.

The host notes that temporary dips below the average have occurred during bull markets, but says Bitcoin generally needs to close back above it.

AI Infrastructure and Company Spending

A central market concern is that political or community restrictions could slow AI data-center construction and capital spending, affecting companies such as NVIDIA, which sells chips, and Amazon, which needs data centers to expand capacity.

The host discusses remarks from Texas’s governor-elect as a call for community protections and input, not a categorical ban on data centers. The host expects construction to continue, potentially with added costs, delays, or changes in location.

Amazon reportedly spent $20 billion more than expected in the quarter and said it would spend less in the next quarter. The host argues that large technology companies likely have contingency plans, and that spending may shift rather than stop, citing quarterly spending in the range of $50–$70 billion.

Selling Pressure and Potential Dip-Buying Signals

The host attributes some of the selloff to the collapse or severe losses of funds and 2×/3× leveraged ETFs, which may have triggered margin calls and forced selling. A fund or entity transcribed as “Leopold” is mentioned, but its identity is unclear.

The host identifies the following as possible signs of a buying opportunity:

• An index RSI below 30, indicating an oversold condition
• Prices near the 200-day moving average
• Extreme fear, unusually high put-call ratios, and heavy put-option activity

The host says they are buying and views downturns as attractive for investors with long-term capital, while hoping for another down day. These are the host’s opinions, not guarantees of a recovery.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), AMD, and Amazon (AMZN)
• VIX, RSI, moving averages, put options, and put-call ratios
• 2× and 3× leveraged ETFs
• USDT, mentioned in a trading-promotion offer

Promotions, Cautions, and Disclosures

The host promotes a crypto-trading platform transcribed inconsistently as “Bitfi” or “Bidfi,” advertising a deposit bonus of up to $2,000 and a separate end-of-month promotion of up to $10,000 in Bitcoin or USDT.

The host says the video is not financial or legal advice and urges viewers to do their own research. The host also says some links are affiliate links that may generate a commission, and warns viewers not to trust unsolicited investment or crypto messages purportedly from the host.

Presenters and Sources

• Presenter: My Financial Friend host; the host is not named in the subtitles.
• Other source referenced: An interview excerpt with the Texas governor-elect; the interview outlet and individual’s name are not specified.
• The host also refers to claims seen on X and to market data without naming specific data providers.