BUYING EVERY SHARE 🚨 Before The SpaceX IPO ‼️ Do Not Buy The SpaceX IPO Until You SEE THIS!

Topic: SpaceX IPO setup, lockups, retail allocation, and a “backdoor” proxy

The speaker argues that SpaceX’s IPO (NASDAQ: SPCX) could see near-term upside driven by:

• Limited float/supply (claimed to be “choked” at about ~4%)
• A large retail allocation (claimed to be around ~30% of the float)

They also warn that after early momentum, post-early volatility is likely once insider unlocks/rolling lockups begin.

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Timeline / key dates mentioned

• May 20, 2026: SpaceX files S-1 (released).
• May 4, 2026: SpaceX executes a 5-for-1 stock split (to lower share price / broaden accessibility).
• June 12, 2026 (as early as): SpaceX expected to list on NASDAQ under ticker “SPCX.”
• First ~10 days / first week or two after IPO: expected main period of upward momentum.
• Day ~70 / 90 / 105 (and beyond): additional unlocking milestones (tiered rolling release).
• Mid-December 2026: “full 100% unlock” completion (per the described stagger schedule).
• ~180 days: referenced as a traditional lockup reference point (speaker claims SpaceX differs from standard mechanics).
• August 2026: described as the start of “first wave” insider selling.
• Q2 earnings release: described as a trigger after which insiders can sell portions.
• Late 2027: “final close of acquisition” referenced for the mentioned EchoStar transaction.

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Instruments / tickers mentioned

• SpaceX: SPCX (NASDAQ ticker as claimed in subtitles)
• EchoStar “backdoor” proxy play: SATS (named as the ticker)
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class A (mentioned; no ticker in subtitles)
• Circle (mentioned; no ticker in subtitles)
• Robinhood, Charles Schwab (suggested as channels related to retail allocation/distribution)

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Core IPO / valuation / structure claims (key numbers)

IPO size & valuation

• IPO proceeds target: $40–$80 billion
• Target valuation: $1.75T to $2.0T

Share count / float / supply choke

• Total shares outstanding: ~15 billion
• IPO selling shares / float described: ~550–650 million shares
• Implied “tradable float” available to public:
  • ~4% of total shares
  • Claim: public gets ~4%, and supply is “artificially choked at only 4%.”

Retail vs institutional allocation

• Retail allocation mandated: ~30%
• Speaker contrasts with “normal” IPOs: retail ~5% typical
• If tradable float is ~4% of the company, then retail receives:
  • ~1.2% of total company shares (speaker’s arithmetic)

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Lockup / insider selling framework (methodology described)

The video claims SpaceX uses a tiered rolling release schedule over ~180 days, rather than one 180-day “everyone dumps at once” event.

Key claims:

• Elon Musk exception: 366-day lockup (no selling during that period, per claim).
• August 2026 first wave (after Q2 earnings): insiders can sell up to 20%.
• Performance bonus: insiders unlock an additional 10% early if:
  • The stock trades 30%+ above IPO price
  • For 5 of 10 consecutive days
• Additional unlock “chunks” at approximately:
  • Day ~70, ~90, ~105, etc.
• Unlock completion:
  • Mid-December 2026 (claimed 100% unlock).

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Expected price action & risk

The speaker expects:

• Upside push over the first ~10 trading days (or first week/two)
• Early volatility driven by:
  • retail demand
  • a tight float

Risk highlighted:

• Once unlock conditions are met (stock 30%+ above IPO for 5/10 days) and insiders begin selling, that can create downward pressure.

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Macro / company financial context used in the pitch (key numbers)

Starlink revenue concentration (claimed)

• Starlink accounts for ~61% of total revenue
• Example figures cited:
  • $11.4B out of $18.7B in 2025

Losses / capex risk (bear case)

• Net loss:
  • $4.94B net loss for 2025
  • $4.28B net loss in Q1 of the following year (as stated)
• Comparison: speaker likens the losses/spend profile to Amazon’s early period, implying patience may be required for forward-looking value.

AI / data-center cooling thesis (bull case)

• Speaker claims valuation drivers include AI data centers in space
• Cooling thesis: using “cold of space” to reduce costs vs terrestrial constraints (less water/electricity).

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“Backdoor” trade recommendation: EchoStar (SATS)

The speaker’s actionable idea is to own SATS (EchoStar) rather than directly relying on SpaceX IPO timing/allocations—framed as a proxy/beneficiary of SpaceX valuation and momentum.

Transaction details cited

• Deal size: $17B amended to $20B
• Payment mix:
  • Up to $11B in SpaceX equity (as described)
  • Remaining amount paid in cash and seller notes
• Ownership stake:
  • EchoStar gains about a ~2% equity stake in SpaceX

Price target prediction (EchoStar / SATS)

• If SpaceX lists near $1.75–$2.0T, speaker estimates EchoStar stake could reach about $31B
• SATS predicted price range:
  • $175–$190
• Current price cited in subtitles:
  • ~$130
• Implied upside mentioned:
  • about ~50% if $190 is reached

Why it’s framed as lower “IPO timing” risk

The speaker suggests SATS may capture benefits of SpaceX valuation without depending on IPO-day allocation or the IPO price itself.

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Explicit recommendations / stance (as stated)

• Do not buy the SpaceX IPO until you “see this” (instruction in the title/subtitle).
• Speaker claims they buy “every share” of their IPO target in their plan.
• For investors wanting a proxy:
  • Preferred “backdoor proxy” is SATS (EchoStar) with a stated target of $175–$190.
• Trading posture suggested for IPO buyers:
  • If participating in IPO-related buying, the strategy described is short-term trading (first week/two; first ~10 days), not a long-term IPO-day hold—due to unlock mechanics.

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Disclosures / disclaimers (not clearly shown)

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• The speaker frames the view as personal analysis (e.g., “I believe,” “I think,” “my estimate,” “I’m buying…”), but an explicit legal disclaimer is not captured in the text shown.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter (speaker): “Mo” (no last name provided in subtitles)
• References:
  • Elon Musk (including control/lockup claims)
• Documents:
  • SpaceX S-1 filing
• Other references:
  • “Barons and other financial analysts” (used for valuation/stake balloon estimate)
• Deal/transaction context:
  • EchoStar strategic investment / FCC clearance mentioned (no external links provided in subtitles)