⚠️ Политолог Колташов: про перспективы войны и экономики в 2027

Summary

Economist and political commentator Vasily Koltashov gives a strongly pro-Russian, anti-Western assessment of the war, Russian politics, and the economy. The claims and forecasts below are his views.

Ukraine and the War

Koltashov says Ukrainian forces remain capable of fighting despite losses, while civilians in the rear are increasingly weary of the conflict. He argues that President Zelensky’s government is not interested in a negotiated settlement and uses a controversial comparison with Nazi Germany to describe what he sees as a gap between the Ukrainian military and public mood. He also claims that Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural economies are suffering severe damage.

Trump and the West

Koltashov views Trump as more pragmatic than Biden and as someone Russia can engage with diplomatically, while still considering him an adversary pursuing U.S. interests. He argues that Washington wants access to Ukrainian land, industry, and infrastructure, and that Western powers seek economic control over Russia’s resources. He says Trump’s actions toward Iran have inadvertently raised energy prices, benefiting Russia.

Russia’s Economy and the 2027 Outlook

Koltashov advises against panic-driven cash withdrawals and foreign-currency purchases, saying the ruble could recover. He believes the economy weakened in 2026 but predicts a return to growth in 2027, helped by stronger commodity prices and Russian exports. He says this outcome depends partly on financial policy, including lower borrowing costs and a stronger ruble.

He also favors major infrastructure investment, such as high-speed rail, and expects housing prices to cool, potentially making homes more affordable for buyers.

Elections and Political Participation

Koltashov interprets recent elections as evidence of public consolidation and support for the president’s course. He argues that the presidency carries more weight than political parties and identifies limited citizen participation in party organizations as Russia’s main political weakness.

He characterizes the country’s political divide as patriotic versus neoliberal, using “neoliberal” to mean alignment with Western economic and political priorities.

Moscow, Wages, and Regional Differences

Koltashov attributes some discontent in Moscow to rising housing costs, slower income growth, and the city’s highly atomized social life. He cautions that average wage figures can be misleading: high earners, including some military personnel, can raise regional averages while many workers earn far less.

He says military-related income has brought money into some regional economies but has not benefited everyone equally.

Political Risks

Koltashov warns that a future liberal turn or leadership change could reverse Russia’s current policies. He calls for public vigilance and greater involvement of military veterans in civilian institutions. He cites Brazil and Egypt as examples of mass movements that, in his view, can push politics in directions other than the familiar “color revolution” model.

Presenters and Contributors

• Multichel — Host and interviewer; personal name not identified in the subtitles.
• Vasily Georgievich Koltashov — Guest; economist, historical sociologist, writer, and political commentator.