Setelah FOMC, Gold Berada di Titik Penentuan! Breakout atau False Break?

Overview: Gold vs USD around FOMC (breakout vs false break)

Context / Macro Drivers

• The discussion focuses on Gold vs USD, explicitly referenced as “XAU USD” (gold priced relative to the US dollar).
• After FOMC, the Fed stance is framed as hawkish because the 2% inflation target has not yet been reached, implying:
  • USD should strengthen
  • Gold should weaken
• Inflation datapoint mentioned:
  • Inflation printed at 2.9%
  • It was discussed relative to a forecast of 2.6%
  • The narrative ties this to progress toward the 2% target

Key Market Reaction (Gold price action around FOMC)

• During the FOMC release, gold was described as:
  • Initially up ~2% / ~400 pips
  • Later falling ~1000 pips, with an “extreme shake” extension to about ~1500 pips
• After the news, gold was said to return to a wide sideways range.
• Sideways range size (daily timeframe):
  • Approximately up to ~2,500 pips (top-to-bottom)
  • The coach corrected earlier confusion (between 1000 vs 2500).

Trading Recommendation (volatility / timeframe discipline)

• Because the chop is extreme, the coach advises:
  • Avoid trading lower timeframes such as H4 / H1 / M15 / M5
  • As timeframe gets smaller, “shaking will get worse”
• General approach:
  • Prefer scalping / quick trades during wide daily sideways
  • Avoid swing-style positioning while accumulation/sideways conditions persist

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Technical Levels & Scenarios for Gold

Major Resistance Levels (daily)

• 4,200
• 4,380
• 4,595
• 4,886

Support / Lower Bound Mentioned

• 4,029 (described as a “support limit”)

Retest / Near-Resistance Zone

• 4,100 (mentioned as a retest zone after an H1 diagonal trendline breakout)

Trade-direction Debate

• While gold remains sideways, analysts argue both up and down, since direction is not fully confirmed.

Short-term Scenario Framing

• Emphasis is on:
  • Accumulation first
  • Then a potential later “price explosion”
• Near-term objective example:
  • If 4,200 breaks, the next objective may be around 4,379 (as stated by the coach)

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Upcoming Macro Calendar / Catalysts

Tonight’s Events

• GDP
• Core CPI
  • “Core PC” is referenced (in context of inflation/price sensitivity)
  • Core CPI is tied to how the Fed may regulate interest rates later

Next Week’s Risk Event

• NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) is stated as next week, specifically the 7th
• Timing discussion:
  • Mentions the build-up around Wednesday/Friday windows
• Warning:
  • As NFP approaches, volatility increases and sideways ranges can widen
  • Often better to wait for the data release rather than trade prematurely

Strategy Implication

• Possible opportunity exists until the week’s NFP
• But NFP week may be choppy/sideways from Monday, depending on the state of the daily trend

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Methodology / Strategy Framework Used

Macro + Event-driven Context

• Treat major events (FOMC, CPI, PPI, NFP) as drivers of USD expectations (hawkish vs dovish).
• Those expectations then drive Gold (XAU/USD).

Two-stage “News Effect” Usage

• Trading considered in two ways:
  1. At the news release
  2. After the data is released

Timeframe Discipline

• When daily sideways is wide/high volatility:
  • avoid lower-timeframe swings
  • focus on smaller-scope tactics

Scalping Approach for Sideways Markets

• Prefer scalping:
  • Examples: M1 / M5
  • Target mentioned: roughly ~30 pips
• Rationale:
  • Scalping helps avoid getting punished by the large chop
  • Reduces sensitivity to the “big trend”

Entry/Exit & Risk Management Principles

• Place stop loss at the correct location.
• “Averaging down” is discussed only as something that might be possible if SL is strong/defined (no strict numeric rule given beyond concept references).
• Margin calls are framed as money-management (not a technical problem).

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Other Instruments Mentioned

Oil (geopolitical tension proxy)

• Oil referenced rising to about 84
• Mention of an “unclosed gap” at 88
• Implication suggested: geopolitical tension could later spill into gold

Crypto (BTC) brief discussion

• BTC levels mentioned:
  • Near 67,000
  • Possible correction/break around 65,600
  • Risk limit around 62.66
  • Mentions a target near 67,000
  • Also references a “drop before rise” that has “almost hit”

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Key Numbers & Timelines Extracted

FOMC Reaction (Gold)

• +~400 pips then -~700 pips
• Also described as reaching -1000 pips and extending to -1500 pips

Sideways Range (daily)

• About ~2,500 pips

Gold Levels

• Resistance: 4,200 / 4,380 / 4,595 / 4,886
• Support limit: 4,029
• Retest/near resistance: 4,100

Events

• Tonight: GDP + Core CPI
• NFP: next week, on the 7th

Tactics / Horizon

• Scalping: M1 / M5, targeting roughly ~30 pips

Promotional/Education Pricing (not market advice)

• “Gold COD X” discount described as:
  • Rp 4,500 to Rp 3,375,000 (formatting appears inconsistent in the source text)
  • Valid for 48 hours

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Recommendations / Cautions Stated

• If volatility is extreme and the sideways range is wide:
  • “No trade is best” (or trade only in a clear trend)
• During daily sideways:
  • avoid holding swing trades on lower timeframes (H4/H1/M15/M5)
• As NFP approaches:
  • expect more extreme shaking
  • often better to wait for data
• For current conditions (their view):
  • scalp rather than swing
  • don’t over-commit directionally during accumulation/sideways

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Tickers / Assets Mentioned

• Gold: XAU/USD
• USD (US dollar): FX driver for gold (not a ticker)
• Oil: referenced around 84 and 88 (instrument likely crude; no explicit ticker stated)
• Bitcoin (BTC): around 67,000, 65,600, and 62.66

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned (end of segment)

• Zia (introducer; trading coach)
• Coach Phantom (co-presenter/coach)
• Mr. Gema (strategy source; frequently referenced, including “Gold COD X” and updates)
• Mr. Irfan
• Mr. Nikola Sonale
• Mr. Widi
• Mr. Fauzi
• Mr. Rizki
• Handy Williams
• TWIF / Kak (commenters/handles referenced as sources of opposing views in chat)