Gold, Öl & Rohstoff-ETFs: Wann sie im Depot wirklich sinnvoll sind

Summary

Dr. Gerd Kommer says commodities are generally not a long-term return engine: after inflation, their historical returns have been close to zero. They may nevertheless diversify a stock-and-bond portfolio and provide temporary protection from unexpected inflation shocks, such as supply disruptions or geopolitical crises. He views them as a limited portfolio addition, not a core holding.

Commodities and How Investors Access Them

The discussion groups commodities into five categories:

• Precious metals, especially gold and silver, which are treated as a special case
• Energy, including oil, natural gas, and coal
• Industrial or base metals, such as copper
• Agricultural commodities and livestock
• Minerals, such as sulfur and bauxite

Kommer says roughly 40–50 commodities are especially important to the global economy. Investors generally cannot practically buy and hold commodities such as oil, wheat, or copper directly through a fund. Commodity ETFs typically use standardized futures contracts instead.

A futures contract sets a price now for a transaction and delivery at a later date. Kommer illustrates this with a rice farmer who agrees in spring on a price for part of the autumn harvest.

Returns, Inflation, and Diversification

• Over roughly the past 100 years, commodity prices have delivered almost zero real return overall—only slightly positive, at around 0–1% a year after inflation. Broadly, prices have tended to rise at about the rate of inflation.
• Short-term performance can differ sharply. The 1970s and early 1980s oil shocks, caused by OPEC supply restrictions, are an example of a dramatic price surge.
• Commodities may help during unexpected inflation shocks, such as supply-chain problems during the COVID period in 2020, wars, or other geopolitical disruptions. Kommer distinguishes these from persistent inflation associated with monetary policy, against which commodities are not a dependable general hedge.
• A commodity fund may not closely track a rising spot price for oil. Kommer emphasizes the long-run, inflation-adjusted behavior of commodities and the use of futures, but does not explain the tracking difference in detail.

Market-Neutral and Long-Short Commodity Strategies

Kommer describes market-neutral commodity ETFs as a newer, less common offering in the German-speaking market, available for roughly one or two years at the time of the interview. These funds combine long and short positions in futures. The aim is to reduce exposure to the overall market and capture relative performance between positions.

As a stock-market illustration, he describes buying a global stock index that excludes the US and shorting a US ETF in an equal amount. This creates exposure to the return difference between the two markets. The strategy could potentially benefit even in a falling market if the non-US market falls less. Kommer says available data for relevant commodity indices over the previous 25 years looked very attractive compared with conventional commodity investments, while encouraging interested investors to study the strategy’s history.

A short position, he clarifies, involves borrowing the asset before selling it. The investor later buys it back and returns it. Shorting is therefore more involved than simply selling something one does not own.

Portfolio Guidance and Cautions

• Kommer suggests keeping precious metals and other commodities as supplementary holdings, at around 5–10% of total assets or the portfolio, alongside a portfolio primarily invested in stocks and possibly bonds.
• The rationale should be a meaningful diversification benefit, particularly low correlation with the portfolio’s main component: stocks.
• Investors should understand the instruments and their risks before investing. Commodity funds use futures rather than simply holding the underlying physical commodity, and market-neutral long-short strategies are more complex than conventional commodity exposure.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

Oil, natural gas, coal, copper, gold, silver, uranium, rice, wheat, pork bellies, sulfur, and bauxite; stocks, bonds, commodity futures, commodity ETFs, a non-US stock-index ETF, and a US ETF. No ticker symbols are named.

Disclosure

The closing disclaimer says investments involve risk and that the content is not investment advice, but is provided for product information.

Presenters and Source

• Presenter: Martin Kerscher (the subtitles render the surname inconsistently)
• Guest: Dr. Gerd Kommer, bestselling author and wealth manager
• Source/channel: comdirect