Victor Davis Hanson: They Said Nazis Would Dominate, Then the Soviets. Now China

Overview

Victor Davis Hanson argues that American “declinism”—the belief that the U.S. is being overtaken by a rising rival—is a recurring pattern in Western history. He also argues that China should not be treated as an unprecedented threat designed to “replace” the United States.

Women’s Sports Policy and Legal Watch

Hanson begins by condemning changes in U.S. women’s sports policy, framing them as allowing men to compete in women’s athletics. He claims this harms girls’ scholarships, medals, titles, and safety.

He then points out that the U.S. Supreme Court is hearing two cases on January 13:

• West Virginia v. BPJ
• Little V. Hawks

He calls the outcome a potential “watershed moment” for protecting “biological reality” and fairness, and he urges support for Alliance Defending Freedom.

U.S.–China Relations and “Replacement” Fears

In the main commentary, Hanson shifts to U.S.–China relations and the Chinese American summit, saying that many observers—across political factions—are anxious that China will either replace the U.S. or surpass it militarily and economically.

He rejects these fears, arguing they are not supported by “empirical” comparison. Instead, he claims the U.S. remains strong across several long-standing drivers of national power and flourishing:

• Fuel and energy: The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas.
• Food: The U.S. is self-sufficient and a top exporter.
• Education and innovation: U.S. universities dominate globally, especially in STEM.
• Demographics: While fertility is below replacement, he claims the U.S. is still performing better than Europe and much better than China.
• Military strength: The U.S. spends heavily, has significant carrier forces, advanced weapons, and leads in space capabilities (including SpaceX).

Historical Precedents Against “Decline” Narratives

Hanson supports his argument with historical examples, claiming fears of replacement by rival systems repeatedly proved wrong:

• Great Depression → World War II: Critics argued fascist powers would outperform the U.S. By World War II, the U.S. defeated major Axis powers and outproduced them economically and militarily.

• Post–World War II → the Soviet Union: Fears that the USSR would bury the U.S. ignored that the USSR’s seemingly efficient system collapsed quickly.

• Late 20th century → “Japan Inc.”: Worries about Japan’s competitiveness and state-corporate fusion gave way to Japan’s long deflationary stagnation. The fear that Japan would replace the U.S. faded.

• European Union: Hanson argues the EU reduced traditional nation-state power and ultimately has not replaced the U.S. Instead, Europe is portrayed as declining and still not unified as a single nation capable of dominating.

Conclusion

Hanson concludes that China is best understood as a familiar historical rival within a Western pattern of exaggerated decline narratives—not as a fundamentally new phenomenon. He likens China to earlier rivals such as:

• Germany/Italy
• Soviet Union
• Japan Inc.
• European Union

He argues earlier “replacement” fears were ultimately exaggerated or wrong.

Presenters / Contributors

• Victor Davis Hanson (host/commentator, “for the Daily Signal”)
• Alliance Defending Freedom (mentioned; advocacy for supporting its initiative in the women’s sports and related legal/policy framing)