Se os números de LULA estão bons, por que ele está quase PERDENDO?

Summary

The presenter argues that Lula’s government can point to improved economic indicators yet still face an electoral defeat because many voters judge the economy by their day-to-day experiences, not by headline statistics. He says this gap could help Flávio Bolsonaro, though he does not present an election outcome as certain.

Employment

The video cites unemployment at 5.3% for the quarter ending in August 2026, described as a historic low. The presenter says the measure is not manipulated and that, using the same method, employment has improved compared with Bolsonaro’s government.

However, the unemployment rate counts someone as employed after even a small amount of work and excludes people who have stopped looking for work. A broader underutilization measure—which includes people who want more hours—is cited at 13%.

Informality and Job Quality

Informality is said to have fallen to 37.5% under Lula, from a peak of about 41% in 2019, but it still affects roughly 38 million people. The presenter supports labor rights while arguing that employment rules could be made clearer and more modern.

He criticizes the 2017 labor reform for leaving arrangements such as intermittent contracts in place, which can shift income uncertainty onto workers.

App-Based Work

The video cites nearly 2 million people working for ride-hailing and delivery apps in 2025. It describes long hours, lower hourly earnings than other private-sector jobs, limited social-security contributions, and costs—such as vehicle upkeep—that workers may not fully account for.

The presenter says these conditions help explain why low unemployment may not feel like secure or adequate employment.

Income, Prices, and Household Finances

Average real income is cited at R$3,560, up 5.7% from 2024. The presenter acknowledges gains under Lula, including minimum-wage increases and income-tax relief, but says average figures can obscure inequality and whether wages cover household expenses.

He emphasizes that food prices can rise faster than the general inflation measure. He notes that food prices rose less under Lula than under Bolsonaro, while still increasing.

He also distinguishes households that have debt from those in arrears: he cites 82% of families as having some debt, but 29.8% as having overdue debt.

Productivity and Economic Development

The presenter argues that Brazil’s underlying problem is weak productivity and a lack of higher-value production. He cites small productivity gains in recent years and contrasts Brazil’s output per work hour with the OECD average.

In his view, producing and exporting more complex goods and services—through investment, public procurement, subsidies, and universities—would support higher wages.

Overall Assessment

The presenter credits Lula’s government with lower unemployment, reduced informality, real income gains, and minimum-wage increases, while arguing that these improvements have not yet translated into widespread security or affordability. The resulting dissatisfaction, he says, can make voters willing to give an alternative candidate a chance, even if the economic indicators look favorable.

Presenter: Daniel Uchoa